Skip to main content

Deyr rains subsided in most parts of the country

  • Seasonal Monitor
  • Somalia
  • December 3, 2013
Deyr rains subsided in most parts of the country

Download the Report

  • Preface
  • Summary
  • Situation
  • Partner
    USGS

    Preface
    FEWS NET will publish a Rain Watch for Somalia every 10 days (dekad) through the end of the current October to December Deyr rainy season. The purpose of this document is to provide updated information on the progress of the Deyr season to facilitate contingency and response planning. This Somalia Rain Watch is v is produced in collaboration with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU) Somalia, the Somali Water and Land Information System (SWALIM), a number of other agencies, and several Somali non-governmental organizations (NGOs).

    Summary

    From November 21 to 30, both field reports and satellite-based rainfall estimates confirmed that rains have already subsided in most parts of the country (Figure1). However, agricultural areas of Jowhar and Balad Districts in Middle Shabelle, areas of Lower Shabelle between the Shabelle River and Bay Region, and localized areas of Bay and Bakool Regions received light to moderate rains with poor distribution over both time and space. In addition, West Golis and Guban Pastoral livelihood zones in the Northwest received fairly distributed, moderate rains. Overall, comparing the rainfall estimate for November 21to 30 was below the 1983 to 2011 long-term mean (LTM) across the country (Figure 2).


    Situation
    In the northern regions, most areas remained dry with the exception of West Golis and Guban Pastoral livelihood zones in Woqooyi Galbeed, Awdal, and Togdher Regions, which received unusual, moderate rainfall with average distribution. Those rains improved pasture conditions and water availability conditions and increased livestock migration options. Ground reports indicate that dry weather persisted in the pastoral areas of the Hawd, the Sool Plateau, the Nugal Valley, East Golis, the Dharor Valley, and Coastal Deeh Pastoral livelihood zone in the Northeast. In contrast, light precipitation was reported in localized areas of East Golis in Erigabo District in Sanag Region. However, heavy rains during the first half of November had considerably improved rangeland conditions and replenished water sources, so migration options remain mostly normal for pastoralists in the northern regions. 
     
    The central regions remained dry with strong winds intermittently blowing. Ground reports indicate that dry weather persisted in all livelihood zones in the central regions, but pockets of the cowpea belt received moderate rainfall, but it had irregular temporal distribution. The driest area was the Hawd Pastoral livelihood zone where the Deyr rainfall totals since the start of the season in October have been low and well below average. This dry winds are likely to accelerate water depletion and cause moisture stress in both pasture and standing cowpeas, which are at the flowering stage and require additional soil moisture to fully mature. Similarly, in Hiraan, dry weather persisted. This dryness had further worsened the conditions for rainfed sorghum in agropastoral areas in Beletweyne District. This sorghum may wilt if rains are received between now and the end of December. 
     
    In the South, most of Bay, Bakool, Gedo, and Middle and Lower Juba Regions received only limited, light showers or remained dry. However, moderate amounts of rain fell in Jowhar and Balad Districts in Middle Shabelle, parts of Lower Shabelle, and localized areas in Bay and Bakool Regions. Rain gauges in Baidoa, Qansaxdhere, and Bardale recorded four millimeters (mm), six mm, and 15 mm of rain, respectively. In most of the South, development of sorghum, maize, and cowpea crops has been seasonally normal thus far. However, continued rain remains crucial for crop development. Reports indicate river floods continued along the Juba, in Middle Shabelle, and in parts of high potential areas in Lower Shabelle, including in Wanleweyne, Afgoye, and Kurtnwarey Districts, preventing some agricultural activities such as replanting. 
     
    Vegetation conditions, as measured by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), indicate significant increases in most of the country. However, pastoral areas in the Jubas and southern Gedo show large decreases in vegetation conditions, probably due to relatively drier conditions over the past month (Figure 3). The precipitation forecast for December 4 to 10, indicates moderate rains of between 10 and 40 mm are likely to resume in parts of Lower and Middle Juba, Gedo, Bay, and Lower Shabelle Regions. Northern and central regions, Hiraan, and Bakool are likely to continue to have dry conditions (Figure 4).
     
    For more rain gauge data, please, contact So-Hydro@fao.org  or visit http://www.faoswalim.org.
    Figures Figure 1. Estimated rainfall totals, November 21 to 30, 2013 (RFE2) in millimeters (mm)

    Figure 1

    Figure 1. Estimated rainfall totals, November 21 to 30, 2013 (RFE2) in millimeters (mm)

    Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/Climate Prediction Cent…

    Figure 2: November 21 to 30 rainfall anomaly in mm from 1920 to 1980 long-term mean (LTM)

    Figure 2

    Figure 2: November 21 to 30 rainfall anomaly in mm from 1920 to 1980 long-term mean (LTM)

    Source: NOAA/CPC and USGS/FEWS NET

    Figure 3. eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomaly from 2001 to 2010 mean, November 20 to 30, 2013

    Figure 3

    Figure 3. eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomaly from 2001 to 2010 mean, November 20 to 30, 2013

    Source: NOAA/CPC and USGS/FEWS NET

    Figure 4. Global Forecast System (GFS) precipitation forecast in mm, December 4 to 10, 2013

    Figure 4

    Figure 4. Global Forecast System (GFS) precipitation forecast in mm, December 4 to 10, 2013

    Source: NOAA/CPC and USGS/FEWS NET

    FEWS NET’s Seasonal Monitor reports are produced for Central America and the Caribbean, West Africa, East Africa, Central Asia, and Somalia every 10-to-30 days during the region’s respective rainy season(s). Seasonal Monitors report updates on weather events (e.g., rainfall patterns) and associated impacts on ground conditions (e.g., cropping conditions, pasture and water availability), as well as the short-term rainfall forecast. Find more remote sensing information here.

    Get the latest food security updates in your inbox Sign up for emails

    The information provided on this Website is not official U.S. Government information and does not represent the views or positions of the U.S. Agency for International Development or the U.S. Government.

    Jump back to top