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Average to above-average rainfall in the North and dry conditions in South-Central

  • Seasonal Monitor
  • Somalia
  • May 23, 2017
Average to above-average rainfall in the North and dry conditions in South-Central

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  • Preface
  • Situation
  • About this Report
  • Partner
    USGS

    Preface

    Between May 11 and 20, average to above-average rainfall was received in many parts of the North, but little to no rainfall was received in most central and southern regions. Northern areas received 10-75 millimeters (mm) of rainfall, with the exception of coastal areas where little to no rainfall was reported. In Lower and Middle Juba, average to above-average rainfall of 10-75 mm was received, but little rainfall was reported in all other southern and central areas (Figure 1). Total rainfall amounts received during the reporting period were 10-150 mm above the 2005-to-2009 short-term mean in the North and in Lower and Middle Juba. In most areas of southern and central Somalia, rainfall was 10-25 percent below average (Figure 2).


    Situation

    In the Northwest, light to heavy rainfall was reported in all areas. In West Golis Agropastoral areas of Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed, East Golis livelihood zone of Sanaag, and western areas of Northern Inland Pastoral livelihood zone, light to moderate rainfall was reported. In Guban Pastoral livelihood zone, one day of moderate rainfall was reported, which was atypical for this area that does not usually receive rainfall during this time. In Hawd Pastoral livelihood zone of Sool and most livelihood zones in Togdheer, moderate to heavy rainfall was received. Flashfloods were reported in Togdheer Agropastoral livelihood zone. Rainfall during the reporting period led to improvements in pasture and water availability. 

    In the Northeast, average to above-average rainfall was reported in Addun and Hawd Pastoral livelihood zones in northern Mudug and Nugaal, localized areas of East Golis livelihood zone in Qardho and Iskushuban Districts of Bari, and localized areas of Northern Inland Pastoral livelihood zone in Bari, particularly in Qardho and Bandarbeyl Districts. Rainfall during the reporting period was below average in all other areas of the Northeast. Coastal livelihood zones received little to no rainfall.  

    In central regions, rainfall totals varied across Galgaduud and southern Mudug. Localized light to moderate rainfall was received in pastoral livelihood zones of Elder, Harardheer, Elbur, and Dhusamareeb Districts. Cowpea-producing agropastoral areas of Elder, Harardhere, and Elbur also received average rainfall. However, little to no rainfall was received in all coastal areas with the exception of Elder and pastoral livelihood zones in Adaado District.  

    In the South, few areas received rainfall between May 10 and 20. Bay, Bakool, Gedo, and Hiiraan received little to no rainfall. Rain gauge stations in Bay recorded 0-10 mm of rainfall during the reporting period and no rainfall was recorded in Bakool. In Lower and Middle Juba, average to above-average rainfall was received in most livelihood zones, except parts of Badade District, where rainfall deficits have persisted throughout the season. Rain gauges in Jamamay and Sakow recorded 96 mm and 50 mm, respectively. In Lower and Middle Shabelle, light to moderate rainfall was received in most livelihood zones, although little to no rainfall was reported in Adan Yabaal and Adale Districts or in riverine areas of Balad, Marca, and Barawa. River flooding was reported in Balad District of Middle Shabelle, damaging standing crops in Maandheere, Deymo Samo, and Cadaadley villages. However, the river water levels have recently declined as a result of below-average rainfall and minimal rainfall in the Ethiopian highlands. River water levels in Beledweyne of Hiiraan were recorded at 5 meters, down from 6.5 meters in early May. 

    The satellite-derived eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) shows slight improvements in vegetation conditions in southern and central areas of the country as a result of recent rainfall, but conditions remain below average (Figure 3). The seven-day rainfall forecast for May 23-29 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association’s Climate Prediction Center (NOAA/CPC) forecasts 10-30 mm of rainfall in the North, with some areas receiving 30-80 mm of rainfall. However, most central and southern regions of the country are forecast to remain dry (Figure 4).

    For more rain gauge data, please, contact So-Hydro@fao.org or visit www.faoswalim.org.


    About this Report

    FEWS NET publishes a Seasonal Monitor for Somalia every 10 days (dekad) through the end of the current April to June Gu rainy season. The purpose of this document is to provide updated information on the progress of the Gu season to facilitate contingency and response planning. This Somalia Seasonal Monitor is valid through May 31, 2017 and is produced in collaboration with the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and the Somali Water and Land Information System (SWALIM).

    Figures

    Figure 1

    Figure 1. Satellite estimated rainfall in millimeters (mm), May 11-20, 2017

    Source: FEWS NET/USGS

    Figure 2

    Satellite estimated rainfall anomaly in mm from 2005 to 2009 mean, May 11-20, 2017

    Source: FEWS NET/USGS

    Figure 3

    eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomaly from 2001-2010 mean, May 11-20, 2017

    Source: FEWS NET/USGS

    Figure 4

    Global Forecast System (GFS) rainfall forecast in mm for May 23-29, 2017

    Source: NOAA

    FEWS NET’s Seasonal Monitor reports are produced for Central America and the Caribbean, West Africa, East Africa, Central Asia, and Somalia every 10-to-30 days during the region’s respective rainy season(s). Seasonal Monitors report updates on weather events (e.g., rainfall patterns) and associated impacts on ground conditions (e.g., cropping conditions, pasture and water availability), as well as the short-term rainfall forecast. Find more remote sensing information here.

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