Gu rains subsided in May in many parts of the country

Gu rains slowed down in most parts of the country from May 11 to 20. A 10-day dry spell was observed in southern and central regions and in large pockets of the North (Figure 1). However, light to moderate rainfall ranging from 10 to 50 millimeters (mm) was received in localized areas throughout the country. The absence of rainfall in riverine and agropastoral areas of the South is expected to negatively impact ongoing crop development. According to the rainfall estimate (RFE2) for May 11 to 20, total cumulative rainfall was approximately 10 to 50 mm below the 2001-to-2014 short-term average in most parts of the country (Figure 2). 

In the Northwest, there was no rainfall in most of Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed, although one day of light to moderate rainfall was received in parts of West Golis and Northwest Agropastoral livelihood zones of Hargeisa and Gabiley. In Togdheer Region, localized light to moderate rains fell in West Golis livelihood zone and parts of Hawd and Agropastoral livelihood zones of Burco and Odweyne. In Sanaag Region, localized moderate to heavy rains were reported in Northern Inland Pastoral (NIP) livelihood zone of Erigabo and Lasqoray, while the rest of the region received localized light to moderate rains. In Sool Region, light to moderate rains were received in most parts of NIP and parts of Hawd livelihood zone. The cumulative Gu rainfall in these regions has positively impacted crop development and the availability of water and pasture.

In the Northeast, dry conditions prevailed in most parts of Bari Region; however, localized showers fell in East Golis livelihood zone of Alula, Qandala, and Bossaso Districts. In NIP of Qardho and Bandarbayla, localized, moderate rainfall also fell. In Nugaal and North Mudug, average to above-average rains fell in most parts of NIP and Hawd livelihood zones. However, no rainfall was reported in Addun Pastoral or Coastal Deeh livelihood zones. Water and pasture conditions remain significantly below average in most of Bari Region, parts of NIP of Nugaal, and Addun Pastoral and Coastal Deeh livelihood zones.

In central regions, most areas remained dry. However, some localized areas of Galkayo, Dhusamareb, and Adado Districts received rainfall, although in significantly below average amounts. Due to past favorable rainfall in most regions, pasture and water are near average.

In the South, rainfall has general subsided in most regions. No rainfall was reported between May 11 and 20 in Middle Shabelle, Middle Juba, Gedo, or most parts of Bay and Bakool. However, localized, light rains fell in most livelihoods of Lower Shabelle, Lower Juba, and localized parts of Bay. Water levels of the Shabelle and Juba Rivers continue to rise due to precipitation in the Ethiopian highlands. Minor flooding was reported in parts of Hiiraan and Middle Shabelle. Due to below-average rainfall, farmers in Middle Juba have made several river breakages to access river water for cultivation. With a forecast of further precipitation in Ethiopia over the coming week, risk of further flooding is high along the Shabelle River. In general, crops in the key producing regions are near establishment stage, but are at risk of wilting due to moisture stress.

The satellite-derived eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) shows average to above-average vegetation conditions throughout much of the country (Figure 3). However, below-average vegetation conditions are present in large parts in the South, particularly in Shabelle, Bay, and Juba. The seven-day rainfall forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association’s Climate Prediction Center (NOAA/CPC) indicates that all regions will experience dry conditions. This will limit moisture for standing crops and negatively impact crop development, mainly in crop-producing southern regions of country (Figure 4).

For more rain gauge data, please, contact So-Hydro@fao.org or visit www.faoswalim.org.

FEWS NET will publish a Seasonal Monitor for Somalia every 10 days (dekad) through the end of the current April toJune Gu rainy season. The purpose of this document is to provide updated information on the progress of the Gu season to facilitate contingency and response planning. This Somalia Seasonal Monitor is valid through May 30, 2016 and is produced in collaboration with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU) Somalia, the Somali Water and Land Information System (SWALIM), a number of other agencies, and several Somali non-governmental organizations (NGOs).