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Dry weather continued in most of the North and the central regions

  • Seasonal Monitor
  • Somalia
  • May 6, 2014
Dry weather continued in most of the North and the central regions

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  • Summary
  • Situation
  • Partner
    USGS

    Summary
    Dry weather continued in most parts of the North and in the central regions of the country from April 21 to 30. However, moderate to light rains fell for two to three days between April 25 and 40 in most parts of the South, including in Bay, Bakool, the Jubas, and some parts of Lower Shabelle, Hiraan, and Gedo. Similarly, some parts of Awdal, Togdheer and Woqooyi Galbeed Regions in the Northwest and localized areas in the cowpea belt in Eldher District in Galgaduud Region received moderate rainfall. These rains have partially replenished water sources and slightly improved pasture conditions. From April 21 to 30, field reports and satellite imagery indicate light to moderate rains between 10 and 50 millimeters (mm) were received in most of Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed Regions in the Northwest and in most of the southern regions. However, there was no rainfall or only very light rains in most of the central and northeastern regions (Figure 1). Specifically, the Northeast, the central regions, and western part of the Northwest remained entirely dry from April 21 to 30 (Figure 2).

    Situation

    In the North, the performance of the Gu rains from April 21 to 30 has been mixed, but many areas have had very little rain (Figure 1). In particular, rainfall has been low or nonexistent and unreliable in pastoral areas in Bari, Nugaal, northern Mudug, Sanaag, Sool, and most of Togdheer Regions in the North. Water shortages were reported, and both human and livestock water consumption currently depend on buying trucked water. However, substantial precipitation did fall in Northwest Agropastoral livelihood zone in Togwajale, Borama, and Baki Districts, in the Hawd and Golis Pastoral livelihood zone in Hargeisa, Borama, and Baki Districts, and some parts of Golis Pastoral livelihood zone in Burao and Sheikh Districts in Togdheer Region. These rains have started land preparation and planting in some areas, and they have improved water and rangeland conditions. This has attracted in-migration of pastoralists and livestock from the neighboring, dry areas.

    In the central regions, the Hawd, Addun, and Coastal Deeh Pastoral livelihood zones as well as most of the cowpea belt in Galgaduud and southern Mudug remained dry. The persistent dry weather caused the germinated cowpeas to wilt. The pasture has been scorched in places, and berkads and shallow wells are completely dry. Water trucking is atypically continuing, resulting in a large, unexpected increase of households’ water expenses. However, pockets of the cowpea belt in Eldher District received moderate rains, which slightly eased issues of water availability and supported both cowpea seed germination and pasture growth.

    In most of the southern regions in the Jubas, Bay, Bakool, and some parts of Hiraan and Gedo Regions, moderate to light rains with near average distribution were reported in both pastoral and agropastoral areas. However, most areas of Lower and Middle Shabelle, some parts of Gedo and Hiraan, and Coastal Deeh livelihood zone in the South and areas further inland experienced another 10 days of dry weather. The rain gauges in Baidoa and Dinsoor in Bay, Xudur in Bakool, and Bulo Burti in Hiraan recorded 34 millimeters (mm), 39 mm, 51 mm, and 57 mm of rainfall, respectively. In rainfed pastoral and agropastoral areas with recent rains, they have supported crop development, enhanced pasture conditions, and mostly replenished communal dams and water catchments.

    As result of continued dry weather in the last ten days (dekad) of April, the satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) depicted significantly below average vegetation conditions compared to the 2001 to 2010 mean in most of the Northeast, eastern part of the Northwest, and the central regions as well as areas that have had below average rainfall in Hiraan, the Shabelles, and coastal areas of the Jubas. Below average vegetation is also found in agropastoral areas of Bay, Bakool, and southern part of Hiraan due to delayed planting. In contrast, vegetation conditions have improved in most of the South, western part of the Northwest, and parts of the cowpea belt in Galgaduud Region in central Somalia (Figure 3). The seven-day weather forecast for May 7 to 14 indicates that most of country is likely to experience moderate to heavy rains of between 25 and 80 mm (Figure 4). Coastal areas of the North and pockets alongside the border with Kenya will likely receive less than 20 mm of rain.

    For more rain gauge data, please, contact So-Hydro@fao.org or visit www.faoswalim.org.

    Figures Figure 1. April 21 to 30, 2014 rainfall (RFE2) in millimeters (mm)

    Figure 1

    Figure 1. April 21 to 30, 2014 rainfall (RFE2) in millimeters (mm)

    Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)/FEWS NET

    Figure 2. April 21-30, 2014 rainfall anomaly in mm (RFE2) from 2001 to 2013 mean

    Figure 2

    Figure 2. April 21-30, 2014 rainfall anomaly in mm (RFE2) from 2001 to 2013 mean

    Source: USGS/FEWS NET

    Figure 3. eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomaly from 2001 to 2013 mean

    Figure 3

    Figure 3. eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomaly from 2001 to 2013 mean

    Source: USGS/FEWS NET

    Figure 4. May 7-14, 2014 Global Forecast System (GFS) rainfall forecast in mm

    Figure 4

    Figure 4. May 7-14, 2014 Global Forecast System (GFS) rainfall forecast in mm

    Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

    FEWS NET’s Seasonal Monitor reports are produced for Central America and the Caribbean, West Africa, East Africa, Central Asia, and Somalia every 10-to-30 days during the region’s respective rainy season(s). Seasonal Monitors report updates on weather events (e.g., rainfall patterns) and associated impacts on ground conditions (e.g., cropping conditions, pasture and water availability), as well as the short-term rainfall forecast. Find more remote sensing information here.

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