Limited rainfall prevails across Somalia in mid-May after mixed performance between early April and early May

FEWS NET publishes a Seasonal Monitor for Somalia every ten days (dekad) through the end of the current April to June gu rainy season. The purpose of this document is to provide updated information on the progress of the gu season to facilitate contingency and response planning. This Somalia Seasonal Monitor is valid through May 31, 2023,and is produced in collaboration with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the Climate Hazards Center, the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU) Somalia, the Somali Water and Land Information System (SWALIM), several other agencies, and several Somali non-governmental organizations (NGOs).

For more rain gauge data, please contact So-Hydro@fao.org or visit www.faoswalim.org.

Between May 11 and 20 (typically part of the peak rainfall period during the April to Jun gu season), most areas of the country received limited and below average rainfall (Figures 1 & 2). However, localized light to moderate rains (around 10-25 mm according to data from CHIRPS) fell in much of Lower Juba and Bay regions and parts of Lower Shabelle, Awdal,  Woqooyi Galbeed, Sool, Sanaag, and Nugaal. Compared to the long-term (1981-2020) mean, the rainfall totals across most of the country are 10-50 mm below the average for this period. According to FAO SWALIM river station gauge data on May 24, monitoring points along the Shabelle River, including at Beledweyne and Buloburte, showed water at “bankfull” levels, with significant flooding occurring, especially in Beledweyne. Most monitoring points along the Juba River, on the other hand, indicated that water was below “moderate risk” and “high risk” flooding thresholds.

In the northwest, localized light to moderate rains were reported across most livelihood zones of Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Sool, and Sanaag regions in the May 11-20 period. These rainfall patterns were consistent with those observed from early April to early May. Meanwhile, the Guban Pastoral livelihood zone, which typically does not receive gu rainfall, experienced flash floods originating from the mountainous areas of the neighboring West Golis Pastoral livelihood zone, improving the rangeland conditions in that area. Overall, rangeland conditions across most areas are generally average to above average (Figure 3). However, field reports from certain localized areas of the Hawd Pastoral and Northern Inland Pastoral (NIP) livelihood zones of Togdheer, Sool, and Sanaag regions indicate that below-average pasture and browse conditions prevail due to insufficient rainfall. Consequently, there has been notable livestock migration from these areas to areas with relatively better pasture within these livelihood zones. This migration pattern is a typical adaptive response when rainfall performance varies.

In the northeast, little to no rainfall was observed throughout much of Bari, Nugaal, and northern Mudug regions from May 11-20. However, in Bari, light to moderate rains were received in localized areas of the NIP livelihood zone of Bossaso and Qardho and in parts of the East Golis livelihood zone. Similarly, in Nugaal and northern Mudug, only localized showers were reported in certain localized areas, especially in the NIP and Hawd Pastoral areas. In the Coastal Deeh Pastoral areas, little to no rainfall was received. Similarly, earlier in May, light to moderate rainfall and flash floods were experienced only in localized areas of the East Golis, NIP, and Hawd Pastoral livelihood zones. As such, below-average pasture and water conditions persist in most pastoral areas of Bari, Nugaal, and northern Mudug.

In the central regions, there was a notable absence of meaningful rainfall in all pastoral and agropastoral livelihood zones of Galgaduud and southern Mudug regions during the period of May 11-20. However, the agropastoral Cowpea Belt areas in Xarardheere district experienced localized moderate rainfall, which had a positive impact on cowpea crops and the availability of rangeland resources. Although localized light to moderate rains have been received across the pastoral livelihood zones in the central regions since the beginning of the season in early April, the overall rainfall performance – in terms of both cumulative rainfall totals and the temporal and spatial distribution of the rainfall – has been below average. As a result, many pastoral areas in Galgaduud and southern Mudug regions – which were particularly affected by the prolonged 2020-2023 drought – are still experiencing below-average pasture and limited water availability.

In the southern regions, rainfall performance varied from May 11-20. Most of Hiiraan, Bakool, Gedo, Middle Shabelle, and parts of Lower Shabelle, Bay, and Middle Juba – received little to no rainfall. However, light to moderate rainfall was received in most of Lower Juba and pockets of Southern Inland Pastoral and Sorghum High Potential Agropastoral livelihood zones in Lower Shabelle, as well as Sorghum High Potential Agropastoral areas in Baidoa of Bay region. Despite field reports indicating that light to moderate rainfall was received in these areas, the monitored rain gauge stations in the south recorded no precipitation. Overall, the gu rainfall performance since mid-April has been average to above-average in Bay, Bakool, and large parts of Gedo and Middle Juba. However, Hiraan, Lower and Middle Shabelle, and certain parts of the Gedo region have seen below-average rainfall. Meanwhile, the sudden rise in the Shabelle River water levels in upstream areas due to excessive rainfall inland and in the Ethiopian highlands resulted in extreme flooding in Beledweyne and neighboring villages. This led to significant population displacement, trade disruption, and increased need for humanitarian assistance.

According to eVIIRS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data for the May 11-20 period, much of the country has witnessed improved vegetation conditions due to the April-June gu rainfall. However, parts of the southern and central regions, especially in Hiraan, Shabelle, Galgaduud, and Mudug, and some northern parts of Togdheer, Sool, Sanaag, Bari, and Nugaal continue to experience vegetation conditions that are slightly or significantly below normal levels. According to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s seven-day rainfall forecast for May 25-31, most of Somalia is expected to receive little or no rainfall in that period. However, localized pastoral areas of Sool, Sanaag, Bari, Nugaal, and Mudug regions will likely receive light to moderate rainfall (Figure 4).

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Somalia Seasonal Monitor, May 2023: Limited rainfall prevails across Somalia in mid-May after mixed performance between early April and early May.