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Dry conditions prevailed in most parts of Somalia

  • Seasonal Monitor
  • Somalia
  • December 14, 2015
Dry conditions prevailed in most parts of Somalia

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  • Summary
  • Situation
  • About this Report
  • Partner
    USGS

    Summary

    Rains continued to subside in most southern, northern, and central regions from December 1 to 10 (Figure 1). Lower and Middle Juba, however, received average rainfall amounts of 10 to 50 millimeters (mm), with typical spatial coverage. Localized showers were also received in parts of Gedo, Bay, and Nugaal Regions. The rainfall anomaly (RFE2) for December 1 to 10 was average in most northern and central regions, but below average (up to 25 mm) in parts of the South. Rainfall was 10 to 50 mm above the 2000-to-2010 mean in localized areas of Lower Juba Region (Figure 2). 


    Situation

    Rains continued to subside in most southern, northern, and central regions from December 1 to 10 (Figure 1). Lower and Middle Juba, however, received average rainfall amounts of 10 to 50 millimeters (mm), with typical spatial coverage. Localized showers were also received in parts of Gedo, Bay, and Nugaal Regions. The rainfall anomaly (RFE2) for December 1 to 10 was average in most northern and central regions, but below average (up to 25 mm) in parts of the South. Rainfall was 10 to 50 mm above the 2000-to-2010 mean in localized areas of Lower Juba Region (Figure 2).

    In the Northwest, Guban Pastoral livelihood zone in Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed received localized, light to moderate rains between December 1 and 10. Togdheer, Sanaag, and Sool Regions remained dry. Below-average seasonal rainfall in Northern Inland Pastoral livelihood zone has resulted in poor pasture and water conditions and atypically high livestock migration.

    In the Northeast, rains have subsided between December 1 and 10. Due to poor rainfall throughout the season in most parts of Bari, Nugaal, and North Mudug, rangeland conditions have further deteriorated and water and pasture access are well below average, negatively impacting livestock body conditions and production. The Northern Inland Pastoral livelihood zone in Bari, Nugaal, and Sanaag Regions has been the most affected.

    In the central regions, no rainfall has been reported in any rural livelihood zones. However, due to average and above-average rains in October and November, pasture and water conditions remain good across the livelihood zones of the central regions.

    In the South, rainfall performance varied across regions from December 1 to 10. Dry conditions have been reported in Hiiraan, Middle Shabelle, Bakool and most parts of Lower Shabelle. Light showers fell in most parts of Gedo and Bay Regions. Middle and Lower Juba Regions received the highest amounts of rainfall, with moderate distribution in most areas. However, the remaining areas of the South, including Lower Shabelle, Bakool, and Hiiraan Regions, received little or no rainfall. Due to substantial amounts of rainfall received in October and November, standing crops continue to develop well and rangeland resources are ample and accessible.

    The satellite-derived eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomaly indicates that vegetation levels are average throughout most of the country and above the 2001-to-2010 mean in most southern and central regions. However, vegetation remains below the 2001-to-2010 mean in Awdal, Bari, and Sanaag Regions in the North, and localized areas in Lower Shabelle, Lower and Middle Juba, and Gedo Regions in the South. The seven-day rainfall forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association’s Climate Prediction Center (NOAA/CPC) indicates likely rainfall amounts of 20-30 mm from December 14 to 20 in most southern and central regions and along the Indian Ocean coast. Most of the northern regions are likely to remain dry during the forecast period (Figure 4).

    For more rain gauge data, please, contact so-hydro@faoswalim.org or visit www.faoswalim.org.


    About this Report

    FEWS NET will publish a Seasonal Monitor for Somalia every 10 days (dekad) through the end of the current October to December Deyr rainy season. The purpose of this document is to provide updated information on the progress of the Deyr season to facilitate contingency and response planning. This Somalia Seasonal Monitor is valid through December 20, 2015 and is produced in collaboration with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU) Somalia, the Somali Water and Land Information System (SWALIM), a number of other agencies, and several Somali non-governmental organizations (NGOs).

    Figures

    Figure 1

    SEASONAL CALENDAR IN A TYPICAL YEAR

    Source: FEWS NET

    Figure 2

    FIGURE 1. ESTIMATED RAINFALL (RFE2) IN MILLIMETERS (MM), DECEMBER 1 TO 10, 2015

    Source: USGS/FEWS NET

    Figure 3

    FIGURE 2. RAINFALL ANOMALY (RFE2) IN MM FROM 2000-2010 MEAN, DECEMBER 1 - 10, 2015

    Source: USGS/FEWS NET

    Figure 4

    FIGURE 3. EMODIS NORMALIZED DIFFERENCE VEGETATION INDEX (NDVI) ANOMALY FROM 2001-2010 MEAN, DECEMBER 1 TO 10, 2015

    Source: USGS/FEWS NET

    Figure 5

    FIGURE 4. GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM (GFS) RAINFALL FORECAST IN MM FOR DECEMBER 14 TO 20, 2015

    Source: Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/Climate Predicti…

    FEWS NET’s Seasonal Monitor reports are produced for Central America and the Caribbean, West Africa, East Africa, Central Asia, and Somalia every 10-to-30 days during the region’s respective rainy season(s). Seasonal Monitors report updates on weather events (e.g., rainfall patterns) and associated impacts on ground conditions (e.g., cropping conditions, pasture and water availability), as well as the short-term rainfall forecast. Find more remote sensing information here.

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