Skip to main content

Light to moderate rainfall in parts of southern Somalia

  • Seasonal Monitor
  • Somalia
  • November 24, 2016
Light to moderate rainfall in parts of southern Somalia

Download the Report

  • Situation
  • About this Report
  • Partner

    While most parts of the country remained dry, light to moderate rainfall continued in large areas of southern Somalia from November 10-20. According to RFE2 satellite-derived images, parts of the Juba and Shabelle basins and some areas of Bay and Gedo received rainfall amounts between 10 and 50 millimeters (mm), with some pockets receiving up to 75 mm (Figure 1). The rest of the country, including most parts of Bakool, Hiran, and north Gedo of the South, and central, northeastern, and northwestern Somalia, remained dry. This equates to a rainfall deficit of 10-50 mm for most areas, compared to the 2005-to-2009 short-term mean (STM), during the reporting period. A few areas of Bay, Lower and Middle Juba, and Lower Shabelle received a surplus of 10 to 50 mm from November 10-20 (Figure 2).


    In the Northwest, little to no rainfall was received from November 10-20, further aggravating drought conditions in the eastern areas of the Northwest. Dry conditions are most severe in Northern Inland Pastoral livelihood zone, although conditions have also atypically deteriorated in Guban Pastoral, West Golis Pastoral, and Hawd Pastoral livelihood zones. In most areas, notably in Sool and Sanaag, vegetation conditions are the worst on record since 2001.  There is a severe shortage of water and pasture in these regions, and continued atypical livestock migration and livestock deaths were reported from November 10-20. 

    In the Northeast, atypical dryness persists as little to no Deyr rainfall has been received in this area. Pasture and water resources continue to be extremely limited. Livestock migration was reported from the Northwest toward Togdheer and Woqooyi Galbeed in search of pasture and water. Livestock body conditions are extremely poor and atypical livestock deaths due to starvation continue to be reported. 

    In central regions, most parts of Dhusamareb, Adado, and Abudwaq of Galgaduud, and Harardhere coastal areas and Hobyo of Mudug remained atypically dry from November 11-20. Although satellite-derived images showed little to no rainfall, field reports indicated that light to moderate rains fell in most livelihood zones of Elbur and Elder Districts of Harardhere. These rains partially improved pasture conditions, but improvements were short-term as a large influx of livestock from drier parts of the region, including Dhusamareb, Hobyo, Adado, and Abudwaq, quickly depleted improved pasture. 

    In the South, localized light to moderate rainfall fell from November 10-20 in large parts of the Shabelle and Juba basins and localized agropastoral and pastoral areas of Lower Shabelle, Bay, Middle Shabelle, and some parts of Gedo. Conversely, little to no rainfall was reported during this time in Bakool, or in most parts of Hiiraan and Gedo. Rain gauge stations recorded 5-7 mm of rainfall in Baidoa and Qandsahdhere and 68 mm in Dinsor of Bay and 30 mm in Sakow of Lower Juba. Shabelle River water levels have further declined; river water in Beletwein of Hiiran was at 3.2 meters by November 20. Any further reduction will severely impact the ability of farmers to engage in irrigated planting. 

    According to the satellite-derived eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), vegetation conditions remain significantly below average throughout Somalia (Figure 3), although isolated areas in South Central have improved.  The seven-day rainfall forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association’s Climate Prediction Center (NOAA/CPC) forecast  rainfall up to 30 mm in most southern regions and 20-60 mm in pockets of the Northwest (Figure 4). According to the forecast, the rest of the country will remain dry. 

    For more rain gauge data, please, contact or visit

    About this Report

    FEWS NET publishes a Seasonal Monitor for Somalia every 10 days (dekad) through the end of the current October to December Deyr rainy season. The purpose of this document is to provide updated information on the progress of the Deyr season to facilitate contingency and response planning. This Somalia Seasonal Monitor is valid through November 30, 2016 and is produced in collaboration with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU) Somalia, the Somali Water and Land Information System (SWALIM), a number of other agencies, and several Somali non-governmental organizations (NGOs).


    Figure 1

    Estimated rainfall (RFE2) in millimeters (mm), November 11-20, 2016

    Source: USGS/FEWS NET

    Figure 2

    November 11-20, 2016 rainfall anomaly (RFE2) in mm from 2005-to-2009 mean

    Source: USGS/FEWS NET

    Figure 3

    eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomaly from 2001- 2010 mean, November 11-20, 2016

    Source: USGS/FEWS NET

    Figure 4

    Global Forecast System (GFS) rainfall forecast in mm for November 23-29, 2016

    Source: NOAA/CPC

    FEWS NET’s Seasonal Monitor reports are produced for Central America and the Caribbean, West Africa, East Africa, Central Asia, and Somalia every 10-to-30 days during the region’s respective rainy season(s). Seasonal Monitors report updates on weather events (e.g., rainfall patterns) and associated impacts on ground conditions (e.g., cropping conditions, pasture and water availability), as well as the short-term rainfall forecast. Find more remote sensing information here.

    Get the latest food security updates in your inbox Sign up for emails

    The information provided on this Website is not official U.S. Government information and does not represent the views or positions of the U.S. Agency for International Development or the U.S. Government.

    Jump back to top