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Moderate Deyr rains continue

  • Seasonal Monitor
  • Somalia
  • November 22, 2013
Moderate Deyr rains continue

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  • Preface
  • Summary
  • Partner
    USGS

    Preface
    FEWS NET will publish a Rain Watch for Somalia every 10 days (dekad) through the end of the current October to December Deyr rainy season. The purpose of this document is to provide updated information on the progress of the Deyr season to facilitate contingency and response planning. This Somalia Rain Watch is v is produced in collaboration with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU) Somalia, the Somali Water and Land Information System (SWALIM), a number of other agencies, and several Somali non-governmental organizations (NGOs).

    Summary

    From November 11 to 20, 2013, field reports indicate moderate to heavy rains of between 10 and 50 millimeters (mm) were received in most of the northern and southern regions. However, rainfall was very light in most of the central regions (Figure 1). The satellite-derived rainfall estimate (RFE2) for November 11 to 20, 2013 was generally near the 1983 to 2012 mean, the long-term mean (LTM) (Figure 2).

     
    In the Northeast, Tropical Cyclone Three hit Eyl, Bandar-Beyla, and Garowe Districts in Bari and Nugal Regions with very heavy rains and strong winds between November 10 and 12. The storm caused the loss of human lives. Flooding and winds destroyed household assets including livestock and fishing boats. Associated flash floods damaged infrastructure, cutting off road access to coastal areas as well as communications infrastructure in these areas. Elsewhere in the Northeast, these rains further replenished water catchments and supported the pasture regeneration, especially on the drought-affected Sool Plateau. In the Northwest, uncommon, widespread, heavy rains were received in most areas. These rains brought by the tropical cyclone boosted water and pasture availability.
     
    In the central regions, ground reports indicate light showers of low intensity fell in most zones on November 11 and 12,. El Dhere and surrounding areas received heavy rainfall on those dates, but this was followed by almost no rain after that across the central regions. Cowpeas and sorghum are at their early germination stages in Central Agropastoral livelihood zone, the cowpea belt. Most areas reported normal crop development. Pasture and browse conditions have generally improved in most of the cowpea belt and in Coastal Deeh Pastoral livelihood zone in Galgadud and Mudug Regions. However, reports indicate most parts of the Hawd and some areas in Addun Pastoral livelihood zone, pasture conditions have not fully recovered from the dry season, and there has been opportunistic livestock migration in search of pasture. 
     
    In the southern regions, widely distributed, moderate rainfall continued in most pastoral, agropastoral, and riverine areas with pockets of heavier precipitation. Rain gauges collected 48 millimeters (mm) of rain in Jalalaqsi in Hiraan Region, 37 mm in Huddur in Bakool Region. In Sakow in Middle Juba and Dinsor in Bay, 47 mm and 92 mm of rainfall were recorded, respectively. Recent rains enhanced water availability with most water catchments now being fully replenished. Pasture conditions are average in most of the South. Crop development is at different stages. Exceptions to the general trend of moderate rainfall were found in parts of Gedo Region and the coastal strip from Lower Shebelle to Lower Juba where rainfall was minimal. 
     
    Following recent and ongoing Deyr rains, both field reports and the satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) indicate that vegetation including pasture and browse has continued to gradually grow (Figure 3). Exceptions with below average vegetation conditions include the coastal areas of the Jubas and Shabelles and agropastoral areas of the Jubas and Gedo Region. In these areas, NDVI is below the 2001 to 2010 mean. The Global Forecast System (GFS) precipitation forecast indicates that most of the South will continue to have moderate rains over the next week. However, agropastoral and pastoral areas of Lower Juba Region and most parts of the central and northern regions are expected to be dry. 
     
    For more rain gauge data, please, contact So-Hydro@fao.org or visit http://www.faoswalim.org.
    Figures Figure 1. Estimated rainfall totals, November 11 to 20, 2013 (RFE2) in mm

    Figure 1

    Figure 1. Estimated rainfall totals, November 11 to 20, 2013 (RFE2) in mm

    Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/Climate Prediction Cente…

    Figure 2: November 11 to 20 rainfall anomaly from 1983 to 2012 mean in mm

    Figure 2

    Figure 2: November 11 to 20 rainfall anomaly from 1983 to 2012 mean in mm

    Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/Climate Prediction Cent…

    Figure 3. eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomaly, November 10-20, 2013

    Figure 3

    Figure 3. eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomaly, November 10-20, 2013

    Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/Climate Prediction Cente…

    FEWS NET’s Seasonal Monitor reports are produced for Central America and the Caribbean, West Africa, East Africa, Central Asia, and Somalia every 10-to-30 days during the region’s respective rainy season(s). Seasonal Monitors report updates on weather events (e.g., rainfall patterns) and associated impacts on ground conditions (e.g., cropping conditions, pasture and water availability), as well as the short-term rainfall forecast. Find more remote sensing information here.

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