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Little to no Deyr rainfall received as of mid-October

  • Seasonal Monitor
  • Somalia
  • October 26, 2016
Little to no Deyr rainfall received as of mid-October

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  • Preface
  • Situation
  • About this Report
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    The October-December Deyr rains, which normally start in mid-October, have yet to start in most parts of the country. Light to moderate rains ranging 1-25 millimeters (mm) were received in localized areas of southern and central Somalia between October 11 and 20 (Figure 1). Localized pastoral and agropastoral areas in the Northwest also received rainfall amounts up to 50 mm. The rest of the country, which normally would have received 10 to 50 mm by this time, remained dry (Figure 2). 


    In the Northwest, moderate rainfall fell for two days in most parts of the agropastoral areas of Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed and in parts of West Golis Pastoral livelihood zone of Awdal. In Togdheer, no precipitation was received, although heavy clouds gave indication of rainfall. Similarly, no rainfall was reported in Sool or Sanaag, with the exception of some light and localized showers in pockets of pastoral livelihood zones.

    In the Northeast, rainfall performance was extremely poor in all livelihood zones and no precipitation was observed in most livelihood zones. However, moderate rainfall fell for one day in Hasbahalle of Hawd Pastoral livelihood zone in Eyl District of Nugaal, although rainfall was insufficient to replenish berkads. 

    In central regions, light to moderate rainfall fell in localized areas of Hawd, Addun, and Central (Cowpea) Agropastoral livelihood zones. However, no rainfall has been reported in all areas of Coastal Deeh livelihood zone. This rainfall was insufficient to adequately restore pasture or water resources. As rainfall was largely localized, rain gauge stations did not record any precipitation. Currently, livestock are heavily concentrated in few areas where some pasture resources exist.   

    In the South, localized, light to moderate rains were reported in areas of Bay, Bakool, Lower and Middle Shabelle, and Hiiraan. In Bay, localized, light rains were received in all districts except Dinsor and the Agropastoral High Potential livelihood zone of Burhakaba District. Rain gauge stations confirmed 73 mm in Baidoa, 32 mm in Berdale, and 5.5 mm in Qansahdhere. In Bakool, light to moderate rains fell in all districts except Tieglow and parts of Wajid and Huddur. Rain gauge stations in Hudur and Elbarde recorded 26 mm and 21 mm, respectively, over 2 days. In Hiran, light to moderate precipitation was reported in all areas, with the exception of localized areas of Buloburte and Jalalaqsi Districts. Rainfall improved pasture and water resources and supported crop development. However, in Gedo, Lower Juba, and Middle Juba, all areas remained dry during the reporting period. No flooding has also been reported in the riverine livelihood zones of Hiran, Gedo, Lower and Middle Juba, and Lower and Middle Shabelle.     

    The satellite-derived eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) shows significantly below average vegetation conditions in large parts of the southern Somalia and localized areas of central and northern regions (Figure 3). The below-average vegetation conditions are attributed to both below-average Gu 2016 rainfall and the continued deterioration of conditions with the poor start of Deyr rainfall. The seven-day rainfall forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association’s Climate Prediction Center (NOAA/CPC) forecast 20-60 mm of rainfall from October 25 to November 1 in large part of Bakool, parts of Bay, North Gedo, and part of Sool. The forecast also suggests 10-25 mm in parts of Hiiraan, Lower and Middle Juba, Lower and Middle Shabelle, and most central Regions. The rest of the country will likely remain dry in the forecast period (Figure 4). 

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    About this Report

    FEWS NET publishes a Seasonal Monitor for Somalia every 10 days (dekad) through the end of the current October to December Deyr rainy season. The purpose of this document is to provide updated information on the progress of the Deyr season to facilitate contingency and response planning. This Somalia Seasonal Monitor is valid through October 31, 2016 and is produced in collaboration with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU) Somalia, the Somali Water and Land Information System (SWALIM), a number of other agencies, and several Somali non-governmental organizations (NGOs).


    Figure 1

    Estimated rainfall (RFE2) in millimeters (mm), October 11-20, 2016

    Source: USGS/FEWS NET

    Figure 2

    October 11-20, 2016 rainfall anomaly (RFE2) in mm from 2005-to-2009 mean

    Source: USGS/FEWS NET

    Figure 3

    eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomaly from 2001-2010 mean, October 11-20, 2016

    Source: USGS/FEWS NET

    Figure 4

    Global Forecast System (GFS) rainfall forecast in mm for October 25 to November 1, 2016

    Source: NOAA/CPC

    FEWS NET’s Seasonal Monitor reports are produced for Central America and the Caribbean, West Africa, East Africa, Central Asia, and Somalia every 10-to-30 days during the region’s respective rainy season(s). Seasonal Monitors report updates on weather events (e.g., rainfall patterns) and associated impacts on ground conditions (e.g., cropping conditions, pasture and water availability), as well as the short-term rainfall forecast. Find more remote sensing information here.

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