Seasonal Monitor

The Deyr rains started in mid-October with moderate to heavy rainfall

October 22, 2015

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.
Partners: 
USGS

Summary

The Deyr rains started in the second and third weeks of October. These rains had varied amount and varied temporal and spatial distribution across the country. Moderate to heavy rains fell in many parts of the country, ranging between 25 and 100 millimeters (mm) between October 11 and 20 (Figure 1).  Localized areas in Galgaduud, Hiiraan, Bay, Bakool, Gedo and the Jubas received above 100 mm of rainfall. The rainfall estimate (RFE2) for October 11 to 20 was slightly below the 2001-2014 average in coastal areas and parts of Awdal, Bari, Sanaag, and Woqooyi Galbeed in the North, and parts Lower and Middle Shabelle, Lower and Middle Juba, and Gedo in the South (Figure 2). 

Situation

In the Northwest, localized light to moderate rains were received in late September. From October 11 to 20, most areas in Togdheer and Sool Regions, Hawd Pastoral livelihood zone in Woqooyi Galbeed, and southern Sanaag Region had average rainfall, but it was erratic in both its temporal and spatial distribution. Parts of Guban Pastoral and West Golis Pastoral livelihood zones received unusual, light to moderate rainfall even though these areas near the coast are typically dry at this time of year. The rains helped slightly increase water availability and facilitated some minimal pasture regrowth.

In the Northeast, light to moderate precipitation was reported in most of northern Mudug and Nugal Regions. In Bari Region, only localized showers fell in East Golis and Coastal Deeh Pastoral livelihood zones.

In many parts of the central regions, moderate to strong rains fell. Rainfall was between 50 and 75 mm from October 11 to 20 with typical spatial coverage in southern Hobyo District and Addun Pastoral livelihood zone in Galgaduud. Spatial distribution was less even over Hawd Pastoral livelihood zone. Most parts of the Hawd, the Cowpea Belt Agropastoral livelihood zone, and  the rest of Addun Pastoral livelihood zone received moderate rainfall. These rains supported the germination of cowpeas and caused a noticeable increase in water and pasture availability. However, in Coastal Deeh Pastoral livelihood zone, little or no rain fell.

In the South, satellite and field reports indicate that the Deyr rains started effectively in the second and third weeks of October. Some areas, including parts of Lower Shabelle, Bay, and the Juba Valley, had average to above-average rainfall earlier in October. Heavy to moderate rainfall with typical temporal and spatial distribution were reported in most pastoral, agropastoral, and riverine areas. According to satellite estimates, heavy rains of between 25 and 200 mm between October 11 and 20, fell in parts of southern Somalia (Figure 1). Rain gauge station measurements confirm the heavy rains. Over a span of two to eight days, 84 to 160 mm fell in Bay Region, 46 to 178 mm fell in Hiiraan, 22 to 149 mm fell in Bakool, and 25 to 48 mm fell in Lower Shabelle. However, the Deyr rains were localized and low in amount in some of the South, including coastal areas, southern Baraawe District in Lower Shabelle, southern Bakool to the west of Waajid, Rabdhuure, and Yed towns, and around Xagar in Lower Juba. The rains have helped increase access to water and pasture and facilitated the germination of early-planted maize and sorghum in agropastoral and riverine areas. No large-scale river flooding was reported, and the rivers’ water levels are near normal. However, there were some small-scale flash floods in Bay Region that damaged some underground food storage. 

The satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) shows near average vegetation conditions in most parts of the country, but there are some below-average conditions in parts of the South (Figure 3). This is likely due to the early end of Gu rains in these areas in May followed by the drier than normal July to September Xagaa season. The seven-day weather forecast for October 23 to 29 indicates continued dry conditions in most of Bari, Woqooyi Galbeed, and Awdal Regions of northern Somalia, and areas bordering Kenya. However, most pf central, southern, and northwestern Somalia are forecast to receive substantial rain. Similarly, strong rain is expected in the Ethiopian highlands in areas upstream of the Juba and Shabelle Rivers. Given this forecast, it is expected that the river water levels will rise over the coming days (Figure 4).

For more rain gauge data, please, contact so-hydro@fao.org or visit www.faoswalim.org.

About this Report

The seasonal monitor, produced by the FEWS NET USGS regional scientist and FEWS NET Regional Technical Manager, updates rainfall totals, the impact on production, and the short-term forecast. It is produced every 20 days during the production season. Find more remote sensing information here.

 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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