Seasonal Monitor

Moderate Gu rains started in mid-April in many parts of South-Central

April 22, 2015

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.
Partners: 
USGS

Summary

Both satellite images and ground reports show moderate to heavy rains of 25 to 75 millimeters (mm) were received in many parts of the South and in Galgaduud Region. The rainfall estimate (RFE2) for April 11 to 20 shows that the rainfall was 10 to 50 mm below the 2001 to 2014 mean in most of the country (Figure 2). However, most parts of Bakool, Galgaduud, and Hiraan Regions and some parts of Gedo received 25 to 50 mm above the mean. Most of the northern regions remained dry from April 11 to 20 (Figure 1). 

Situation

In the Northwest, dry weather persisted in most of Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, and Togdheer Regions from April 11 to 20. Moderate showers were reported in the Hawd in Buhoodle District in Togdheer Region and in Lasanod District in Sool Region. There were pockets of rain near Dhahar village in Sanaag Region. These rains were sufficient to help replenish water sources and restore some pasture resources, but this was short lived as livestock were inmigrated from neighboring areas. Rains in the Hawd in Somali Region in Ethiopia were reported to be heavier and more widespread so livestock were migrated from the Hawd in northwestern Somalia to the other side of the border.

In the Northeast, moderate to light rainfall was reported in Hawd Pastoral, Addun Pastoral, and Nugal Valley Pastoral livelihood zones. Most of Bari Region, including Coastal Deeh Pastoral, Karkaar-Dharor Pastoral, East Golis Pastoral and Sool Plateau Pastoral livelihood zones, remained dry. However, due to a moderate amount of Todob rains in late March, pasture conditions are generally near average in the Northeast except in parts of East Golis Pastoral and Karkaar-Dharor Pastoral livelihood zones where there was less rain in March. Rains improved pasture and browse conditions and replenished berkads storing water.

In the central regions, most of Hawd and Addun Pastoral livelihood zones had moderate amounts of rain. Substantial precipitation was reported in Coastal Deeh Pastoral livelihood zone and the cowpea-growing agropastoral areas, supporting crop germination. In Hiraan, moderate to heavy rains with pockets of lighter rain were received in most pastoral, agropastoral, and riverine areas. Rain gauges collected 32 mm in Buloburte, 120 mm in Beletweyne, and 101 mm in Halgen. Recent rains enhanced pasture regeneration and increased water availability. Most water catchments are partially replenished, and dry-planted seeds have germinated.

In the South, satellite-derived rainfall estimates and field reports indicate that most parts of Bay, Bakool, Lower and Middle Juba, Lower and Middle Shabelle, and Gedo Regions recorded moderate to heavy rainfall, ranging from 10 to 75 mm, with typical temporal and spatial distribution. These rains have recharged water catchments, almost all of which were exhausted during the January to March Jilaal dry season. These rains were sufficient for seed germination as well as improving the condition of pasture and browse. In Middle Shabelle, the river level has risen, and this caused breakage at some points near Timire, Gumbe, Barey, and Xanoley villages, but these breakage points were later repaired using local resources. Rain gauges recorded 25 mm of rainfall over four rainy days in Baidoa in Bay Region, 40 mm over six rainy days in Xudur in Bakool Region. Rainfall was heavier as recorded by gauges  in Afgoi in Lower Shabelle where 54 mm fell and in Saakow in Middle Juba where 67 mm fell. In the riverine livelihood zones, reports indicate that most of the livestock have been migrated away from riverine areas and dhasheks, low swampy areas, and have been returned to wet season grazing areas.

Despite the moderate Todob rains in late March followed by ongoing average Gu rains, the effect of the near to below normal October to December Deyr  rains and warmer than average January to March Jilaal dry season are still observable in many areas. The satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for the April 11 to 20 illustrated below-average vegetation conditions compared to the 2001 to 2010 mean in most of the South and western part of the northwestern regions. In contrast, vegetation conditions have already substantially improved over the past several weeks in most of the North, the central Regions, and the Jubas, Bay, and some parts of Bakool and Lower Shabelle in southern Somalia (Figure 3). The seven-day weather forecast for April 23 to 29 indicates that most of the country will have moderate rainfall between 20 and 75 mm with pockets in agropastoral areas of Bay and in Coastal Deeh Pastoral livelihood zone of the central regions likely to receive more. However, most of Awdal and Bari Regions are expected to remain dry (Figure 4).

For more rain gauge data please, contact So-Hydro@fao.org or visit www.faoswalim.org.

About this Report

The seasonal monitor, produced by the FEWS NET USGS regional scientist and FEWS NET Regional Technical Manager, updates rainfall totals, the impact on production, and the short-term forecast. It is produced every 20 days during the production season. Find more remote sensing information here.

 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
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