Seasonal Monitor

Gu rains subsided in mid-May in many parts of the country

May 24, 2015

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.
Partners: 
USGS

Summary

Gu rains slowed down in most parts of the country from May 11 to 20. However, light to moderate rains ranging from 10 to 75 millimeters (mm) were received in localized areas of the northern, central, and southern regions. (Figure1). The reduction in rainfall in riverine and agropastoral areas of the South Somalia allowed a chance for weeding. The rainfall estimate (RFE2) for May 11 to 20 was about 10 to 25 mm below the 2005-to-2009 short-term average in most parts of the country. However, in pockets of Woqooyi Galbeed, Bari, and Nugal Regions in the North, and in Bay, Middle Juba, and Lower Juba regions, rainfall was near average (Figure 2). Both the Shabelle and Juba Rivers had their levels fall, reducing flooding risk along the lower ends of these rivers.

Situation

In the Northwest, localized light to moderate rains were received in parts of the Hawd in Burao, Buhoodle, and Lasanod Districts and in Hargeysa District. In addition, localized moderate rains fell in parts of the Nugal Valley, and West Golis Pastoral livelihood zone of Woqooyi Galbeed and Awdal Regions. However, agropastoral areas of the Northwest remained dry. Much of the maize is stressed or wilting.

In the Northeast, light to moderate amounts of rainfall were received in some parts of Bender-Beyla, Qandala, and Qardho districts. In addition, light showers fell in pockets of Bari and Nugal Regions. Overall, most of the Northeast was dry from May 11 to 20, resulting in some deterioration in pasture conditions and decrease in water availability. In some areas, livestock were outmigrated to the Hawd and Nugal Valley Pastoral livelihood zones in Nugal and Sool Regions.

In the central regions, There was no or just low or no rain in most areas.  Some very localized areas received moderate amounts of rain in the Hawd in Galkacyo District. Hiraan Region was mostly dry except for pockets of light rain in riverine areas of Jalalaqsi and Beletweyne Districts.

In the South, rains have similarly subsided. In the sorghum belt, which is a rainfed area including most of Bay, Bakool, and parts of Lower Shabelle and Gedo, trivial amount of rains were received in the agropastoral livelihood zones. Nearby pastoral areas also received trivial amounts of rain. Most rainfall gauges recorded no rainfall from May 11 to 20. Due to less rain than recent weeks in the river basins in the Ethiopian highlands and in Somalia,  both the Shabelle and Juba Rivers had their levels fall between May 10 and 20, reducing flooding risk, but there remains some flooding in parts of Middle Shabelle. Flood waters are receding in Jowhar, allowing some households to irrigate. In general, crops continued to develop, but some maize in agropastoral areas of Lower and Middle Juba were starting to show some signs of moisture stress.

The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) satellite vegetation estimates for most part of the country are average to above average (Figure 3). Following earlier rains in April and May, water, pasture, and browse availability throughout the country remains high. As a result, pasture is likely to remain throughout most of the country in the weeks ahead. However, in the Northwest, in Guban Pastoral, West Golis Pastoral, East Golis Pastoral, and Northwest Agropastoral livelihood zones, the NDVI trend indicates declines in vegetation due to low amounts of rain this season.

The weather forecast for the coming seven days (Figure 4) indicate that moderate rains, even some above 50 mm, are expected in most parts of the North with parts of East Golis Pastoral livelihood zone will likely receive greater than 200 mm. There is also a sign of a break from the persistently dry conditions in agropastoral areas of the Northwest with more than 75 mm of rain. Between 10 and 40 mm of rainfall is likely in Bay, Lower and Middle Shabelle, Lower and Middle Juba, and Coastal Deeh Pastoral livelihood zone in central Somalia. Rains are also expected to subside in the rivers catchments in the Ethiopian highlands and in areas in South-Central that border Ethiopia. This will minimize the risk of additional flooding.

For more rain gauge data, please, contact So-Hydro@fao.org or visit www.faoswalim.org.

About this Report

The seasonal monitor, produced by the FEWS NET USGS regional scientist and FEWS NET Regional Technical Manager, updates rainfall totals, the impact on production, and the short-term forecast. It is produced every 20 days during the production season. Find more remote sensing information here.

 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
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