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The Deyr rains started in mid-October with moderate to heavy rainfall

  • Seasonal Monitor
  • Somalia
  • October 22, 2015
The Deyr rains started in mid-October with moderate to heavy rainfall

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  • Summary
  • Situation
  • Partner
    USGS

    Summary

    The Deyr rains started in the second and third weeks of October. These rains had varied amount and varied temporal and spatial distribution across the country. Moderate to heavy rains fell in many parts of the country, ranging between 25 and 100 millimeters (mm) between October 11 and 20 (Figure 1).  Localized areas in Galgaduud, Hiiraan, Bay, Bakool, Gedo and the Jubas received above 100 mm of rainfall. The rainfall estimate (RFE2) for October 11 to 20 was slightly below the 2001-2014 average in coastal areas and parts of Awdal, Bari, Sanaag, and Woqooyi Galbeed in the North, and parts Lower and Middle Shabelle, Lower and Middle Juba, and Gedo in the South (Figure 2). 


    Situation

    In the Northwest, localized light to moderate rains were received in late September. From October 11 to 20, most areas in Togdheer and Sool Regions, Hawd Pastoral livelihood zone in Woqooyi Galbeed, and southern Sanaag Region had average rainfall, but it was erratic in both its temporal and spatial distribution. Parts of Guban Pastoral and West Golis Pastoral livelihood zones received unusual, light to moderate rainfall even though these areas near the coast are typically dry at this time of year. The rains helped slightly increase water availability and facilitated some minimal pasture regrowth.

    In the Northeast, light to moderate precipitation was reported in most of northern Mudug and Nugal Regions. In Bari Region, only localized showers fell in East Golis and Coastal Deeh Pastoral livelihood zones.

    In many parts of the central regions, moderate to strong rains fell. Rainfall was between 50 and 75 mm from October 11 to 20 with typical spatial coverage in southern Hobyo District and Addun Pastoral livelihood zone in Galgaduud. Spatial distribution was less even over Hawd Pastoral livelihood zone. Most parts of the Hawd, the Cowpea Belt Agropastoral livelihood zone, and  the rest of Addun Pastoral livelihood zone received moderate rainfall. These rains supported the germination of cowpeas and caused a noticeable increase in water and pasture availability. However, in Coastal Deeh Pastoral livelihood zone, little or no rain fell.

    In the South, satellite and field reports indicate that the Deyr rains started effectively in the second and third weeks of October. Some areas, including parts of Lower Shabelle, Bay, and the Juba Valley, had average to above-average rainfall earlier in October. Heavy to moderate rainfall with typical temporal and spatial distribution were reported in most pastoral, agropastoral, and riverine areas. According to satellite estimates, heavy rains of between 25 and 200 mm between October 11 and 20, fell in parts of southern Somalia (Figure 1). Rain gauge station measurements confirm the heavy rains. Over a span of two to eight days, 84 to 160 mm fell in Bay Region, 46 to 178 mm fell in Hiiraan, 22 to 149 mm fell in Bakool, and 25 to 48 mm fell in Lower Shabelle. However, the Deyr rains were localized and low in amount in some of the South, including coastal areas, southern Baraawe District in Lower Shabelle, southern Bakool to the west of Waajid, Rabdhuure, and Yed towns, and around Xagar in Lower Juba. The rains have helped increase access to water and pasture and facilitated the germination of early-planted maize and sorghum in agropastoral and riverine areas. No large-scale river flooding was reported, and the rivers’ water levels are near normal. However, there were some small-scale flash floods in Bay Region that damaged some underground food storage. 

    The satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) shows near average vegetation conditions in most parts of the country, but there are some below-average conditions in parts of the South (Figure 3). This is likely due to the early end of Gu rains in these areas in May followed by the drier than normal July to September Xagaa season. The seven-day weather forecast for October 23 to 29 indicates continued dry conditions in most of Bari, Woqooyi Galbeed, and Awdal Regions of northern Somalia, and areas bordering Kenya. However, most pf central, southern, and northwestern Somalia are forecast to receive substantial rain. Similarly, strong rain is expected in the Ethiopian highlands in areas upstream of the Juba and Shabelle Rivers. Given this forecast, it is expected that the river water levels will rise over the coming days (Figure 4).

    For more rain gauge data, please, contact so-hydro@fao.org or visit www.faoswalim.org.

    Figures Seasonal calendar in a typical year

    Figure 1

    Seasonal calendar in a typical year

    Source: FEWS NET

    Figure 1. Estimated rainfall (RFE2) in millimeters (mm), October 11-20, 2015

    Figure 2

    Figure 1. Estimated rainfall (RFE2) in millimeters (mm), October 11-20, 2015

    Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)/FEWS NET

    Figure 2: October 11-20, 2015 rainfall anomaly (RFE2) in mm from 2000-2014 mean

    Figure 3

    Figure 2: October 11-20, 2015 rainfall anomaly (RFE2) in mm from 2000-2014 mean

    Source: USGS/FEWS NET

    Figure 3. eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomaly from 2001-2010 mean, October 11-20, 2015

    Figure 4

    Figure 3. eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomaly from 2001-2010 mean, October 11-20, 2015

    Source: USGS/FEWS NET

    Figure 4. Global Forecast System (GFS) rainfall forecast in mm for October 23-29, 2015

    Figure 5

    Figure 4. Global Forecast System (GFS) rainfall forecast in mm for October 23-29, 2015

    Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/Climate Prediction Cente…

    FEWS NET’s Seasonal Monitor reports are produced for Central America and the Caribbean, West Africa, East Africa, Central Asia, and Somalia every 10-to-30 days during the region’s respective rainy season(s). Seasonal Monitors report updates on weather events (e.g., rainfall patterns) and associated impacts on ground conditions (e.g., cropping conditions, pasture and water availability), as well as the short-term rainfall forecast. Find more remote sensing information here.

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