Seasonal Monitor

Deyr precipitation continues with varying intensity and distribution across country; limited flash floods reported

November 27, 2019

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.
Partners: 
USGS

From November 11 to 20, the Deyr rains continued with moderate to heavy precipitation observed in southern regions and highly localized, light to moderate rainfall reported in some areas of central and northern Somalia. According to remote-sensing data (CHIRPS preliminary), cumulative rainfall in the South was 5-25 millimeters (mm) in most areas, though heavy rainfall amounts of 25-150 were recorded in the Jubas and Gedo. Localized areas in central and northern Somalia only accumulated minimal levels not exceeding 10 mm (Figure 1). During this period, rainfall performance was broadly climatologically average across the country compared to the long-term mean. However, positive anomalies of 25-100 mm were observed in the Jubas and Gedo while rainfall was slightly below average in parts of Bay and the Shabelles (Figure 2). Due to subsided rainfall in the river catchments in the Ethiopian highlands, no major riverine flooding was reported. However, limited flash floods were reported in localized areas of Bay. 

Situation

In the Northwest, light to moderate rains were reported in most livelihood zones of Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, and Sool regions in mid-November. Moderate to light rains fell in most livelihood zones of Togdheer and Sanaag regions. However, most livelihood zones of Taleex and Laasanood districts of Sool region and parts of Northern Inland Pastoral (NIP) areas of Sanaag received little to no rainfall. No flash flooding was reported during this period. The rains continued to improve rangeland and pasture conditions. Water availability and access are considered normal and above average in some areas. However, a locust infestation is occurring in rangeland areas in parts of Hawd Pastoral livelihood zone of Togdheer region, prompting some pastoralists to migrate to neighboring grazing areas.

In the Northeast, localized rainfall was received in Bari, Nugaal, and northern Mudug regions in mid-November. However, large parts of Northern Inland Pastoral and both livelihood zones in Aluula and Iskushuban districts received little to no rainfall. In Bari, localized light to moderate rains were reported in some areas of Northern Inland Pastoral, East Golis Pastoral, and Coastal Deeh Pastoral livelihood zones. In Nugaal and northern Mudug, localized moderate to heavy rains fell in Hawd Pastoral and Addun Pastoral livelihood zones. Cumulative rainfall since October remains significantly below normal levels across the Northeast, leading to atypical migration.

In central regions, rainfall performance localized to sparse in mid-November. Localized light to moderate rains reported in some parts of Galgaduud and southern Mudug, with high localized rains received in parts of coastal areas and in Cowpea Agropastoral areas in Hobyo, Elder, Harardhere, and Elbur. Rainfall was still more minimal across all livelihood zones in Dhusamareb, Abudwaaq, Adaado and most of Galkayo districts, which received little to none. Despite this dry spell, rangeland conditions are average due to rains received earlier in the season in October and early November.

In the South, moderate to heavy rainfall with fair distribution was reported across pastoral and agropastoral livelihood zones. However, parts of agropastoral and riverine areas of Hiiraan and Gedo regions experienced erratic rainfall distribution. Rain gauge stations recorded 107 mm in Afgooye (Lower Shabelle), 74 mm in Baidoa (Bay), 68.5mm in Jamaame (Lower Juba), 65 mm in Saakow (Middle Juba), 19.5 mm in Xudur (Bakool) and 17 mm in Beledweyne (Hiiraan). No major flooding was reported during this time as river water levels continued to subside as a result of reduced rainfall intensity in the Ethiopian highlands’ upper river catchments. The rains continued to improve rangelands as well as agropastoral Deyr crop development, but riverine cultivation has yet to begin.

According to the satellite-derived eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for the November 11-20 period, vegetation conditions have significantly improved across the country due to continuous precipitation since the start of the season in early October (Figure 3). However, vegetation conditions are relatively worse in the northeastern parts of the country given poor Deyr rainfall performance. The NOAA Climate Predication Center’s seven-day rainfall forecast ending December 2nd shows that most southern and central regions will likely see moderate to heavy rainfall of up to 100 mm. Dry conditions are highly likely for northern regions, except in large parts of Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed regions where moderate to heavy rainfall is likely (Figure 4). Due to a reduced likelihood of heavy rains in the Ethiopian highlands’ river catchments, no flooding is anticipated over the coming week. 

For more rain gauge data, please, contact So-Hydro@fao.org or visit www.faoswalim.org.

About this Report

The seasonal monitor, produced by the FEWS NET USGS regional scientist and FEWS NET Regional Technical Manager, updates rainfall totals, the impact on production, and the short-term forecast. It is produced every 20 days during the production season. Find more remote sensing information here.

 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

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