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Moderate to heavy rainfall in South-Central and climatologically dry conditions in the North

  • Seasonal Monitor
  • Somalia
  • December 13, 2018
Moderate to heavy rainfall in South-Central and climatologically dry conditions in the North

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  • Preface
  • Situation
  • About this Report
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    Most southern regions received light to moderate rainfall between December 1 and 10 according to remote sensing imagery, and rainfall was average to above-average in localized areas of Bay, Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle, Lower Juba, and Middle Juba regions. According to satellite-derived rainfall estimates (RFE2), most of the South received 10 to 50 millimeters (mm) of rainfall, though rainfall was minimal in large parts of Bakool, Gedo, and Hiiraan regions (Figure 1). Most northern and central regions of the country received little to no rainfall. The exception to this is coastal and cowpea growing areas, which reported receiving moderate rainfall that was not reflected in remote sensing products. Compared to the short-term average, precipitation was climatologically average for most parts of Somalia, though rainfall received in some southern areas was slightly above average (Figure 2).  


    In the Northwest, both ground reports and satellite-derived imagery suggest all livelihood zones in Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Sool, and Sanaag regions received little to no rainfall during the December 1-10 reporting period. This reflects climatology for these regions during this time. However, Xeys rainfall, which is typically received during this time in Guban Pastoral livelihood zone of Awdal, was not received during the reporting period.

    In the Northeast, there were little to no rainfall in most livelihood zones of Bari, Nugaal, and southern Mudug regions during the reporting period. This was confirmed by RFE2 satellite imagery and is typical for this time of year. Most livelihood zones in these regions experienced extremely below-average October and November rainfall and rangeland resources and livestock conditions are poor.  

    In central regions, rainfall performance during the December 1-10 period varied across districts of Galgaduud and southern Mudug regions. Little to no rainfall was received in most of Addun and Hawd livelihood zones according to the remote sensing products and field information. Field information suggested that moderate rainfall was received in Coastal Deeh Pastoral and Fishing livelihood zone of Harardhere, Elder, and Hobyo districts, though, as well as in most areas of Central (cowpea) Agropastoral livelihood zone.

    In the South, rainfall performance varied. Most livelihood zones in Bakool, Gedo, and Hiiraan received little to no rainfall. The situation was relatively better in most agropastoral livelihood zones of Bay and agropastoral and riverine livelihood zones of Middle and Lower Shabelle, where localized light to moderate rainfall was reported. Average to above-average rainfall was received across all livelihood zones of Lower and Middle Juba during the reporting period. Rain gauge stations recorded 140.6 mm in Dinsor (Bay), 74.7 mm in Qansahdhere (Bay), 0.5 mm in Hudur (Bakool), 0 mm in Buloburte (Hiiraan), 0 mm in Halgan (Hiiraan), and 70 mm in Sakow (Middle Juba). Shabelle and Juba river water levels remain at normal levels and there is no flooding risk.

    The satellite-derived eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) indicates further improvement from the previous 10-day reporting period, although localized below-average vegetation conditions persist (Figure 3). According to the Climate Prediction Center’s seven-day rainfall forecast through December 20, most parts of the county should expect little to no rainfall, which is consistent with climatology in mid-December (Figure 4). The exception to this is the southernmost pastoral areas of Lower Juba, where 20-50 mm of rainfall is forecast through December 20.

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    About this Report

    FEWS NET publishes a Seasonal Monitor for Somalia every 10 days (dekad) through the end of the current October to December Deyr rainy season. The purpose of this document is to provide updated information on the progress of the Deyr season to facilitate contingency and response planning. This Somalia Seasonal Monitor is valid through December 20, 2018 and is produced in collaboration with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU) Somalia, the Somali Water and Land Information System (SWALIM), a number of other agencies, and several Somali non-governmental organizations (NGOs).


    Figure 1

    Figure 1. Estimated rainfall (RFE2) in mm, December 1-10, 2018

    Source: NOAA CPC

    Figure 2

    Figure 2. Rainfall anomaly (RFE2) in mm compared to 2005-2009 mean, December 1-10, 2018

    Source: NOAA CPC

    Figure 3

    Figure 3. eModis Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomaly compared to 2003-2017 median, December 1-10, 2018

    Source: USGS/FEWS NET

    Figure 4

    Figure 4. Global Forecast System (GFS) rainfall forecast in mm, December 14-20, 2018

    Source: NOAA CPC

    FEWS NET’s Seasonal Monitor reports are produced for Central America and the Caribbean, West Africa, East Africa, Central Asia, and Somalia every 10-to-30 days during the region’s respective rainy season(s). Seasonal Monitors report updates on weather events (e.g., rainfall patterns) and associated impacts on ground conditions (e.g., cropping conditions, pasture and water availability), as well as the short-term rainfall forecast. Find more remote sensing information here.

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