Seasonal Monitor

Moderate to heavy rains continued most parts of the South but rains subsided in the North

November 30, 2015

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.
Partners: 
USGS

Summary

Both satellite-based estimates and ground reports confirmed that light showers to moderate rains of between 10 to 50 millimeters (mm) with typical to more even than typical spatial coverage fell in most parts of the southern and central regions and some parts of the northwestern region from November 11 to 20 (Figure 1). The heaviest rain was in the South, likely related to the ongoing El Niño. The rainfall estimate (RFE2) for November 11 to 20 estimates that rainfall was 10 millimeters (mm) below the 2000-to-2010 average in most parts of the Northeast and parts of Gedo, Bay, the central regions, and the northwestern regions. However, in most of West Golis Pastoral livelihood zone in the Northwest and the Jubas, and in pockets of Bay, Bakool, and Hiiraan Regions, rainfall was 10 to 50 mm above the 2000-to-2010 average, likely related to the ongoing El Niño (Figure 2).

Situation

In the Northwest, localized, light, but unevenly distributed rains fell in most parts of Northwestern Agropastoral, Guban Pastoral, West Golis Pastoral, and Hawd Pastoral livelihood zones in Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed Regions. Most of Togdheer received two days of rainfall with moderately even temporal and spatial distribution. Sool, Sanaag, East Golis Pastoral livelihood zone, and coastal areas received localized, moderate amounts rainfall with very uneven spatial coverage. Northern Inland Pastoral livelihood zone in Ceel Afweyn and Talex Districts had moderate to light rainfall. The remaining areas of the Northwest remained dry. Overall, pasture and water conditions in these areas are poor to typical. Conditions are especially poor in Awdal, Sanaag, and Woqooyi Galbeed Regions.

In the Northeast, little or no rainfall fell in most pastoral areas. Most of Bari Region was dry, but a few areas had light showers with typical spatial and temporal distribution. Similarly, no rainfall fell in Nugaal and northern Mudug Regions. In Hawd Pastoral livelihood zone of Gaalkacyo District and pockets of Garoowe District localized light showers fell. As a result, pasture and water availability in Bari Region are low. Conditions are slightly better in northern Mudug and southern Nugaal Regions due to average to good rains earlier in October and November.

In the central regions, light to moderate rains with good distribution were received in Cowpea Belt Agropastoral livelihood zone, but Ceel Dheer District had more moderate amounts of rains. Due to consistent rainfall since October, pasture and water availability in Cowpea Belt Agropastoral livelihood zone is average to above average, but the rest of central Somalia is drier.

In the South, most areas received moderate to heavy rains with mostly typical spatial and temporal distribution. Most parts of the Shabelles, the Jubas, Bay, and Bakool received average to above-average rainfall, likely related to the ongoing El Niño. Rain gauges recorded 30 to 111 mm over two days of rainfall in Bay and 46 to 70 mm over three to five days of rainfall in Bakool. Localized, light to moderate rains were reported in Hiiraan and Gedo Regions and parts of Lower Shabelle, particularly in rainfed, maize-producing areas. However, coastal areas of Lower Shabelle and the Jubas received little or no rain. No new large-scale flooding was reported between November 11 and 20, but river flooding continued in Xawaadley village in Jowhar District, and there were flash floods in few very localized pockets of Afgoye District. These floods covered and damaged crops. Overall, crop development is progressing well in most southern regions. Pasture and water are available throughout the South.

The satellite-derived eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomaly indicates that vegetation levels have increased during the above-average rainy season, likely in part due to El Niño, in many parts of the country, particularly in South-Central and pockets of the North. However, vegetation remains below the 2001-to-2010 mean in most of the North and parts of the South, particularly in the Juba Regions and coastal areas of Lower Shabelle (Figure 3). The seven-day rainfall forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association’s Climate Prediction Center (NOAA/CPC) indicates moderate to heavy rains of up to 40 mm are likely from December 1 to 7 in many parts of the southern regions, but that the rains are subsiding in the central and northern regions (Figure 4).

For more rain gauge data, please contact so-hydro@fao.org or visit www.faoswalim.org.

About This Report

FEWS NET will publish a Seasonal Monitor for Somalia every 10 days (dekad) through the end of the current October to December Deyr rainy season. The purpose of this document is to provide updated information on the progress of the Deyr season to facilitate contingency and response planning. This Somalia Seasonal Monitor is valid through November 30, 2015 and is produced in collaboration with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU) Somalia, the Somali Water and Land Information System (SWALIM), a number of other agencies, and several Somali non-governmental organizations (NGOs).

About this Report

The seasonal monitor, produced by the FEWS NET USGS regional scientist and FEWS NET Regional Technical Manager, updates rainfall totals, the impact on production, and the short-term forecast. It is produced every 20 days during the production season. Find more remote sensing information here.

 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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