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Gu rains subsided in mid-May in many parts of the country

  • Seasonal Monitor
  • Somalia
  • May 24, 2015
Gu rains subsided in mid-May in many parts of the country

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  • Summary
  • Situation
  • Partner
    USGS

    Summary

    Gu rains slowed down in most parts of the country from May 11 to 20. However, light to moderate rains ranging from 10 to 75 millimeters (mm) were received in localized areas of the northern, central, and southern regions. (Figure1). The reduction in rainfall in riverine and agropastoral areas of the South Somalia allowed a chance for weeding. The rainfall estimate (RFE2) for May 11 to 20 was about 10 to 25 mm below the 2005-to-2009 short-term average in most parts of the country. However, in pockets of Woqooyi Galbeed, Bari, and Nugal Regions in the North, and in Bay, Middle Juba, and Lower Juba regions, rainfall was near average (Figure 2). Both the Shabelle and Juba Rivers had their levels fall, reducing flooding risk along the lower ends of these rivers.


    Situation

    In the Northwest, localized light to moderate rains were received in parts of the Hawd in Burao, Buhoodle, and Lasanod Districts and in Hargeysa District. In addition, localized moderate rains fell in parts of the Nugal Valley, and West Golis Pastoral livelihood zone of Woqooyi Galbeed and Awdal Regions. However, agropastoral areas of the Northwest remained dry. Much of the maize is stressed or wilting.

    In the Northeast, light to moderate amounts of rainfall were received in some parts of Bender-Beyla, Qandala, and Qardho districts. In addition, light showers fell in pockets of Bari and Nugal Regions. Overall, most of the Northeast was dry from May 11 to 20, resulting in some deterioration in pasture conditions and decrease in water availability. In some areas, livestock were outmigrated to the Hawd and Nugal Valley Pastoral livelihood zones in Nugal and Sool Regions.

    In the central regions, There was no or just low or no rain in most areas.  Some very localized areas received moderate amounts of rain in the Hawd in Galkacyo District. Hiraan Region was mostly dry except for pockets of light rain in riverine areas of Jalalaqsi and Beletweyne Districts.

    In the South, rains have similarly subsided. In the sorghum belt, which is a rainfed area including most of Bay, Bakool, and parts of Lower Shabelle and Gedo, trivial amount of rains were received in the agropastoral livelihood zones. Nearby pastoral areas also received trivial amounts of rain. Most rainfall gauges recorded no rainfall from May 11 to 20. Due to less rain than recent weeks in the river basins in the Ethiopian highlands and in Somalia,  both the Shabelle and Juba Rivers had their levels fall between May 10 and 20, reducing flooding risk, but there remains some flooding in parts of Middle Shabelle. Flood waters are receding in Jowhar, allowing some households to irrigate. In general, crops continued to develop, but some maize in agropastoral areas of Lower and Middle Juba were starting to show some signs of moisture stress.

    The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) satellite vegetation estimates for most part of the country are average to above average (Figure 3). Following earlier rains in April and May, water, pasture, and browse availability throughout the country remains high. As a result, pasture is likely to remain throughout most of the country in the weeks ahead. However, in the Northwest, in Guban Pastoral, West Golis Pastoral, East Golis Pastoral, and Northwest Agropastoral livelihood zones, the NDVI trend indicates declines in vegetation due to low amounts of rain this season.

    The weather forecast for the coming seven days (Figure 4) indicate that moderate rains, even some above 50 mm, are expected in most parts of the North with parts of East Golis Pastoral livelihood zone will likely receive greater than 200 mm. There is also a sign of a break from the persistently dry conditions in agropastoral areas of the Northwest with more than 75 mm of rain. Between 10 and 40 mm of rainfall is likely in Bay, Lower and Middle Shabelle, Lower and Middle Juba, and Coastal Deeh Pastoral livelihood zone in central Somalia. Rains are also expected to subside in the rivers catchments in the Ethiopian highlands and in areas in South-Central that border Ethiopia. This will minimize the risk of additional flooding.

    For more rain gauge data, please, contact So-Hydro@fao.org or visit www.faoswalim.org.

    Figures Seasonal calendar in a typical year

    Figure 1

    Seasonal calendar in a typical year

    Source: FEWS NET

    Figure 1. Estimated rainfall (RFE2) totals in millimeters (mm), May 11-20, 2015

    Figure 2

    Figure 1. Estimated rainfall (RFE2) totals in millimeters (mm), May 11-20, 2015

    Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)/FEWS NET

    Figure 2: May 11-20, 2015 rainfall anomaly (RFE2) in mm from 2005 to 2009 mean

    Figure 3

    Figure 2: May 11-20, 2015 rainfall anomaly (RFE2) in mm from 2005 to 2009 mean

    Source: USGS/FEWS NET

    Figure 3. eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomaly from 2001-2010 mean, May 11-20, 2015

    Figure 4

    Figure 3. eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomaly from 2001-2010 mean, May 11-20, 2015

    Source: USGS/FEWS NET

    Figure 4.Global Forecast System (GFS) rainfall forecast in mm for May 25 to 31, 2015

    Figure 5

    Figure 4.Global Forecast System (GFS) rainfall forecast in mm for May 25 to 31, 2015

    Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/Climate Prediction Cente…

    FEWS NET’s Seasonal Monitor reports are produced for Central America and the Caribbean, West Africa, East Africa, Central Asia, and Somalia every 10-to-30 days during the region’s respective rainy season(s). Seasonal Monitors report updates on weather events (e.g., rainfall patterns) and associated impacts on ground conditions (e.g., cropping conditions, pasture and water availability), as well as the short-term rainfall forecast. Find more remote sensing information here.

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