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The October to December Deyr 2013 rains were largely normal

  • Seasonal Monitor
  • Somalia
  • December 23, 2013
The October to December Deyr 2013 rains were largely normal

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  • Preface
  • Summary
  • Situation
  • Partner
    USGS

    Preface
    FEWS NET will publish a Rain Watch for Somalia every 10 days (dekad) through the end of the current October to December Deyr rainy season. The purpose of this document is to provide updated information on the progress of the Deyr season to facilitate contingency and response planning. This Somalia Rain Watch is v is produced in collaboration with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU) Somalia, the Somali Water and Land Information System (SWALIM), a number of other agencies, and several Somali non-governmental organizations (NGOs).

    Summary

    Deyr 2013 rains started in early October with mixed performance in terms of the amount, coverage, and temporal and spatial distribution across the country. The rains were normal to above normal in the North and parts of central and southern Somalia. However, in the Jubas and some parts of Gedo, Lower Shabelle, and Hiraan regions, total rainfall was below normal (Figure 1). Tropical Cyclone Three led to flash floods in the eastern part of Bari and Nugal Regions in northeastern Somalia from November 10 to 12. The most severe impacts were in parts of Qardho, Banderbeyla, Eyl, and Garowe Districts. From October 1 to December 20, total rainfall was mostly near or above the 1920 to 1980 long-term mean (LTM) s in most of the northern, central, and southern regions (Figure 2). The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for the first 10 days of December depicts good vegetation conditions in most parts of Somalia, but there were some areas of below average conditions in areas that had below average total rainfall in the Jubas, Lower Shabelle, and Gedo.


    Situation

    In the northern regions, Deyr rains started at a normal time in October with near average intensity and coverage. As the season advanced, the rains increased to moderate to above average amounts. They were mostly consistent and widely distributed. However, in Sanaag Region, the rains were only light to moderate in intensity with a mostly average distribution over space and time, but they ceased earlier than normal by the end of November instead of extending into December. Atypical, moderate rains fell across the Golis Mountains and Guban Pastoral livelihood zone, which generally improved pasture and water conditions. The December to February Xays rains started on time in early December in Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed Regions in the Northwest. In November, Tropical Cyclone Three hit Eyl, Banderbeyla, Qardho, and Iskshuban, which inflicted losses of both human lives and assets. Generally in the northern regions, heavy rains from November 1 to 20 considerably improved rangeland conditions and replenished water sources. Livestock migration options remain mostly normal for pastoralists in the northeastern regions as a result of these rangeland and water conditions.

    In central regions, most areas received normal to above normal total Deyr rain, except the Hawd and parts and Addun Pastoral livelihood zones in Dhusamareb District in Galgaduud Region where the total rain was below normal. Most of Coastal Deeh Pastoral, the cowpea belt, and the eastern part of Addun Pastoral livelihood zones received normal to above normal total rain. The rains supported cowpea crop growth and pasture regeneration, and they fully replenished water sources. Similarly, in Hiraan, most areas received moderate rains, but in agropastoral areas in Beletweyne District, the rains were below average leading to poor crop performance.

    In the South between October and December, rainfall was between 50 to 80 percent of the long-term mean (LTM) in most parts of Gedo, Lower Juba, and Middle Juba, and in large areas in Lower Shabelle and Bay Regions. However, in most parts of Middle Shabelle, some areas in Bay, Bakool, Lower Shabelle, and Gedo Regions, rains were 130 to above 150 percent of the LTM (Figure 2). During the Deyr season, the river catchments in Ethiopia and Somalia had more rain and rain later in the year than normal. This led to flooding on arable land in the Juba and Shabelle Valleys. Floods damaged standing crops in riverine livelihood zones in Middle Shabelle and Middle and Lower Juba Regions. Flood waters even reached some high-potential cropping areas in Kurtunwarey and Afgoye Districts in Lower Shabelle Region.

    The satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomaly indicates normal to above normal vegetation in most parts of the country. However, the satellite image depicts slight deterioration of biomass in Sool Region in the North, which is due to a dry spell in November. Below normal vegetation conditions are also evident in parts of Juba and Lower Shabelle Regions and pocket areas in Gedo, which could be attributed to below average rainfall this season (Figure 3).

    For more rain gauge data, please, contact So-Hydro@fao.org or visit http://www.faoswalim.org.

    Figures Figure 1. Rainfall totals (RFE2), October 1 to December 20, 2013 in millimeters (mm)

    Figure 1

    Figure 1. Rainfall totals (RFE2), October 1 to December 20, 2013 in millimeters (mm)

    Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/Climate Prediction Cente…

    Figure 2: October 1 to December 20, 2013 rainfall as percent change from the 1920 to 1980 long-term mean (LTM)

    Figure 2

    Figure 2: October 1 to December 20, 2013 rainfall as percent change from the 1920 to 1980 long-term mean (LTM)

    Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/Climate Prediction Cente…

    Figure 3. eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomaly from 2001 to 2010 mean, December 1 to 10, 2013

    Figure 3

    Figure 3. eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomaly from 2001 to 2010 mean, December 1 to 10, 2013

    Source: USGS/FEWS NET

    Figure 4. Global Forecast System (GFS) precipitation forecast in mm, December 24 to 30, 2013

    Figure 4

    Figure 4. Global Forecast System (GFS) precipitation forecast in mm, December 24 to 30, 2013

    Source: NOAA/CPC

    FEWS NET’s Seasonal Monitor reports are produced for Central America and the Caribbean, West Africa, East Africa, Central Asia, and Somalia every 10-to-30 days during the region’s respective rainy season(s). Seasonal Monitors report updates on weather events (e.g., rainfall patterns) and associated impacts on ground conditions (e.g., cropping conditions, pasture and water availability), as well as the short-term rainfall forecast. Find more remote sensing information here.

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