The cumulative October to December Deyr 2014 rains were average to below average

Later than normal Deyr 2014 rains started in late October in most of the agricultural and agropastoral areas of the South. However, rains started on time in most parts of the North and in the central regions. Then, they had typical distribution and intensity but highly uneven temporal distribution in November. Over the course of the October to December Deyr season, rainfall amounts were largely average to below average and spatial coverage was mostly typical in most parts of the country. However, in most of Middle Juba, parts of Gedo, some parts of Lower Juba, Lower Shabelle, Hiraan, and the central regions, cumulative rainfall was below average (Figure 1). The Deyr rains ended up to three weeks early in early December. They were followed by cool, dry winds that accelerated the depletion of water sources and the deterioration of pasture. From October 1 to November 30, by which point the rains were largely over, cumulative rainfall in most areas was mostly 10 to 50 millimeters (mm) above the 2001 to 2013 mean (Figure 2).

In the Northwest in October, substantial amounts of rain fell in Togdheer Agropastoral livelihood zone in Togdheer Hawd and Nugal Valley Pastoral livelihood zones, and parts of West Golis Pastoral livelihood zone in Sanaag, Sool, Togdheer, and Woqooyi Galbeed Region. However, rains stopped between the end of October and early November, and then were followed by only ten days of moderate to light, localized rains. During the last ten days of November and all of December, rainfall had been low or nonexistent and highly uneven in all pastoral and agropastoral areas. However, unusually early, moderate amounts of rains fell across Guban Pastoral livelihood zone since October, which generally improved pasture conditions and increased water availability.

In the Northeast, between mid-October and early November, rains with moderate intensity, moderately even spatial distribution, and erratic temporal distribution were reported from most parts of Addun, Nugal Valley, Sool Plateau, and Hawd Pastoral livelihood zones in Bari, Nugal, and northern Mudug Regions. However, from late November until December 20, little to no rain fell, except in Coastal Deeh Pastoral livelihood zone and some localized areas of Addun Pastoral livelihood zone in Banderbeyla and Jariban Districts, though this was only moderate amounts of rains with erratic distribution. However, in Kakaar-Dharoor Pastoral and East Golis Pastoral livelihood zones in Bari Region, cumulative rainfall for the season was significantly below average, which compelled pastoralists to migrate their livestock to the Sool Plateau in Bari Region.

In the central regions, most of the cowpea belt, the Hawd, and parts of Addun Pastoral livelihood zone received fairly evenly distributed near average cumulative October to early November rainfall according to both field reports and satellite-based rainfall estimates. However, the rains started late in November and only had moderate intensity and moderately even spatial distribution in Coastal Deeh Pastoral livelihood zone and neighboring areas of Addun Pastoral livelihood zone that are closer to the coast. Despite, the early cessation of Deyr rains in mid-November, the rains that did fall were sufficient to rejuvenate pasture, replenish water sources, and support both germination and development of cowpeas in agropastoral areas.

In the South, the Deyr rains started on time but were fairly weak in October. However, after that, most areas of Bay and Bakool, and some parts of Hiraan, Middle Shabelle, Lower Shabelle, and Gedo Regions, and localized areas in Lower Juba received average to above average cumulative October to December rainfall that was fairly evenly distributed according to both field reports and satellite-based rainfall estimates. In the rainfed pastoral and agropastoral areas, the rains increased pasture, browse, and water availability. These rains facilitated mostly normal timing of the development of maize, sorghum, cowpea, and sesame crops in most rainfed areas. However, in Middle Juba Region, parts of Gedo, Lower Juba, Lower Shabelle, and riverine and agropastoral areas of Hiraan Region, there was a long dry spell in October, and total rainfall in November was below average. Thus, crop development in these areas was poorer. Some crops wilted, and other crops are unlikely to reach maturity. They may only be consumed as livestock fodder. The recent dry spell since the end of November, and the early cessation of the Deyr rains have already reduced the availability of rangeland and water resources in these areas (Figure 3).

Short-term forecasts do not indicate that the Deyr rains will return (Figure 4). The most likely situation is that the rains have ceased for the year.

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