Gu rainfall performance varied across the country

Light to moderate rains ranging from 10 to 50 millimeters (mm) with uneven spatial coverage and irregular frequency fell in most parts of the country from May 1 to 10 (Figure 1). However, average to above-average rains ranging from 100 to 200 mm fell in many areas of Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed while 50 to 125 mm fell in parts of Shabelle, Juba, and Gedo Regions. In most parts of the Northeast, central Somalia, and pockets of southern regions, the rainfall estimate (RFE2) for May 1 to 10 was between -10 to 10 mm of the short-term-mean (STM). Rainfall estimates were 10 mm above the STM in most parts of the Northeast and isolated pockets of central and southern regions (Figure 2). 

In the Northwest, average to above-average rain fell in all livelihood zones of Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed except for in Guban Pastoral livelihood zone and western Hawd of Hargeis where only light rainfall was received. In Togdheer, localized moderate to light rains were reported in both pastoral and agropastoral livelihood zones. In Sanaag, near average to below-average rains were reported in Northern Inland Pastoral (NIP) livelihood zone of Erigabo, Lasqoray and Elafweyn. However, East Golis of Erigabo received average to above-average rainfall. In Sool Region, moderate rains fell in most parts of Hawd Pastoral livelihood zone, parts of NIP of Taleex District, most of Lasanood District and localized areas of Xudun and Aynabo Districts. All remaining areas received little or no rainfall from May 1 to 10. Rangeland conditions have improved in areas that received rainfall.

In the Northeast, rain performance varied across districts and livelihood zones. In Bari Region, moderate rainfall fell in parts of East Golis livelihood zone of Qandala and Bossaso Districts, parts of NIP livelihood zone of Qardho and Bandarbeyla, and Coastal Deeh livelihood zone of Bandarbeyla. In Nugaal and North Mudug, moderate rainfall fell in most parts of NIP and Hawd livelihood zones while light to moderate precipitation was reported in parts of Addun Pastoral and Coastal Deeh livelihood zones. Pasture and water conditions remain below average in many areas, most notably in Bari Region.

In the central regions, significant amounts of rainfall were reported in most parts of Galgaduud and South Mudug. Average to above-average rainfall fell in Hawd Pastoral livelihood zone of Abudwaq District, most of Adaado and Dhusamareeb, and all livelihood zones of Harardhere, Eldhere, Elbur, and Hobyo Districts. However, parts of Hawd and Addun Pastoral livelihood zones in Adado and Dhusamareb received poor rainfall. Rain gauges recorded 20 mm in Harardhere, 70 mm in Eleder, and 100 mm in Elbur. The rains replenished water sources, regenerated pasture, and supported normal cowpea crop development. 

In the South, rainfall performance varied across regions. Average rainfall with good temporal and spatial distribution fell in most pastoral and agropastoral livelihood zones of Middle Shabelle, Lower Juba, and Gedo. Average rains also precipitated in parts of Lower Shabelle in the Southern Inland Pastoral (SIP) livelihood zone, high potential agropastoral zones of Afgoye and Wanlaweyn and riverine areas of Afgoye District. Light to moderate precipitation was also reported in parts of SIP and Hawd livelihood zones of Hiiraan, most pastoral, agropastoral and riverine livelihood zones of Middle Juba, Agropastoral Rainfed Maize livelihood zone in Afgoye and Barawe of Lower Shabelle, and localized areas of Gedo Region. However, agropastoral and riverine livelihoods zones of Hiraan, agropastoral areas of Qoriyoley and Afgoye of Lower Shabelle, and most livelihood zones in Bay and Bakool Regions received light to no rainfall. Rain gauges recorded 32 mm and 38.5 mm in Afgoye and Janale of Lower Shabelle, 61 mm in Sakow of Middle Juba, 20 to 66 mm in Bay Region, and 13.5 to 15 mm in Bakool. Throughout southern regions, crops are developing normally.

Vegetation conditions, as measured by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), are average to above-average in southern regions and parts of central and northwestern regions. However, due to poor rainfall, the vegetation conditions in large parts of the North and some central regions are below average (Figure 3). The seven-day rainfall forecast for May 13 to 20 (Figure 4) indicates that most parts of the country will receive little to no rainfall. However, heavy rains are forecast in parts of Bari and Nugaal Regions, as well as in coastal areas of Lower Shabelle and Juba Regions. The expected dry conditions may have a negative impact on crop development in the South and rangeland conditions in areas of the North.

For more rain gauge data please contact so-hydro@fao.org or visit www.faoswalim.org.

FEWS NET will publish a Seasonal Monitor for Somalia every 10 days (dekad) through the end of the current April to June Gu rainy season. The purpose of this document is to provide updated information on the progress of the Gu season to facilitate contingency and response planning. This Somalia Seasonal Monitor is valid through May 20, 2016 and is produced in collaboration with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU) Somalia, the Somali Water and Land Information System (SWALIM), a number of other agencies, and several Somali non-governmental organizations (NGOs).