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The cumulative March to June Gu 2014 rains were below normal to near normal

  • Seasonal Monitor
  • Somalia
  • July 3, 2014
The cumulative March to June Gu 2014 rains were below normal to near normal

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  • Summary
  • Situation
  • Partner
    USGS

    Summary
    The Gu 2014 rains started later than normal in May. They ended in early June in most of the North and central regions. The early cessation was followed by strong Hagaa winds, which accelerating the depletion of water sources and the deterioration of pasture conditions. Over the course of the March to June Gu season, rainfall performance was largely below normal to near normal in terms of amount. Duration and spatial coverage were also mixed between less than usual and near usual. However, parts of the Jubas, the Shabelles, Bay, and the Northwest received near average rains (Figure 1). From April 1 to June 30, total rainfall was mostly below the 2001 to 2013 mean in most of the northern, central, and southern regions (Figure 2).

    Situation

    n the Northwest in April, rainfall had been low and unreliable or nonexistent in pastoral areas in Sanaag, Sool, and most of Togdheer. However, substantial precipitation did fall in Northwest Agropastoral livelihood zone in Togwajale, Borama, and Baki Districts, in the Hawd and Golis Pastoral livelihood zones in Hargeisa, Borama, and Baki Districts, and some parts of Golis Pastoral livelihood zone in Burao and Sheikh Districts in Togdheer Region. In May, moderate to heavy rains fell in Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed and in West Golis Pastoral livelihood zone in Togdheer Region. In addition, localized light to moderate rains were received in agropastoral areas of Togdheer, parts of the Hawd, and many areas of the Sool Plateau, Nugal Valley, and East Golis Pastoral livelihood zone in Togdheer, Sool, and Sanaag Regions. However, seasonably typical, dry weather persisted in most of Guban Pastoral livelihood zone in Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed Regions.

    In the Northeast from March to May 10, little to no rain was reported. However, there was moderate rainfall with average distribution in the Hawd and the western part of Addun Pastoral livelihood zone in Nugal and northern Mudug Region. However, between mid-May to early June, moderate to light intensity rains with erratic temporal and spatial distribution were reported in some parts of the Sool Plateau, the Hawd, and localized areas in the Nugal Valley, Addun Pastoral livelihoods zone in Bari, Nugaal, and northern Mudug. In Dharoor Valley Pastoral, East Golis Pastoral, and Coastal Deeh Pastoral livelihood zone in Bari Region, considerably low total rainfall for the season compelled pastoralists to migrate livestock to adjacent areas such as Addun and Sool Plateau Pastoral livelihood zones of the Northeast and to the Sool Plateau in Sanaag Region.

    In the central regions, despite the long dry spell for the whole month of April, field reports confirmed that in May and early June, rain fell in localized area of the Hawd, Addun Pastoral livelihood zone, and some parts of the cowpea-growing areas in Central Agropastoral livelihood zone. In those areas, overall, this season’s rains had near average to well below average totals with poor spatial coverage and frequency. These rains were insufficient to rejuvenate pasture, replenish water sources, and supported both cowpea germination and development at typical levels. In most parts of Coastal Deeh Pastoral livelihood zone in the central regions, Gu rains were largely below normal, resulting in lack of rejuvenation and in some cases further deterioration of pasture conditions and poor water availability.

    In the South, most of Lower Juba, Middle Shabelle, and Bay Regions, and parts of Lower Shabelle, Middle Juba, and Hiraan received fairly well distributed, near average to slightly above average total rain, according to field reports and satellite-based rainfall estimates for April and May 2014. In the rainfed pastoral and agropastoral livelihood zones, the rains improved pasture, browse, and water availability and quality. These rains have also supported the development of the maize, sorghum, cowpea, and sesame crops. However, the long dry spell in April and inadequate total rainfall in June led to poor crop development with some crops wilting and others unlikely to be useable for anything other than fodder in agropastoral areas of Hiraan Region, Bakool, Gedo, and Middle Juba Region. The dry spell and the early cessation of the Gu rains has also limited the typical seasonal increase in rangeland and water resources in these areas. In Coastal Deeh Pastoral livelihood zone in Lower Juba, coastal Hagaa rains in June reversed the deterioration in rangeland vegetation conditions, and they increased pasture and browse availability (Figure 3). Only some coastal areas in the South and agropastoral areas in Awdal Region are likely to receive rain over the next week (Figure 4).

    For more rain gauge data, please, contact So-Hydro@fao.org or visit www.faoswalim.org.

    Figures Figure 1. Estimated rainfall (RFE2) totals in millimeters (mm), April 1 to June 30, 2014

    Figure 1

    Figure 1. Estimated rainfall (RFE2) totals in millimeters (mm), April 1 to June 30, 2014

    Source: USGS/FEWS NET

    Figure 2: April 1 to June 30 2014 rainfall anomaly (RFE2) in mm from  2001 to 2013 mean

    Figure 2

    Figure 2: April 1 to June 30 2014 rainfall anomaly (RFE2) in mm from 2001 to 2013 mean

    Source: USGS/FEWS NET

    Figure 3. eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomaly from 2001 to 2010 mean, June 21 to 30, 2014

    Figure 3

    Figure 3. eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomaly from 2001 to 2010 mean, June 21 to 30, 2014

    Source: USGS/FEWS NET

    Figure 4. Global Forecast System (GFS) rainfall forecast for July 4 to 14, 2014

    Figure 4

    Figure 4. Global Forecast System (GFS) rainfall forecast for July 4 to 14, 2014

    Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

    Seasonal calendar in a typical year

    Figure 1

    Seasonal calendar in a typical year

    Source: FEWS NET

    FEWS NET’s Seasonal Monitor reports are produced for Central America and the Caribbean, West Africa, East Africa, Central Asia, and Somalia every 10-to-30 days during the region’s respective rainy season(s). Seasonal Monitors report updates on weather events (e.g., rainfall patterns) and associated impacts on ground conditions (e.g., cropping conditions, pasture and water availability), as well as the short-term rainfall forecast. Find more remote sensing information here.

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