Humanitarian assistance needs remain high, despite improving seasonal food availability

• Acute food insecurity remains severe in the conflict-affected states of Unity, Jonglei, and Upper Nile where large areas remain in Emergency (IPC Phase 4), despite the seasonal shift from the lean season to the harvest period. Emergency humanitarian assistance needs remain high.  

• Seasonal rains improved in recent weeks enabling crop conditions to recover from moisture stress caused by prolonged dry spells in June and July. August rainfall was near-average in most areas, but increasingly below-average in the southeastern Equatoria states and in eastern parts of Jonglei and Upper Nile states, where deficits of 25 to 100 millimeters were observed. Cumulative June to August rains were average, despite erratic seasonal performance in June and July and rainfall deficits in eastern areas. 

• Green harvests, currently underway in most unimodal areas, are contributing to increased food access and improving consumption, especially among poor households.  Green harvesting in Greater Upper Nile (GUN) is expected to begin in September, one to two months later than normal, due to conflict-related delays in planting, and replanting after early season crop loss. Significant reductions in area cultivated will limit green crop availability in conflict-affected areas.

• A continued decline in acute food insecurity is expected during the remainder of 2015 due to improved food access during the harvest period. However, in GUN, these improvements are likely to last only in the short-term. Large production deficits will limit recovery from prolonged food deficits experienced this year, in addition to the cumulative impacts of two consecutive severe and extended lean seasons.

Conflict intensity in GUN declined in August compared to recent months but fighting continued in parts of Unity and Upper Nile states. Sporadic clashes and persistent insecurity continued to displace populations, limit access to food, and prevent humanitarian assistance delivery, particularly in parts of Unity and Upper Nile states. Intermittent inter-communal fighting in Rumbek Center and Rumbek East counties in Lakes State disrupted agricultural activities.

Seasonal rainfall improved across much of South Sudan in recent weeks following prolonged dry spells in June and July. August rains were near-average in most areas, but increasingly below-average in the southeastern Equatoria states and in eastern parts of Jonglei and Upper Nile states where deficits of 25 to 100 millimeters were observed.  Cumulative June to August rains were average, despite erratic seasonal performance in June and July, and rainfall deficits in in eastern areas.

In areas of GUN where main season planting occurred, crop conditions are generally favorable, although planted area is well below average. Crop conditions recovered in most areas in August as rains alleviated crop stress observed in June and July. Recent field reports indicated good crop development in planted areas of Upper Nile State, particularly in Renk, parts of Melut, Maban, and Nasir, Maiwut, and Longochuk counties. Small quantities of green maize were available in August, but most green harvesting is expected to begin in September, one to two months later than normal, due to conflict-related delays in planting, and replanting after early season crop loss following prolongued dry spells.  A recent field assessment conducted by FEWS NET in Jonglei State found that crop conditions were favorable in the eastern counties of Akobo, Nyirol, and Uror counties, despite recent rainfall deficits. Seasonal availability of vegetables and wild foods also began to increase in August.

Atypical livestock migration due to conflict, the resulting overcrowding of herds, and inadequate livestock health services caused livestock disease outbreaks in Jonglei, Lakes, and Eastern Equatoria states. According to the FAO, diseases such as East Coast Fever that were previously confined to Greater Equatoria have spread through Jonglei and Lakes states causing animal deaths. In addition, Foot-and-Mouth Disease Serotype (SAT3), which normally spreads more quickly and can devastate entire livestock populations, was discovered in Lakes and Eastern Equatoria states. The rapid spread of disease coupled with limited veterinary services has caused elevated livestock deaths in the worst-affected areas of GUN.

Cereal prices continue to rise dramatically in key markets and current price levels are well above the five-year average. Sorghum prices increased by 23 and 67 percent in July in Juba and Wau, respectively. Current sorghum price levels in Juba are 111 percent higher than last year and 92 percent above the five-year average. The price of sorghum in Wau increased by 400 percent compared to July 2014 and 300 percent compared to the five-year average. Sorghum prices in Aweil remained relatively stable stable from June to July but are 97 percent higher than last year and 309 percent above the five-year average.

Humanitarian assistance delivery to GUN improved in July compared to the previous two months, particulary in Upper Nile and Unity states. In July, WFP reached 1 million people with food assistance in GUN and nearly 1.5 million people country-wide. However, ongoing fighting and insecurity continues to constrain humanitarian assistance delivery to worst-off areas.   

Assumptions made in the South Sudan Food Security Outlook for July to December 2015 remain unchanged.

Acute food insecurity is expected to decline county-wide as household access to food and income improves during the October to December harvest period. In GUN, harvests and increased seasonal food availability will improve food consumption, even in worst-off areas, but only in the short-term. Large production deficits will limit recovery from the cumulative impacts of two consecutive severe and extended lean seasons and prolonged food deficits experienced in 2015, especially among poor and displaced households who rely on sharing through kinship and humanitarian assistance to access food.