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Moderate Gu rains continued in late April in many parts of the country

  • Seasonal Monitor
  • Somalia
  • May 4, 2015
Moderate Gu rains continued in late April in many parts of the country

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    Moderate to light rains ranging from 10 to 75 millimeters (mm) with normal spatial coverage and frequency were received in most parts of the country, including the parts of the North that had not yet received Gu rains earlier in April (Figure 1). The rainfall estimate (RFE2) for April 21 to 30 was about 10 to 25 mm above the 2005-to-2009 short-term average in most parts of the country. However, in some parts of Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed Regions in the North, rainfall was below average (Figure 2).


    In the Northwest, moderate to heavy rains were reported in most of Hawd Pastoral livelihood zone, agropastoral areas of Togdheer Region, and Hargeysa District. Rains also fell in localized areas in Nugal Valley Pastoral and Sool Plateau Pastoral livelihood zones in Sanaag and Sool Regions. These rains replenished water resources and supported pasture rejuvenation, and crop germination. However, drier conditions persisted in of most of Sanaag, and Woqooyi Galbeed Regions, Talex town, eastern Lasanod District, West Golis Pastoral livelihood zone in Sheikh District, and northern Hawd Pastoral livelihood zone in Burao District.

    In the Northeast, moderate to heavy rains fell in Hawd Pastoral, Addun Pastoral, and Coastal Deeh Pastoral livelihood zones in Nugal and northern Mudug. These rains improved rangeland conditions and fully replenished some berkads and communal dams. Flash floods in Galkacyo and Bacaadweyne destroyed some houses. In contrast, most of Bari Region remained dry, including the Karkaar-Dharor Valley, East Golis Pastoral, Sool Plateau Pastoral, and Coastal Deeh Pastoral livelihood zones. Nugal Valley Pastoral livelihood zone in Nugal Region also remained dry. However, moderate rains in late March followed sporadic light showers received in April have kept pasture conditions typical. However, pasture is less available in East Golis Pastoral livelihood zone and coastal areas of Calula, Iskushuban, and Qandala Districts of Bari Region.

    In the central regions, most pastoral areas had typically-distributed, moderate rainfall. Significant precipitation was observed in cowpea-growing, agropastoral areas. In Hiraan, moderate to heavy rains with pockets of lighter rain fell in most areas. Rain gauges in Hiraan collected 68 mm in Buloburte, 74 mm in Beletweyne, and 76 mm in Halgan. Recent rains allowed further crop development supporting both germination and more mature growth. They also regenerated pasture and replenished water in catchments.

    In the South, well-distributed, normal to above normal rainfall continued over much of the agricultural areas of Bay, Bakool, Gedo, the Jubas, Hiraan, and the Shabelles from April 21 to 30. With continued rainfall, Gu livestock and crop prospects are increasing. These rains were more intense in pastoral and agropastoral areas of Bay and Bakool, which encouraged sorghum planting and allowed further growth of already planted crops. Rain gauges recorded 128 mm in Baidoa and 129 mm in Dinsor in Bay Region with four to five rainy days. 88 mm fell in Xudur in Bakool, 78 mm in Afgoye in Lower Shabelle, and 117 mm in Jowhar in Middle Shabelle. Due to increased precipitation upstream in the Ethiopian highlands, water levels downstream in the Juba and Shabelle Rivers have risen substantially.  Flooding has damaged crops and property in some villages in Jowhar and Mahadaay Districts in Middle Shabelle. Pasture and water resources were available in these regions. Crops were mainly at the vegetative stage. However, in coastal areas in Lower Shabelle only very light, localized, and poorly distributed showers occurred.

    The satellite-derived eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) indicates likely vegetation growth in many parts of the South and the central regions, likely due to rains in March and April (Figure 3). The seven-day rainfall forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association’s Climate Prediction Center (NOAA/CPC) indicates rains of up to 125 mm are likely through May 11 in many central and northern regions. With especially heavy rains of over 200 mm possible, some pockets in Nugal, Bari, and Sanaag Regions are likely to have flash floods. Most of the South is likely to have moderate rainfall of up to 30 mm next week (Figure 4).

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    Figures Seasonal calendar in a typical year

    Figure 1

    Seasonal calendar in a typical year

    Source: FEWS NET

    Figure 1. Estimated rainfall (RFE2) in millimeters (mm), April 21 to 30, 2015

    Figure 2

    Figure 1. Estimated rainfall (RFE2) in millimeters (mm), April 21 to 30, 2015

    Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)/FEWS NET

    Figure 2: April 21 to 30, 2015 rainfall anomaly (RFE2) in mm from 2005-to-2009 mean

    Figure 3

    Figure 2: April 21 to 30, 2015 rainfall anomaly (RFE2) in mm from 2005-to-2009 mean

    Source: USGS/FEWS NET

    Figure 4

    Figure 3. eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomaly from 2001-2010 mean, April 21to 30, 2015

    Source: USGS/FEWS NET

    Figure 4. Global Forecast System (GFS) rainfall forecast in mm for May  2  to May 11, 2015

    Figure 5

    Figure 4. Global Forecast System (GFS) rainfall forecast in mm for May 2 to May 11, 2015

    Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA) /Climate Prediction Cente…

    FEWS NET’s Seasonal Monitor reports are produced for Central America and the Caribbean, West Africa, East Africa, Central Asia, and Somalia every 10-to-30 days during the region’s respective rainy season(s). Seasonal Monitors report updates on weather events (e.g., rainfall patterns) and associated impacts on ground conditions (e.g., cropping conditions, pasture and water availability), as well as the short-term rainfall forecast. Find more remote sensing information here.

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