Seasonal Monitor

Gu rainfall and river water levels begin to subside in June

June 15, 2020

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.
Partners: 
USGS

At the beginning of the final month of the Gu 2020 season, little to no rainfall was reported across most of the country during the June 1-10 period. According to CHIRPS preliminary rainfall data, rainfall amounted 5 millimeters (mm) or less in most regions (Figure 1). Only light rainfall amounts of 10-25 mm were recorded in parts of Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed regions in the Northwest, localized areas of Togdheer and Sanaag regions in the Northwest, and localized areas of Bari region in the Northeast. Light rainfall amounts of 10-25 mm were also recorded in the Shabelle and Juba regions and parts of Bay, with localized areas receiving moderate amounts ranging up to 50 mm. Although remote sensing data did not detect it, ground information also suggests that moderate rainfall occurred across most of Sool region in the Northwest. Remote sensing data shows that rainfall was broadly near normal across the country when compared to the long-term average, though slight rainfall deficits or surpluses of up to 10 mm were observed in localized areas (Figure 2). According to FAO SWALIM river station gauge data as of June 3, river water levels in the Juba and Shabelle basins were falling and well below flood risk in most locations. However, the stations at Jowhar and Bulo Burti along the Shabelle river indicate a moderate but falling flood risk.

Situation

At the beginning of the final month of the Gu 2020 season, little to no rainfall was reported across most of the country during the June 1-10 period. According to CHIRPS preliminary rainfall data, rainfall amounted 5 millimeters (mm) or less in most regions (Figure 1). Only light rainfall amounts of 10-25 mm were recorded in parts of Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed regions in the Northwest, localized areas of Togdheer and Sanaag regions in the Northwest, and localized areas of Bari region in the Northeast. Light rainfall amounts of 10-25 mm were also recorded in the Shabelle and Juba regions and parts of Bay, with localized areas receiving moderate amounts ranging up to 50 mm. Although remote sensing data did not detect it, ground information also suggests that moderate rainfall occurred across most of Sool region in the Northwest. Remote sensing data shows that rainfall was broadly near normal across the country when compared to the long-term average, though slight rainfall deficits or surpluses of up to 10 mm were observed in localized areas (Figure 2). According to FAO SWALIM river station gauge data as of June 3, river water levels in the Juba and Shabelle basins were falling and well below flood risk in most locations. However, the stations at Jowhar and Bulo Burti along the Shabelle river indicate a moderate but falling flood risk.

In the Northwest, rainfall ranged from light to none in most pastoral and agropastoral livelihood zones during the June 1-10 period. Light rainfall occurred in localized areas of Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed regions, particularly in Northwestern Agropastoral livelihood zone and West Golis Pastoral livelihood zone. In West Golis, strong winds were also reported. In Togdheer, most livelihood zones experienced a dry spell, but localized areas of West Golis Pastoral zone of Sheikh district received light to moderate rainfall. In Sanaag region, ground information suggests only pockets of Northern Inland Pastoral livelihood zone received light rainfall. Conversely, ground information suggests localized areas in Sool region received moderate rainfall, except in eastern Laasanood district.   

In the Northeast, little to no rainfall was reported across most pastoral livelihood zones of Bari, Nugaal, and northern Mudug regions during the June 1-10 period. However, localized light to moderate rainfall was reported in parts of Northern Inland Pastoral and East Golis Pastoral livelihood zones of Iskushuban, Qardho, Bossaso, Alula and Qandala districts in Bari region.

In central regions, little to no rainfall was reported across all pastoral and agropastoral livelihood zones of Galgaduud and southern Mudug regions during the June 1-10 period. Despite suppressed rainfall over two consecutive reporting periods, pasture and water availability broadly remain normal to above normal. Key informants report that the presence of desert locusts is expanding in various areas, while FAO’s Desert Locust Watch reports hopper bands and groups are present in Hawd Pastoral livelihood zone. Damage to rangeland is thus far reported to be minimal, due to ongoing control operations and the regeneration of vegetation from rainfall earlier in the season.

In the South, little to no rainfall was reported across all agropastoral, pastoral, and riverine livelihood zones of Bakool, Gedo, and Hiiraan regions during the first 10 days of June. This marks the third consecutive 10-day period of dry conditions since May 11. In contrast, light rainfall was reported in most livelihood zones of Bay, Lower and Middle Shabelle, and Lower and Middle Juba regions, while moderate rainfall was observed in coastal areas of Lower and Middle Juba and Lower Shabelle. Most key rain gauge stations in these regions recorded little to no precipitation, but 43 mm were recorded in Jamame (Lower Juba) and 14.8 mm were recorded in Dinsoor (Bay). As a result of suppressed rainfall locally as well in the river catchments in the Ethiopian highlands, the Juba and Shabelle river water levels continued to recede, approaching normal levels at most station gauges. Only Jowhar and Bulo Burti reported a moderate, though falling, flood risk as of June 3.

The satellite-derived eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for the June 1-10 period shows positive anomalies across many areas of the country (Figure 3). However, modest deficits persist in rain-deficit pastoral areas of the Northeast and eastern Sanaag. Although obscured by cloud cover, modest deficits also exist in large parts of the South due to recent floods and the dry spell since mid-May. The NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s seven-day weather forecast through June 20 predicts continued suppression of Gu rainfall across nearly the whole country (Figure 4). The only areas that are likely to receive rainfall are coastal areas of the Shabelle and Juba regions, where moderate rainfall of 10-20 mm is forecast.

About this Report

The seasonal monitor, produced by the FEWS NET USGS regional scientist and FEWS NET Regional Technical Manager, updates rainfall totals, the impact on production, and the short-term forecast. It is produced every 20 days during the production season. Find more remote sensing information here.

 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics