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Most parts of Somalia experienced a long dry spell through the end of May

  • Seasonal Monitor
  • Somalia
  • June 4, 2016
Most parts of Somalia experienced a long dry spell through the end of May

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  • Preface
  • Situation
  • About this Report
  • Partner
    USGS

    Preface

    From May 21 to 30, below-average Gu rainfall was received throughout most of the country, and dry conditions persisted. Isolated areas in the Northwest received light rainfall between 10 to 50 millimeters (mm) (Figure 1). Field reports indicated that, contrary to satellite rainfall estimates, localized, light rainfall also fell in parts of Lower Juba, Gedo, and Bay Regions. According to the rainfall estimate (RFE2) for May 21 to 30, rainfall was significantly below the 2001-to-2014 mean in most parts of the country (Figure 2). 


    Situation

    From May 21 to 30, below-average Gu rainfall was received throughout most of the country, and dry conditions persisted. Isolated areas in the Northwest received light rainfall between 10 to 50 millimeters (mm) (Figure 1). Field reports indicated that, contrary to satellite rainfall estimates, localized, light rainfall also fell in parts of Lower Juba, Gedo, and Bay Regions. According to the rainfall estimate (RFE2) for May 21 to 30, rainfall was significantly below the 2001-to-2014 mean in most parts of the country (Figure 2).

    In the Northwest, field reports indicated that most livelihood zones of Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed received localized light showers. However, there was no rainfall in most parts of Togdheer Region, with the exception of West Golis livelihood zone of Sheekh District where localized rainfall was received. In Sanaag Region, localized light to moderate rains were reported in parts of Northern Inland Pastoral and East Golis livelihood zones. However, no rainfall has been reported in the pastoral livelihoods of Sool Region.

    In the Northeast, only Bari Region reported receiving rainfall, which was light and of short duration. These showers fell in pockets of East Golis livelihood zone of Qandala and Bossaso Districts and small pockets of Northern Inland Pastoral livelihood zone. No rainfall was reported during the last ten days of May in Addun, Hawd, northern Mudug, or Northern Inland Pastoral livelihood zones of Nugaal. Due to poor availability of pasture and water in these areas, there is significant livestock migration towards areas of Sanaag, where relatively more rainfall was received.

    In central regions, field reports indicated a lack of precipitation in both Galgaduud and Northern Mudug Regions. Although the livelihood zones in these regions received average rainfall earlier in the season, pasture and water conditions and cowpea crop performance are below average due to prolonged dry spells in May.

    In the South, most regions and livelihood zones received little or no rainfall during the reporting period. No precipitation was reported in Hiiraan, Middle Shabelle, Lower Shabelle, Middle Juba, Gedo, or most parts of Bay and Bakool. However, light precipitation was reported in most livelihood zones of Lower Juba. Rain gauges recorded 5.5 mm in Baidoa, 6.5 mm in Dinsor and 9.5 mm in Qansahdhere. The dry conditions throughout most of May are expected to negatively impact the 2016 Gu crop production. Crop production is expected to be below average in the key producing regions of Lower Shabelle and Bay.

    The satellite-derived eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) indicates healthy vegetation conditions in some parts of the South and northeastern regions. However, due to poor precipitation in most of May, significantly below average conditions have been observed in many parts of the South, including in Lower and Middle Shabelle, Bay, and Lower and Middle Juba, as well as in central and northeastern pastoral areas (Figure 3). The seven-day rainfall forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association’s Climate Prediction Center (NOAA/CPC), for June 2 to 8, indicates continued dry conditions throughout most of Somalia, with localized areas in northern Somalia forecast to receive rainfall (Figure 4). The continued dry spell could lead to severe moisture stress for Gu crops and further deterioration of rangeland conditions in both pastoral and agropastoral areas. 

    For more rain gauge data, please, contact So-Hydro@fao.org or visit www.faoswalim.org.


    About this Report

    FEWS NET will publish a Seasonal Monitor for Somalia every 10 days (dekad) through the end of the current April toJune Gu rainy season. The purpose of this document is to provide updated information on the progress of the Gu season to facilitate contingency and response planning. This Somalia Seasonal Monitor is valid through June 10, 2016 and is produced in collaboration with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU) Somalia, the Somali Water and Land Information System (SWALIM), a number of other agencies, and several Somali non-governmental organizations (NGOs).

    Figures

    Figure 1

    Estimated rainfall (RFE2) in millimeters (mm), May 21 to 30, 2016

    Source: USGS/FEWS NET

    Figure 2

    Rainfall anomaly in millimeters (mm) from 2001-to-2014 mean, May 21 to 30, 2016

    Source: USGS/FEWS NET

    Figure 3

    eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomaly from 2001-to-2010 mean, May 21 to May 30, 2016

    Source: USGS/FEWS NET

    Figure 4

    Global Forecast System (GFS) precipitation forecast in mm for June 2 to June 8, 2016

    Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/Climate Prediction Cente…

    FEWS NET’s Seasonal Monitor reports are produced for Central America and the Caribbean, West Africa, East Africa, Central Asia, and Somalia every 10-to-30 days during the region’s respective rainy season(s). Seasonal Monitors report updates on weather events (e.g., rainfall patterns) and associated impacts on ground conditions (e.g., cropping conditions, pasture and water availability), as well as the short-term rainfall forecast. Find more remote sensing information here.

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