Seasonal Monitor

Moderate Gu rains continued in late April in many parts of the country

May 4, 2015

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.
Partners: 
USGS

Summary

Moderate to light rains ranging from 10 to 75 millimeters (mm) with normal spatial coverage and frequency were received in most parts of the country, including the parts of the North that had not yet received Gu rains earlier in April (Figure 1). The rainfall estimate (RFE2) for April 21 to 30 was about 10 to 25 mm above the 2005-to-2009 short-term average in most parts of the country. However, in some parts of Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed Regions in the North, rainfall was below average (Figure 2).

Situation

In the Northwest, moderate to heavy rains were reported in most of Hawd Pastoral livelihood zone, agropastoral areas of Togdheer Region, and Hargeysa District. Rains also fell in localized areas in Nugal Valley Pastoral and Sool Plateau Pastoral livelihood zones in Sanaag and Sool Regions. These rains replenished water resources and supported pasture rejuvenation, and crop germination. However, drier conditions persisted in of most of Sanaag, and Woqooyi Galbeed Regions, Talex town, eastern Lasanod District, West Golis Pastoral livelihood zone in Sheikh District, and northern Hawd Pastoral livelihood zone in Burao District.

In the Northeast, moderate to heavy rains fell in Hawd Pastoral, Addun Pastoral, and Coastal Deeh Pastoral livelihood zones in Nugal and northern Mudug. These rains improved rangeland conditions and fully replenished some berkads and communal dams. Flash floods in Galkacyo and Bacaadweyne destroyed some houses. In contrast, most of Bari Region remained dry, including the Karkaar-Dharor Valley, East Golis Pastoral, Sool Plateau Pastoral, and Coastal Deeh Pastoral livelihood zones. Nugal Valley Pastoral livelihood zone in Nugal Region also remained dry. However, moderate rains in late March followed sporadic light showers received in April have kept pasture conditions typical. However, pasture is less available in East Golis Pastoral livelihood zone and coastal areas of Calula, Iskushuban, and Qandala Districts of Bari Region.

In the central regions, most pastoral areas had typically-distributed, moderate rainfall. Significant precipitation was observed in cowpea-growing, agropastoral areas. In Hiraan, moderate to heavy rains with pockets of lighter rain fell in most areas. Rain gauges in Hiraan collected 68 mm in Buloburte, 74 mm in Beletweyne, and 76 mm in Halgan. Recent rains allowed further crop development supporting both germination and more mature growth. They also regenerated pasture and replenished water in catchments.

In the South, well-distributed, normal to above normal rainfall continued over much of the agricultural areas of Bay, Bakool, Gedo, the Jubas, Hiraan, and the Shabelles from April 21 to 30. With continued rainfall, Gu livestock and crop prospects are increasing. These rains were more intense in pastoral and agropastoral areas of Bay and Bakool, which encouraged sorghum planting and allowed further growth of already planted crops. Rain gauges recorded 128 mm in Baidoa and 129 mm in Dinsor in Bay Region with four to five rainy days. 88 mm fell in Xudur in Bakool, 78 mm in Afgoye in Lower Shabelle, and 117 mm in Jowhar in Middle Shabelle. Due to increased precipitation upstream in the Ethiopian highlands, water levels downstream in the Juba and Shabelle Rivers have risen substantially.  Flooding has damaged crops and property in some villages in Jowhar and Mahadaay Districts in Middle Shabelle. Pasture and water resources were available in these regions. Crops were mainly at the vegetative stage. However, in coastal areas in Lower Shabelle only very light, localized, and poorly distributed showers occurred.

The satellite-derived eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) indicates likely vegetation growth in many parts of the South and the central regions, likely due to rains in March and April (Figure 3). The seven-day rainfall forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association’s Climate Prediction Center (NOAA/CPC) indicates rains of up to 125 mm are likely through May 11 in many central and northern regions. With especially heavy rains of over 200 mm possible, some pockets in Nugal, Bari, and Sanaag Regions are likely to have flash floods. Most of the South is likely to have moderate rainfall of up to 30 mm next week (Figure 4).

For more rain gauge data, please, contact So-Hydro@fao.org or visit www.faoswalim.org.

About this Report

The seasonal monitor, produced by the FEWS NET USGS regional scientist and FEWS NET Regional Technical Manager, updates rainfall totals, the impact on production, and the short-term forecast. It is produced every 20 days during the production season. Find more remote sensing information here.

 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
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