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Below-average to average Gu rainfall observed in most parts of the country

  • Seasonal Monitor
  • Somalia
  • June 24, 2016
Below-average to average Gu rainfall observed in most parts of the country

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  • Preface
  • Situation
  • About this Report
  • Partner


    After a long dry spell from the second half of May through the first 10 days of June, light to moderate rains of 10 to 50 millimeters (mm), with normal spatial and temporal distribution, fell in pastoral and agropastoral livelihood zones of the Northwest, and in parts of the South, including Lower Shabelle and Middle Juba (Figure 1). However, rainfall was still below average; according to the rainfall estimate (RFE2) for June 10 to 20, rainfall was 10 to 25 mm below the short-term mean (STM). In isolated pockets of the Northeast, rainfall was 10 to 25 mm above the STM (Figure 2). 


    In the Northwest, moderate to light rains fell in most livelihood zones of Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, and Togdheer Regions, including West Golis Pastoral, Hawd Pastoral, Northwest Agropastoral, and Togdheer Agropastoral livelihood zones. One day of light to moderate precipitation, with wide spatial distribution, was also reported in many parts of East Golis Pastoral livelihood zone and Northern Inland Pastoral livelihood zone of Sool and Sanaag Regions. Rainfall in these livelihood zones followed a prolonged dry spell and is expected to improve pasture and water conditions. No rainfall was reported in Guban Pastoral livelihood zone, although this region does not normally receive Gu rains.

    In the Northeast, significant rainfall with good intensity and distribution was reported in parts of Bari Region from June 10 to 20. These areas included Coastal Deeh livelihood zone of Iskushuban and the Northern Inland Pastoral livelihood zone of Iskushuban, Bossaso, and Qardho Districts of Bari Region. These rains are expected to slightly relieve current water and pasture deficits. No rainfall was received in the rest of the Northeast, including Coastal Deeh, Addun Pastoral, and Hawd Pastoral livelihood zones of Nugaal and North Mudug.

    In the central regions, no rainfall has been reported between June 10 to 20 in most parts of Galgaduud and South Mudug. However, one day of light precipitation was reported in isolated areas of Addun Pastoral and Cowpea Agropastoral livelihood zones of Harardhere and Elder Districts. Pasture and water conditions in the central regions are generally below-average due to consistently poor Gu rains. 

    In the South, varying levels of precipitation were reported, with some areas receiving moderate rainfall and others remaining dry. Light to moderate rainfall fell in large parts of Lower Shabelle and Middle Juba. These rains are expected to boost standing crops and support replanting in some areas. Light rains were also reported in parts of Lower Juba in Badhaadhe and Afmadow Districts, as well as in areas along the coast of the Gulf of Aden. Rain gauge stations recorded 38 mm of rainfall in Sakow of Middle Juba, 111 mm in Afgoye of Lower Shabelle, 2-6 mm in Baidoa, Dinsor, and Qansahdhere Districts of Bay and 4.5 mm in Hudur of Bakool Region. No floods occurred during the reporting period. Little or no rainfall was reported in Hiiraan, Bay, Bakool or Gedo.

    According to the satellite-derived normalized vegetation index (NDVI), vegetation conditions are average to above-average in large parts of the South and Northwest and in pockets of central Somalia. However, the vegetation conditions are below the STM in most parts of Lower and Middle Shabelle, Lower and Middle Juba, and parts of central and northeastern Somalia (Figure 3). The seven-day rainfall forecast for June 25 to July 1 suggest that most of the South, some central regions, and areas of East Golis livelihood zone along the coast could receive 5-25 mm of rain (Figure 4). The rest of the country is expected to remain dry.      

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    About this Report

    FEWS NET will publish a Seasonal Monitor for Somalia every 10 days (dekad) through the end of the current April to June Gu rainy season. The purpose of this document is to provide updated information on the progress of the Gu season to facilitate contingency and response planning. This Somalia Seasonal Monitor is valid through June 30, 2016 and is produced in collaboration with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU) Somalia, the Somali Water and Land Information System (SWALIM), a number of other agencies, and several Somali non-governmental organizations (NGOs).


    Figure 1

    Rainfall estimate (RFE2) in millimetres (mm), June 10 to 20, 2016

    Source: USGS/FEWS NET

    Figure 2

    Rainfall anomaly in mm from 2001 to 2014 mean, June 10 to 20, 2016

    Source: USGS/FEWS NET

    Figure 3

    eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomaly from 2001 to 2010 mean, June 10 to 20, 2016

    Source: USGS/FEWS NET

    Figure 4

    Global Forecast System (GFS) precipitation forecast in mm for June 25 to July 1, 2016

    Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/Climate Prediction Cente…

    FEWS NET’s Seasonal Monitor reports are produced for Central America and the Caribbean, West Africa, East Africa, Central Asia, and Somalia every 10-to-30 days during the region’s respective rainy season(s). Seasonal Monitors report updates on weather events (e.g., rainfall patterns) and associated impacts on ground conditions (e.g., cropping conditions, pasture and water availability), as well as the short-term rainfall forecast. Find more remote sensing information here.

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