Seasonal Monitor

Rains subsided in most parts of the country

December 3, 2015

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.
Partners: 
USGS

Summary

Rains subsided in most northern and central regions, as well as in Bakool and Hiiraan in the South, from November 21 to 30. However, in parts of pastoral livelihood zones in Woqooyi Galbeed, Sanaag, and Sool Regions one to 10 millimeters (mm) of rainfall was received. Moderate rains continued in most regions of the South, which received rainfall ranging from 10 to 50 mm with typical spatial coverage (Figure 1). The rainfall estimate (RFE2) for November 21 to 30 estimates that rainfall was 10 to 25 mm below the 2000-to-2010 mean in most parts of the country. However, in some parts of the South, rainfall was 10 to 50 mm above the mean (Figure 2), likely related to the ongoing El Niño.

Situation

In the Northwest, rains subsided and dry conditions prevailed in most parts of the Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, and Togdheer Regions. However, the drought-affected Guban Pastoral livelihood zone in Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed Regions received two days of light to moderate rainfall. Light showers fell in localized areas of East Golis, Guban, and Northern Inland Pastoral livelihood zones in Sanaag Region and West Golis Pastoral livelihood zone in Woqooyi Galbeed Region. 

In the Northeast, rains subsided in Nugaal Region and the northern part of Mudug. Localized, moderate rainfall was reported in Bari Region, particularly in parts of East Golis in Alula and Bossaso Districts and areas along the coast. The remaining parts of Bari Region received little or no rainfall. Overall, pasture and water conditions are poor to typical in Bari Region and typical in Nugaal and northern Mudug Regions.

In the central regions, above-average rains with typical spatial distribution fell in pastoral areas of Oswein village in Elbur District. Light showers were also reported in pockets of Addun and Hawd Pastoral livelihood zones in Galgaduud Region. Due to average and above-average rains in the past, pasture and water conditions remain good across central regions.

In the South, rainfall performance varied from November 21 to 30. Above-average rains with typical distribution were reported in all livelihood zones of Middle Shabelle. Moderate rains with typical spatial and temporal distribution also fell in most livelihood zones in Middle and Lower Juba and in pockets of Gedo Region. Localized, moderate rainfall was received in all districts of Bay Region. Rain gauge readings from Jowhar District reported 44 mm of rainfall in three days. Qansadhere, Baidoa/Berdale, and Dinsor Districts in Bay Region had 4.15 mm, 24 mm, and 7.5 mm of rainfall, respectively. However, the remaining areas of the South, including Lower Shabeelle, Bakool, and Hiiraan Regions, received little or no rainfall. Overall, the 2015 Deyr rains have positively impacted standing crops and rangeland conditions in the South: crops are developing well and pasture and water are widely available.

The satellite-derived eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomaly indicates that vegetation levels have increased during the above-average rainy season, likely in part due to El Niño, in many parts of the country. However, vegetation remains below the 2001-to-2010 mean in rain-deficit areas of Awdal Region in the North, some parts of Shabelle and Juba valleys, and Gedo Region (Figure 3). The seven-day rainfall forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association’s Climate Prediction Center (NOAA/CPC) indicates dry conditions in most parts of the country from December 2 to 8. However, most parts of Juba and Shabelle Regions, Coastal Deeh livelihood zone, and coastal areas in Awdal Region are likely to receive moderate rains ranging from 10 to 30 mm (Figure 4).

For more rain gauge data, please contact so-hydro@fao.org or visit www.faoswalim.org.

About This Report

FEWS NET will publish a Seasonal Monitor for Somalia every 10 days (dekad) through the end of the current October to December Deyrrainy season. The purpose of this document is to provide updated information on the progress of the Deyr season to facilitate contingency and response planning. This Somalia Seasonal Monitor is valid through December 10, 2015 and is produced in collaboration with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU) Somalia, the Somali Water and Land Information System (SWALIM), a number of other agencies, and several Somali non-governmental organizations (NGOs).

About this Report

The seasonal monitor, produced by the FEWS NET USGS regional scientist and FEWS NET Regional Technical Manager, updates rainfall totals, the impact on production, and the short-term forecast. It is produced every 20 days during the production season. Find more remote sensing information here.

 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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