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Little to no Gu rainfall leaves most regions dry in early June

  • Seasonal Monitor
  • Somalia
  • June 15, 2018
Little to no Gu rainfall leaves most regions dry in early June

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    Between June 1 and 10, no rainfall was reported throughout most of Somalia. The only exceptions included localized areas in the South and several areas in Northwestern Agropastoral, Hawd Pastoral, East Golis, and Northern Inland Pastoral livelihood zones in the North, which accumulated 1-25 millimeters (mm) of rainfall according to satellite-derived rainfall estimates (RFE2) (Figure 1). In general, little to no precipitation is climatologically average for most of the country in early June; however, rainfall totals were 10-50 mm below the 2004-2009 short-term mean in some areas of Juba and Bay in the South and areas of Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed in the Northwest (Figure 2). No new flooding events were reported during the first ten days of June. 


    In the Northwest, localized light to moderate rainfall was reported in parts of Northwestern Agropastoral and Hawd Pastoral livelihood zones in Woqooyi Galbeed. Parts of Sanaag also received localized light to moderate rainfall, specifically the East Golis livelihood zone in Erigabo and Lasqoray districts and the Northern Inland Pastoral livelihood zone in eastern Badhan district. No rainfall was reported in in Awdal, Togdheer, or Sool. 

    In the Northeast, no rainfall was reported across pastoral livelihood zones of Bari, Nugaal, and northern Mudug. The lack of precipitation at this time, however, is climatologically normal. Most areas within the three regions were similarly dry in the preceding 10 days of May.   

    In the central regions, the preceding 10-day dry spell in late May gave way to light rainfall in large parts of the Dhusamareb and Elder districts in Galgaduud and Harardhere district in Mudug according to field reports. The dry spell continued, however, in Adado and Abudwaq districts of Galgaduud and Galkayo and Hobyo districts in Mudug. Although rangeland conditions are currently favorable, a continued dry spell thoughout June could accelerate the depletion of pasture and water sources.  

    In the South, most areas of Hiiraan, Gedo, and Bakool received little or no rainfall. Light rainfall was reported across much of Bay, except for large parts of Dinsor and Burhakaba districts, which received moderate levels of rainfall. Meanwhile, moderate rainfall was reported in most livelihood zones of the Shabelle regions, with localized areas such as Afgoye and Janaale of Lower Shabelle receiving moderate to heavy rainfall. Moderate to heavy rainfall was also reported in large parts of Lower and Middle Juba. Rain gauge stations recorded 73 mm in Afgoye (Lower Shabelle), 50 mm in Sakow (Middle Juba), 10 mm in Baidoa (Bay), 5.5 mm in Hudur (Bakool), and 0 mm in Beledweyn (Hiiraan). No new flooding events were reported, but vast areas in riverine livelihood zones of Hiiraan, Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle, Lower Juba, Middle Juba, and Gedo remain underwater. 

    The satellite-derived eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) continues to show average to above-average vegetation conditions in many parts of the country, despite a long dry spell between late May and early June (Figure 3). The seven-day rainfall forecast for June 14-20 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association’s Climate Prediction Center (NOAA/CPC) forecast little to no rainfall will be received across most of the country, aside from Northwestern Agropastoral livelihood zone in Woqooyi Galbeed, East Golis livelihood zone in Sanaag and Bari, and a localized area crossing Bay, Shabelle, and Juba regions. These areas are expected to receive 10-70 mm of rainfall (Figure 4). 

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    About this report

    FEWS NET publishes a Seasonal Monitor for Somalia every 10 days (dekad) through the end of the current April to June Gu rainy season. The purpose of this document is to provide updated information on the progress of the Gu season to facilitate contingency and response planning. This Somalia Seasonal Monitor is valid through June 20, 2018 and is produced in collaboration with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU) Somalia, the Somali Water and Land Information System (SWALIM), a number of other agencies, and several Somali nongovernmental organizations(NGOs).


    Figure 1

    Source: NOAA/CPC

    Figure 2

    Source: NOAA/CPC

    Figure 3

    Source: NOAA/CPC

    Figure 4

    Source: NOAA/CPC and USGS/FEWS NET

    FEWS NET’s Seasonal Monitor reports are produced for Central America and the Caribbean, West Africa, East Africa, Central Asia, and Somalia every 10-to-30 days during the region’s respective rainy season(s). Seasonal Monitors report updates on weather events (e.g., rainfall patterns) and associated impacts on ground conditions (e.g., cropping conditions, pasture and water availability), as well as the short-term rainfall forecast. Find more remote sensing information here.

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