Southern and central regions received rainfall in the reporting period, but dry conditions prevailed in the north

Field reports indicate that parts of southern and central Somalia received localized light to moderate rainfall during the November 11-20 period. In contrast, most of the northern regions received little or no rainfall. According to preliminary CHIRPS remote-sensing data, the rainfall totals in the southern and central regions ranged from 5-25 millimeters (mm) or more, while totals in the rest of the country were below 5 mm (Figure 1). Across most of the country, rainfall totals recorded by remote-sensing data do not deviate from the long-term average (1981-2020) by more than 10 mm. However, rainfall totals in most of Bay, Gedo, Middle Juba, and parts of Lower Shabelle and Lower Juba experienced were 10-50 mm below average (Figure 2). Overall, cumulative rainfall since the start of the deyr season in October remains well below average across most of the country. According to FAO SWALIM river station gauge data, river water levels in most stations along the Juba river were below the long-term mean as of November 6. Conversely, most stations along the Shabelle river show varying water levels ranging from below to above the long-term mean. However, given the forecast of a dry spell in the Ethiopian highlands, the risk of flooding in both the Juba and Shabelle basins remains very low.  

In the northwest, ground reports indicated there was little to no rainfall across all the pastoral and agropastoral livelihood zones of the Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Sool, and Sanaag regions during the November 11-20 period. However, localized Guban Agropastoral areas of Borama and Baki districts (Awdal region) and Guban Pastoral areas of Berbera district (Woqooyi Galbeed region) received localized light to moderate rainfall. According to historical data and ground information, dry conditions during this period are not atypical. Overall, rangeland conditions in pastoral areas of Togdheer, Sanaag, and Sool regions are average to below-average following the positive impacts of near normal July-September Karan rainfall in Awdal and Waqooyi Galbeed regions and early deyr rainfall in other areas.

In the northeast, although remote sensing data suggest that most of the pastoral areas of Bari, Nugaal, and northern Mudug regions received little to no rainfall during the November 11-20 period, field reports indicated that localized light to moderate rain was received. In the Bari region, localized Northern Inland Pastoral livelihood areas of Iskushuban and Bandarbeyla districts received light showers, while East Golis Pastoral areas in most districts received localized light to moderate rainfall. Coastal Deeh Pastoral areas of Iskushuban and Bandarbeyla districts have also received localized light to moderate rainfall. In Nugaal and northern Mudug, little to no rainfall was reported, although localized areas of the Hawd Pastoral livelihood zone received light showers. As the overall deyr rainfall performance has been poor to date, rangeland conditions and water availability remain significantly below average levels.

In central regions, field reports indicated that precipitation varied across the pastoral and agropastoral livelihood zones of Galgaduud and southern Mudug regions during the November 11-20 period. Moderate rainfall with normal distribution was reported in Cowpea Agropastoral areas of Ceeldheer, Xararadheere, and Ceelbuur districts, while Coastal Deeh areas of Xarardheere, Ceeldheer, and Hobyo districts received localized light to moderate rainfall. Hawd Pastoral areas of Abudwaq and pockets of Hawd and Addun Pastoral areas of Dhusamareb, Adado, Galkayo, and Hobyo have also received localized light to moderate rainfall. Although recent rainfall has supported some improvements, rangeland conditions remain below average in many pastoral areas.

In the south, precipitation varied during the November 1-10 period. According to ground information, little to no rainfall was reported in most livelihood zones of Bay, Bakool, Gedo, and Middle Shabelle. However, most of Juba received moderate rainfall with fair distribution, while most areas of Hiraan, Southern Inland Pastoral and Sorghum Agropastoral areas of Lower Shabelle, and Luuq and Baardheere districts of Gedo received localized light to moderate rainfall. Meanwhile, rain gauge stations recorded 65.5 mm in Beledweyne (Hiraan), 33 mm in Saakow (Middle Juba), 29.5 mm in Dinsoor (Bay), 26 mm in Xudur (Bakool), 22 mm in Buloburte (Hiraan), 11 mm in Janaale (Lower Shabelle), and 1.5 mm in Jamame (Lower Juba). However, no rainfall was recorded at the rain gauge stations in Baidoa (Bay), Elbarde (Bakool), and Afgoye (Lower Shabelle). According to SWALIM’s river gauge station data on November 24, river water levels in most stations along the Juba river remained below the long-term mean. Conversely, most stations along the Shabelle river show variable water levels ranging from below average (Jowhar) to above average (Buloburte). However, water levels in all stations remain well below the flood risk level.    

According to the satellite-derived eVIIRs Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for the period of November 11-20, vegetation conditions in Somalia remain largely below typical levels. However, localized improvements are visible in most of the northern and central regions and in some localized areas in the south (Figure 3). NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s seven-day weather forecast through November 30 indicates that dry conditions are expected across the country (Figure 4). As a widespread dry spell is forecast in the Ethiopian highlands, river water levels in the Juba and Shabelle basins in southern Somalia are expected to remain stable or recede slightly over the coming weeks.

For more rain gauge data, please contact So-Hydro@fao.org or visit www.faoswalim.org.