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Heavy Gu rainfall leads to further flooding in large parts of the South

  • Seasonal Monitor
  • Somalia
  • May 16, 2018
Heavy Gu rainfall leads to further flooding in large parts of the South

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  • Summary
  • Current situation
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    Between May 1 and 10, Gu rainfall was average or above average in large parts of the South, and average in most of northern and central regions. According to satellite-derived rainfall estimates (RFE2), 10-75 millimeters (mm) of rainfall were received across most southern regions and in localized pockets of central Somalia (Figure 1). Across wide areas of southern Somalia, rainfall totals were over 50 mm above the short-term mean (STM) (Figure 2). River water levels remain above flood risk levels and incidents of flooding were reported in several riverine areas of southern Somalia. Flashfloods were also reported in Bay and Lower Juba. Conversely, rainfall totals were below average in large parts of Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed of Northwest and in Lower Shabelle. In these areas, rainfall totals during the reporting period were 25-50 mm below the STM. mm below the STM.

    Current situation

    In the Northwest, light to moderate rainfall was reported in parts of Hawd Pastoral and West Golis Pastoral livelihood zones of Togdheer, Hawd Pastoral and Northern Inland Pastoral livelihood zones of Sool, East Golis Pastoral livelihood zone of Sanaag, and Northern Inland Pastoral livelihood zone in Erigabo and Lasqorey of Sanaag. In some areas of Sool, rainfall led to localized flashfloods. All other areas, including most of Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed, did not receive rainfall between May 1 and 10.

    In the Northeast, moderate to heavy rainfall was received in most parts of Hawd Pastoral, Addun Pastoral, and Northern Inland Pastoral livelihood zones of Nugaal and northern Mudug. In most areas of Bari, western Sool, and western Sanaag, light to moderate rainfall was received, with the exceptions of Alula, Iskushuban, and Qandala, which remained dry.

    In central regions, satellite-derived rainfall estimates indicate little to no rainfall was received between May 1 and 10. However, field reports indicated that moderate rainfall was received in localized areas of the Cowpea Belt Agropastoral livelihood zone, Elbur, Hobyo, and coastal areas of Harardhere and Elder. Field reports indicate all other areas received little to no rainfall during the reporting period.

    In the South, both satellite-derived rainfall estimates and field reports indicated continued moderate to heavy rainfall during the first ten days of May. Most areas received between 10 and 75 mm of rainfall, though Middle Juba, Lower Juba, and localized areas of Bay received over 100 mm of rainfall. Rain gauges stations recorded 122 mm in Dinsor (Bay), 35.5 mm in Beledweyne (Hiiraan), 100 mm in Sakow (Middle Juba), and 48 mm in Hudur (Bakool). River water levels remain above flood risk levels and incidents of flooding were reported in riverine areas of Beledweyne and Jalalaqsi (Hiraan), Maandheere of Jowhar (Middle Shabelle), Bulo Mareer of Kurtunwarey (Lower Shabelle), Sakow/Salagle (Middle Juba), and Bardhere and Luq (Gedo). Localized flashfloods were also reported in Burhakaba, Qansahdhere, and Dinsor of Bay and Afmadow and Dhobley of Lower Juba, causing damage to crops and infrastructure.

    The satellite-derived eMODIS Normalized Vegetation Index (NDVI) for May 1-10 shows above-average vegetation conditions in many areas of the country as a result of the above-average Gu rainfall (Figure 3). Field reports indicate vegetation remains below average in the Northeast and Guban Pastoral livelihood zone of the Northwest. The Climate Prediction Center’s seven-day forecast for May 15-21 forecasts heavy rainfall ranging from 30 to 125 mm across most areas of the country, including northern Somalia (Figure 4).

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    Figure 1

    Figure 1. Estimated rainfall (RFE2) in mm, May 1-10, 2018

    Source: NOAA CPC

    Figure 2

    Figure 2. Estimated rainfall anomaly (RFE2) in mm from the 2005-2009 average, May 1-10, 2018

    Source: NOAA CPC

    Figure 3

    Figure 3. eModis Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomaly from the 2007-2016 median, May 1-10, 2018

    Source: NOAA CPC

    Figure 4

    Figure 4. Global Forecast System (GFS) rainfall forecast in mm for May 15-21, 2018

    Source: USGS/FEWS NET

    FEWS NET’s Seasonal Monitor reports are produced for Central America and the Caribbean, West Africa, East Africa, Central Asia, and Somalia every 10-to-30 days during the region’s respective rainy season(s). Seasonal Monitors report updates on weather events (e.g., rainfall patterns) and associated impacts on ground conditions (e.g., cropping conditions, pasture and water availability), as well as the short-term rainfall forecast. Find more remote sensing information here.

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