Dry conditions persist in central and northern Somalia; rains inadequate to break drought in the south

Somalia experienced a third consecutive 10-day period of atypically dry conditions from April 21 to April 30, with little to no gu rainfall received in central, northeastern, and part of northwestern Somalia. In the south and the rest of the northwest, ground information supported by remote-sensing data indicated light to moderate rainfall intensity, but cumulative totals are not yet sufficient to break the drought cycle. According to preliminary CHIRPS data, most of the Juba regions, parts of Gedo and Bay regions, and most of Woqooyi Galbeed received at least 25-50 millimeters (mm) of rainfall (Figure 1), while surrounding areas generally received 10-25 mm of rainfall. Most of central and northeastern Somalia received less than 10 mm. Compared to the 39-year average, rainfall is at least 10-25 mm below average across many southern and central regions and localized parts of the northwest (Figure 2). Rainfall in the rest of the north was considered climatologically average at this stage of the season according to satellite data, but ground conditions are extremely dry. According to FAO SWALIM river station gauge data as of May 6, water levels in the Shabelle and Juba Rivers are finally rising, with widely varying results. Water levels along the Shabelle River are below the long-term mean, except at the Jowhar monitoring point, where episodic heavy rain on May 1 significantly raised the risk of flooding. At the same time, the late April rains elevated the Juba River’s water levels above the long-term mean, but they still remain much lower than the flood-risk threshold.

In the northwest, the gu rains have yet to become fully established in most of Togdheer, Sool, and Sanaag regions, which received little to no rain during the April 21-30 period. However, most pastoral and agropastoral livelihood zones in Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed regions received light to moderate rainfall. Localized light to moderate rainfall also occurred in parts of West Golis and Hawd Pastoral livelihood zone of Burao, Sheikh, Odweyne, and Buhoodle districts in Togdheer Region. These rainfall amounts were insufficient to break the drought cycle, given that the severity of recent water deficits has resulted in higher-than-normal water demand for vegetation and water sources to regenerate. The drought is deepening in most of Togdheer, Sool, and Sanaag regions, and the continued depletion of pasture and water resources leaves little to support crop, fodder, or livestock production.

In the northeast, the long delay in the onset of the gu rains is resulting in one of the driest seasons on record in Bari Region, according to CHIRPS rainfall ranking data. Little to no precipitation has been reported across most of Bari, Nugaal, and northern Mudug regions since March. According to ground reports, only parts of Northern Inland Pastoral, East Golis Pastoral of Bari, and parts of Hawd Pastoral of Nugaal livelihood zones received localized light showers, which had little effect on rangelands. As a result, drought severity is deepening across the northeast as the lack of rainfall and above-average temperatures combine to further deplete water and pasture resources, leading to increased livestock emaciation and deaths.  

In central regions, most livelihood zones in southern Mudug and Galgaduud regions have received little to no gu rainfall since March. During April 21-30, only localized areas of Cowpea Agropastoral livelihood zone of Xarardheere and Ceeldheer districts received light to moderate rainfall. Ground conditions across most of Hawd, Addun, Coastal Deeh Pastoral, and Cowpea Agropastoral livelihood zones reflect extreme drought. Widespread pasture and water scarcity are crippling pastoral and agropastoral livelihoods, with severe to extreme impacts on household income and ability to produce or purchase food. 

In the south, most areas continued to receive some rainfall during the April 21-30 after a delayed onset of the rains in mid-April. Favorable rainfall conditions were reported in most of Bay, Bakool, and the Juba regions and in parts of Gedo and the Shabelle regions. In contrast, little to no rainfall was reported in most of Hiraan. During this period, rainfall amounts were 40-70 percent below average in Hiiraan, the Shabelles, Bakool, and parts of eastern Bay, northern Gedo, and part of Middle Juba. In contrast, rainfall during this period was near average in western Bay, southern Gedo, and most of Lower and Middle Juba. Rain gauge stations recorded 65 mm in Saakow (Middle Juba), 20 mm in Baydhaba (Bay), 15 mm in Beledweyne (Hiraan), 13 mm in Xudur (Bakool), 7 mm in Janaale (Lower Shabelle), and 6 mm in Jamaame (Lower Juba). Most Juba and Shabelle River gauges indicated that water levels were seasonally increasing. Despite the increase, the Shabelle river water levels remain moderately below the long-term mean. In contrast, the water levels recorded by most Juba River gauges show elevated levels above the long-term mean. In general, river water levels are beginning to swell following the initial onset of the gu rainfall inland and over the river basin catchments in the Ethiopian highlands.

According to the satellite-derived eVIIRS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for April 21-30, negative vegetation anomalies remain widespread. Despite some rain in the last two to three weeks, southern and central regions and large areas of the north show enormous deficits indicative of atypically poor cropping and pasture conditions (Figure 3). The NOAA Climate Prediction Center's seven-day weather forecast through May 10 predicts dryness will persist across most of central and northern Somalia and large parts of Bakool and Gedo (Figure 4). However, there are chances of moderate to heavy rain in southern Hiraan, Middle Shabelle, and coastal and adjacent agropastoral areas of Lower Juba.

For more rain gauge data, please contact So-Hydro@fao.org or visit www.faoswalim.org.