Seasonal Monitor

Dry conditions prevailed in most parts of Somalia

December 14, 2015

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.
Partners: 
USGS

Summary

Rains continued to subside in most southern, northern, and central regions from December 1 to 10 (Figure 1). Lower and Middle Juba, however, received average rainfall amounts of 10 to 50 millimeters (mm), with typical spatial coverage. Localized showers were also received in parts of Gedo, Bay, and Nugaal Regions. The rainfall anomaly (RFE2) for December 1 to 10 was average in most northern and central regions, but below average (up to 25 mm) in parts of the South. Rainfall was 10 to 50 mm above the 2000-to-2010 mean in localized areas of Lower Juba Region (Figure 2). 

Situation

Rains continued to subside in most southern, northern, and central regions from December 1 to 10 (Figure 1). Lower and Middle Juba, however, received average rainfall amounts of 10 to 50 millimeters (mm), with typical spatial coverage. Localized showers were also received in parts of Gedo, Bay, and Nugaal Regions. The rainfall anomaly (RFE2) for December 1 to 10 was average in most northern and central regions, but below average (up to 25 mm) in parts of the South. Rainfall was 10 to 50 mm above the 2000-to-2010 mean in localized areas of Lower Juba Region (Figure 2).

In the Northwest, Guban Pastoral livelihood zone in Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed received localized, light to moderate rains between December 1 and 10. Togdheer, Sanaag, and Sool Regions remained dry. Below-average seasonal rainfall in Northern Inland Pastoral livelihood zone has resulted in poor pasture and water conditions and atypically high livestock migration.

In the Northeast, rains have subsided between December 1 and 10. Due to poor rainfall throughout the season in most parts of Bari, Nugaal, and North Mudug, rangeland conditions have further deteriorated and water and pasture access are well below average, negatively impacting livestock body conditions and production. The Northern Inland Pastoral livelihood zone in Bari, Nugaal, and Sanaag Regions has been the most affected.

In the central regions, no rainfall has been reported in any rural livelihood zones. However, due to average and above-average rains in October and November, pasture and water conditions remain good across the livelihood zones of the central regions.

In the South, rainfall performance varied across regions from December 1 to 10. Dry conditions have been reported in Hiiraan, Middle Shabelle, Bakool and most parts of Lower Shabelle. Light showers fell in most parts of Gedo and Bay Regions. Middle and Lower Juba Regions received the highest amounts of rainfall, with moderate distribution in most areas. However, the remaining areas of the South, including Lower Shabelle, Bakool, and Hiiraan Regions, received little or no rainfall. Due to substantial amounts of rainfall received in October and November, standing crops continue to develop well and rangeland resources are ample and accessible.

The satellite-derived eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomaly indicates that vegetation levels are average throughout most of the country and above the 2001-to-2010 mean in most southern and central regions. However, vegetation remains below the 2001-to-2010 mean in Awdal, Bari, and Sanaag Regions in the North, and localized areas in Lower Shabelle, Lower and Middle Juba, and Gedo Regions in the South. The seven-day rainfall forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association’s Climate Prediction Center (NOAA/CPC) indicates likely rainfall amounts of 20-30 mm from December 14 to 20 in most southern and central regions and along the Indian Ocean coast. Most of the northern regions are likely to remain dry during the forecast period (Figure 4).

For more rain gauge data, please, contact so-hydro@faoswalim.org or visit www.faoswalim.org.

About this Report

FEWS NET will publish a Seasonal Monitor for Somalia every 10 days (dekad) through the end of the current October to December Deyr rainy season. The purpose of this document is to provide updated information on the progress of the Deyr season to facilitate contingency and response planning. This Somalia Seasonal Monitor is valid through December 20, 2015 and is produced in collaboration with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU) Somalia, the Somali Water and Land Information System (SWALIM), a number of other agencies, and several Somali non-governmental organizations (NGOs).

About this Report

The seasonal monitor, produced by the FEWS NET USGS regional scientist and FEWS NET Regional Technical Manager, updates rainfall totals, the impact on production, and the short-term forecast. It is produced every 20 days during the production season. Find more remote sensing information here.

 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics