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Moderate Deyr rains continued in many parts of the South in early November

  • Seasonal Monitor
  • Somalia
  • November 12, 2014
Moderate Deyr rains continued in many parts of the South in early November

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  • Summary
  • Situation
  • Partner
    USGS

    Summary

    Both satellite images and ground reports indicate that moderate to heavy rains between 20 to 75 millimeters (mm) were received in many parts of the southern regions (Figure 1). However, most of the central and northern parts of the country remained dry. A few pockets received light showers. The rainfall estimate (RFE2) for November 1 to 10 shows that the rainfall was 10 to 25 mm below the 2005-to-2009 mean average in most of the central regions including Hiraan and in the northern regions (Figure 2).


    Situation

    In the Northwest, most areas were dry from November 1 to 10. Localized, light showers were reported in parts of the Sool Plateau and the Nugal Valley in Sanaag Region. Crops in agropastoral areas in the Northwest are in normal condition and reaching maturity. A significant number of farms are being harvested in Gabiley District in Woqooyi Galbeed. However, from November 1 to 10, dry weather persisted in most of Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, and Togdheer’s pastoral areas. However, pasture and water conditions are generally average except pockets of Hawd and Guban pastoral which are in resource deficit

    In the Northeast, most areas including Coastal Deeh Pastoral, Karkaar-Dharor Pastoral, East Golis Pastoral livelihood zones, and the Sool Plateau remained dry. However ground reports indicated that some pockets in Bossaso, Caluula, and Qandala Districts received light showers.

    In the central regions, most of the Hawd and Addun Pastoral livelihood zones remained dry. In Hiraan, during early November, localized, light rains that were poorly spatially distributed fell in most of the region. The flood waters in Beletweyne town have receded, but there are still localized patches of land covered in stagnant water. With the withdrawal of flood waters, many who were displaced by the floods have started to return to their homes. The Shabelle River’s level has fallen in many areas, reducing the risk of additional flooding.

    In the South, average rainfall was received during the first ten days in November. Rains of moderate intensity fell in Lower and Middle Shabelle, Bakool, Lower and Middle Juba, and parts of Gedo Region. More intense rains that were evenly temporally distributed were reported in many pastoral and agropastoral areas of Bay Region. Rain gauge readings from Sakow in Middle Juba Region and Xudur in Bakool Region were 77 mm with four days of rain and 39 mm with three rainy days, respectively. The station located in Baidoa in Bay recorded 112 mm of rainfall with two rainy days. By and large, the rainfall replenished most water catchments and allowed germination and development of crops and pasture in both pastoral and agropastoral areas. These recent rains ended the dry spell in Lower and Middle Juba that started in early October. The Juba River’s level lowered in Middle and Lower Juba, but some farmland is still under flood waters.

    The satellite-derived eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomaly indicates better vegetation levels higher than the 2001 to 2010 mean in some parts of the North, likely supported by June to September Karan rains and more recent rainfall. However, vegetation remains below the 2001-to-2010 mean in most parts of the Northeast and the central regions and in most parts of the South (Figure 3). The seven-day weather forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association’s Climate Prediction Center (NOAA/CPC) indicates moderate rains of up to 30 mm are likely from November 13 to 19 in many parts of South-Central. Pockets in Sanaag and Bari are likely to have heavier rains of up to 75 mm. The rest of the country is likely to have dry weather (Figure 4).

    For more rain gauge data, please, contact So-Hydro@fao.org or visit www.faoswalim.org.

    Figures Seasonal calendar in a typical year

    Figure 1

    Seasonal calendar in a typical year

    Source: FEWS NET

    Figure 1. Rainfall (RFE2) in millimeters (mm), November 1-10, 2014

    Figure 2

    Figure 1. Rainfall (RFE2) in millimeters (mm), November 1-10, 2014

    Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/Climate Prediction Cente…

    Figure 2: November 1-10, 2014 rainfall anomaly (RFE2) in mm from 2005 to 2009 mean

    Figure 3

    Figure 2: November 1-10, 2014 rainfall anomaly (RFE2) in mm from 2005 to 2009 mean

    Source: NOAA

    Figure 3. eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomaly from 2001 to 2010 mean, November 1-10, 2014

    Figure 4

    Figure 3. eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomaly from 2001 to 2010 mean, November 1-10, 2014

    Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)/FEWS NET

    Figure 4. Global Forecast System (GFS) rainfall forecast in mm for November 13 to November 19, 2014

    Figure 5

    Figure 4. Global Forecast System (GFS) rainfall forecast in mm for November 13 to November 19, 2014

    Source: NOAA

    FEWS NET’s Seasonal Monitor reports are produced for Central America and the Caribbean, West Africa, East Africa, Central Asia, and Somalia every 10-to-30 days during the region’s respective rainy season(s). Seasonal Monitors report updates on weather events (e.g., rainfall patterns) and associated impacts on ground conditions (e.g., cropping conditions, pasture and water availability), as well as the short-term rainfall forecast. Find more remote sensing information here.

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