Seasonal Monitor

Dry conditions prevailed as the Deyr 2015 season draws to an end

December 24, 2015

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.
Partners: 
USGS

Summary

Rains continue to subside with the end of the Deyr 2015 season. No rainfall was observed in most parts of the country between December 11 and 20. However, localized precipitation ranging between 10 and 50 millimeters (mm), was observed in parts of the South, including Adale and Jowhar of Middle Shabelle and all Lower Juba (Figure 1). Light showers also fell in Buale and Sakow Districts of Middle Juba. The rainfall anomaly (RFE2) shows below average rainfall (<10mm) in most areas of the country. However, rainfall was 25-75 mm above the 2000-to-2010 mean in localized areas of Lower Juba, Middle Shabelle and central regions (Figure 2). 

Situation

In the Northwest, most of pastoral, agropastoral and coastal areas remained dry between December 10 and 20. Hays rains, which are expected to precipitate at this time of the year, were not received in most Northwestern coastal areas including Zeylac, Lughaya and Berbera Districts. Consequently, the rangeland conditions in this area are average to below average. 

In the Northeast, no rainfall has been received from December 20 to 30. Dry conditions persist in pastoral areas, negatively affecting rangeland resources and access to water. Northern Inland Pastoral livelihood zone remains the most affected: pasture and water resources further deteriorated and animals have been migrated to other livelihoods zones.  

In the central regions, dry conditions prevailed in all districts and livelihood zones. Despite the dryness, water and pasture availability in these area are at typical levels due to the above average rainfall received in October and November. Livestock body conditions and productivitiy are good, and cowpea production is expected to be above average.

In the southern regions, most areas, including Bay, Bakool, Hiiraan, Lower Shabelle and most of Gedo Region, did not receive rainfall and remain dry. However, typical rainfall amounts with average distribution fell in Adale and Jowhar Districts of Middle Shabelle, pockets of Luuq and Baardheere Districts of Gedo Region, and most parts of Lower Juba. Localized showers were also reported in pastoral and agropastoral livelihood zones in Buale and Sakow Districts of Middle Juba Region. No flooding has been reported from December 10 to 20, and the water levels of the Shabelle and Juba rivers subsided considerably. Crop production is expected to be average to above average, and pasture and water availability are average to above average across the regions.  

The satellite-derived eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomaly indicates that vegetation levels for most parts of the southern and central regions were above the 2001-to-2010 short-term mean (STM), but  below the STM in localzed areas of Awdal, Shabelle and Juba valleys and Gedo region (Figure 3). However, the vegetation conditions in Northern Inland Pastoral livelihood zone of Bari, Nugaal, Sool and Sanaag regions were observed at below average levels, contrary to the average levels depicted by the current eMODIS NDVI. Although Deyr rainfall typically end at this time of year, the seven-day rainfall forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association’s Climate Prediction Center (NOAA/CPC) indicates that rainfall totals ranging between 10 and 30 mm will be received in some southern and central regions from December 20 to 30. The forecast also suggests that average Heys rains will likely precipitate during December and January in the Guban Pastoral livelihood zone of Zeylac and Lugahaya Districts of Awdal Region. The rest of the country will likely remain dry over the forecast period (Figure 4).

For more rain gauge data, please, contact so-hydro@faoswalim.org or visit www.faoswalim.org.

About This Report

FEWS NET will publish a Seasonal Monitor for Somalia every 10 days (dekad) through the end of the current October to December Deyr rainy season. The purpose of this document is to provide updated information on the progress of the Deyr season to facilitate contingency and response planning. This Somalia Seasonal Monitor is valid through December 30, 2015 and is produced in collaboration with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU) Somaliathe Somali Water and Land Information System (SWALIM), a number of other agencies, and several Somali non-governmental organizations (NGOs).

About this Report

The seasonal monitor, produced by the FEWS NET USGS regional scientist and FEWS NET Regional Technical Manager, updates rainfall totals, the impact on production, and the short-term forecast. It is produced every 20 days during the production season. Find more remote sensing information here.

 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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