Moderate to heavy rains fell in most parts of the South in mid-November

Light showers to moderate rains ranging from five to 100 millimeters (mm) with average to good spatial coverage were received in most parts of the country including areas in the Northeast, parts of the Northwest, the central regions, and most parts of the southern regions, according to both ground reports and satellite estimates (Figure 1). The rainfall estimate (RFE2) for November 11 to 20 was 10 to 15 mm below the 2000-to-2013 average in most parts of the central and northern regions and as well most parts of the Shabelle and Juba Valleys. However, in most parts of Bay Region, rainfall was 10 to 50 mm above average (Figure 2).

In the Northwest, localized light to moderate rains were received in parts of Togdheer and Sanaag regions. Average to good rains were received in Sool Region except in some parts of Caynabo and Lascanood Districts. Parts of the Sool Plateau, East Golis Pastoral livelihood zone, and the coastal area of Sanaag Region received light to moderate rains. Most of Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed Regions remained dry. As a result of these rains, water and pasture availability increased. Average pasture and water availability was reported in most areas.

In the Northeast, light showers with average spatial distribution have been received in most livelihood zones. Iskushuban and Qandala Districts in East Golis Pastoral livelihood zone in Bari Region received very little rain, but four days of rain fell in parts of Ishushuban and Calula Districts in Coastal Deeh Pastoral livelihood zone in Bari Region. Pasture conditions and water availability are below average in most of Bari Region. However, no abnormal livestock migration has been reported.

In the central regions, light to moderate rains with average spatial distribution were received in most of the Hawd and Addun Pastoral livelihood zones. Most agropastoral areas received light showers, supporting more cowpea growth. In most parts of Mudug Region, light showers with poor intensity were reported.

In the South, most areas received heavy to moderate rains with average to good spatial and temporal distributions, according to both satellite-derived rainfall estimates and field reports. Most parts of Bay and Lower Juba Regions received heavy rains. Rain gauge readings from Baidoa, Qansaxdhere, and Bardale in Bay Region indicate 88.0 mm, 61.0 mm, and 40.0 mm of rainfall with two, two, and three rainy days, respectively. Average rains with average spatial distribution were received in most parts of Gedo, Bakool, Lower Shabelle, and Hiraan Regions. Pasture and water resources were available in these regions. Crops were in different stages of development. In Middle Shabelle, showers had poor intensity and poorly distributed and rather localized. However, early rains had supported crop germination, and pasture and water remain available. In Middle Shabelle, there was some additional flooding along the Shabelle River, but the damage thus far has been minimal.

The satellite-derived eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomaly indicates that vegetation levels have improved this season in most parts of the country. However, vegetation remains below the 2001-to-2010 mean in most parts of the South, particularly in the Jubas, Gedo, and Lower and Middle Shabelle (Figure 3). The seven-day weather forecast indicates moderate rains of up to 50 mm are likely from November 25 to December 1 in most of the South and parts of the Northwest. The rest of the country is likely to have dry weather (Figure 4).

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