South Sudan

• The number of areas facing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes is expected to expand to 35 counties by May 2026, more than double that of December (14 counties). Severe outcomes are perpetuated by escalating conflict, the protracted impacts of flooding, high food prices, a deteriorating economy, and a high refugee and returnee presence, especially in the north and northeast. Acute malnutrition prevalence is projected to surpass the Critical threshold (15 percent) in 42 counties by May, with six counties surpassing Extremely Critical (≥30 percent): Duk (Jonglei), Rubkona (Unity), Abyei Administrative Area (Abyei), and Nasir, Ulang, and Baliet (Upper Nile). Preliminary partner assessments suggest acute malnutrition remains very high in parts of Fangak.
• Nasir, Ulang, Longochuk, and Panyikang (Upper Nile); Fangak and Canal/Pigi (Jonglei); and Panyijiar (Unity) will remain of highest concern through May. Of these, some households are expected to face Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) in inaccessible parts of Nasir and Fangak. Rising insecurity in December forced another pause in humanitarian food assistance deliveries to southern Nasir and the evacuation of humanitarian staff from parts of northern Jonglei. While food aid is planned through May in Canal/Pigi, Fangak, Nasir, and Ulang, access disruptions will likely prevent larger gains in food security. Meanwhile, funding cuts are expected to delay the start of the 2026 lean season response, which targets an additional 18 counties, until May.
• Intensifying conflict in Greater Kordofan, Sudan, has driven a surge in arrivals and temporarily disrupted oil exports. The South Sudan People’s Defense Forces (SSPDF) have deployed to safeguard oil flows in the short term; however, the risk of renewed conflict that results in a prolonged oil export shutdown remains. If this occurs, further economic deterioration would accelerate food prices and drive expanded Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes, with increasing households facing Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5).
• A risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) persists in Nasir through at least May amid ongoing humanitarian access disruptions and high levels of hunger and malnutrition. If conflict escalates to levels similar to or worse than early 2025, and the delivery of food assistance is restricted or prevented by the presence of armed actors, then Famine (IPC Phase 5) would likely occur.

This report provides an update to the October 2025 to May 2026 Food Security Outlook and November 2025 Key Message Update. The analysis is based on information available as of December 31, 2025.