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October to December Deyr rains varied significantly between northern and southern regions

  • Seasonal Monitor
  • Somalia
  • January 7, 2016
October to December Deyr rains varied significantly between northern and southern regions

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    The Deyr season began in the first week of October, although rains did not become fully established until the second and third weeks of the month. In most parts of southern and central Somalia, from October to early December, rainfall was average to above-average with adequate temporally and spatially distribution. Both satellite-based estimates and ground reports indicated that rains of between 150 to 400 millimeters (mm) fell in southern and central regions from October to November (Figure 1). The rainfall estimate (RFE) anomaly for these regions was 25 to 100 mm above the 2000-to-2010 mean (Figure 2), likely related to the ongoing El Niño. However, the Deyr rains were relatively erratic and well below average in most parts of the North and in coastal areas of Juba and Shabelle Valleys. As a result, pastoral and coastal livelihood zones in the North experienced atypical dry conditions that depleted rangeland resources. The Deyr rains ended between late-November and mid-December in most northern regions. 


    In the Northwest, the Deyr rains were light to moderate with poor to average distribution in both pastoral and agropastoral livelihood zones. In the first week of November, moderate rainfall with adequate spatial distribution was received in Hawd Pastoral and West Golis Pastoral livelihood zones in Hargeisa and Berbera Districts of Woqooyi Galbeed. However, for the remainder of November and December, northwestern regions either received light, unevenly distributed rainfall, or no rainfall. The exception was Guban Pastoral livelihood zone in Lawyaddo and Zeylac Districts of Awdal Region, which received atypical, moderate rains in the first half of November and seasonally moderate to light rains in December. This livelihood zone typically receives Hays rains in December and January.

    In the Northeast, the Deyr rains were below average throughout the season, with erratic temporal and spatial distribution in most parts of Nugaal and Bari Regions. Although Hawd livelihood zone of Nugaal Region received cumulative rainfall amounts of 25 to 100 mm, rains were very poor for the rest of Nugaal and Bari Regions, with a cumulative October to November RFE anomaly of 10 to 50 mm below the long-term mean. The poor rains negatively impacted rangeland conditions for most livelihood zones and the most significant impact was in Northern Inland Pastoral livelihood zone where pasture and water resources are severely exhausted and there is significant livestock out-migration.  

    In the central regions, both satellite-based estimates and ground reports indicated that in most parts of Hawd Pastoral, Addun Pastoral, Cowpea Agropastoral, and Coastal Deeh livelihood zones, Deyr rains started in the first week of October, were evenly distributed, and average to above-average in cumulative amount. The satellite-derived rainfall estimates indicated cumulative rainfall amounts of 150 to 250 mm in most areas, between 25 to 100 mm above the 2000-to-2010 average. Overall, Deyr rainfall regenerated pasture, replenished water sources, and supported cowpea crop development in agropastoral areas.       

    In the South, the Deyr rains started in the first and second weeks of October in Hiiraan, Gedo, Bay, Bakool and Middle Shabelle, while rains started in the second or third weeks of October in Middle Juba, Lower Juba, and Lower Shabelle Regions. Most regions received average to above-average cumulative rainfall with typical spatial and temporal distribution (Figure 2). The Deyr rains supported crop germination and development in most agropastoral livelihood areas and increased pasture, browse, and water availability in most pastoral and agropastoral areas (Figure 3). However, rainfall was erratic and relatively poor in parts of Southern Inland Pastoral livelihood zone in Gedo Region, Bakool Agropastoral livelihood zone in Bakool Region, Southern Rainfed Agropastoral livelihood zone in Barawe and Marka of Lower Shabelle Region, and Coastal Deeh Livelihood zone in Lower Shabelle, Middle Juba, and Lower Juba. The Deyr rains largely subsided between the second and third weeks of December, although light showers were reported in the last week of December in some pockets of Lower Shabelle and Gedo Regions. 

    Short-term forecasts indicate an end of the Deyr season with a less likely scenario of rains returning in January (Figure 4). 

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    About this Report

    FEWS NET publishes a Seasonal Monitor for Somalia every 10 days (dekad) through the current October to December Deyr rainy season. The purpose of this document is to provide updated information on the progress of the Deyr season to facilitate contingency and response planning. This Somalia Seasonal Monitor is the final report for 2015, and it provides a summary of the 2015 Deyr rains. It is produced in collaboration with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU) Somalia, the Somali Water and Land Information System (SWALIM), a number of other agencies, and several Somali non-governmental organizations (NGOs).


    Figure 1


    Source: FEWS NET

    Figure 2

    Estimated rainfall (RFE2) in millimeters (mm), October 1 to November 30, 2015

    Source: USGS/FEWS NET

    Figure 3

    Rainfall anomaly (RFE2) in millimeters (mm) from 2000 to 2010 mean, October 1 to November 30, 2015

    Source: USGS/FEWS NET

    Figure 4

    eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomaly from 2001 to 2010 mean, December 21 to 30, 2015

    Source: USGS/FEWS NET

    Figure 5

    Global Forecast System (GFS) rainfall forecast in millimeters (mm) for January 6 to 12, 2016

    Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/Climate Prediction Cente…

    FEWS NET’s Seasonal Monitor reports are produced for Central America and the Caribbean, West Africa, East Africa, Central Asia, and Somalia every 10-to-30 days during the region’s respective rainy season(s). Seasonal Monitors report updates on weather events (e.g., rainfall patterns) and associated impacts on ground conditions (e.g., cropping conditions, pasture and water availability), as well as the short-term rainfall forecast. Find more remote sensing information here.

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