Seasonal Monitor

Moderate to heavier rains continued in most parts of the country

November 13, 2015

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.
Partners: 
USGS

Summary

Both satellite-based estimates and ground reports confirmed that moderate to heavy rains of between 10 to 100 millimeters (mm) were received in many areas of the southern and central regions from November 1 to 10, 2015 (Figure 1). Near average amounts of rain fell in many parts of the northwestern and northeastern regions, but there was still very little rain in many areas of Bari Region and coastal areas along the Indian Ocean. The rainfall estimate (RFE2) for November 1 to 10 estimated amounts 10 to 50 mm above the 2001-to-2010 mean in some parts of South-Central. Many areas had near average rainfall or rainfall up to 25 mm below the 2001-to-2010 mean (Figure 2).

Situation

In the Northwest, rainfall varied widely in its amount and distribution. Moderate rains with fairly even spatial distribution fell in Guban Pastoral livelihood zone in Lawyado and Zeylac Districts of Awdal Region. In agropastoral areas, rainfall was light in Gabiley District, moderate in Borama District of Awdal, and heavy in Woqooyi Galbeed Region. West Golis Pastoral livelihood zone in Hargeysa and Berbera Districts also had unusual showers, as these areas are typically dry at this time of year. Hawd Pastoral and West Golis Pastoral livelihood zones in Togdheer Region received moderate rains, but agropastoral areas in Burco and Oodweyne Districts received moderate to lighter rains.

In the Northeast, moderate rainfall with typical distribution fell in many parts of northern Mudug and Nugaal Region between November 6 and 9. In Bari Region, there was localized, moderate rainfall but temporal and spatial coverage were more uneven than usual in Coastal Deeh Pastoral livelihood zone in Bandar Beyla and Iskushuban Districts and Northern Inland Pastoral livelihood zone in Qardho and Iskushuban Districts. Also, very heavy rainfall and fast winds associated with the storm systems for Cyclones Chapala and Megh, storms that made landfall across the Gulf of Aden in Yemen, damaged infrastructure and buildings and caused livestock deaths in Caluula District.

In the central regions, moderate to heavy rainfall was reported in all areas. The rains further replenished water sources and increased the rate of pasture regeneration. Also, as a result of the rains, water availability has increased. However, a flash flood in Guriceel town of Dhuusamarreeb District destroyed houses and displaced residents.

In the South, substantial rainfall of average to above-average amounts fell. Above-average rains of moderate to high intensity and more spatial coverage than usual were reported in the Shabelles, Bay, and Bakool. In other regions, including the Jubas, Gedo, and Hiiraan, rainfall was closer to average in amount. Rain gauges recorded two to seven days of rain, with 25 to 56 mm recorded in Lower Shabelle, 33 to 147 mm in Bay, 49 to 160 mm in Bakool, and 64 to 115 in Hiiraan. These rains increased pasture, browse, and water availability and allowed further crop development, supporting livestock and crop production. Along the Juba River, there have been several intentional river bank breakages to allow both fishing and irrigated crop cultivation in several areas. From November 1 to 10, no floods were reported along the Shabelle River. The risk of floods along the Shabelle River has fallen. For example, the river water’s depth fell from 6.35 meters (m) to 5.0 m at Beledweyn, and from 5.5 m to 5.1 m at Jowhar. Some highly localized flash floods were reported in lowlands in Bay and Bakool Regions.

The satellite-derived eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomaly shows more vegetation than usual in most of the country, especially in South-Central (Figure 3). However, vegetation as measured by NDVI in coastal areas of the South and some parts of the Juba Regions are below the 2001-to-2013 mean. According to the seven-day weather forecast for November 14 to 20, rainfall is forecast to return to near average amounts in many areas. However, the forecast suggests particularly heavy rainfall is likely on the coast in the central and northern regions, likely posing a risk of flooding.

For more rain gauge data, please, contact so-hydro@fao.org or visit www.faoswalim.org.

About this Report

The seasonal monitor, produced by the FEWS NET USGS regional scientist and FEWS NET Regional Technical Manager, updates rainfall totals, the impact on production, and the short-term forecast. It is produced every 20 days during the production season. Find more remote sensing information here.

 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics