Early-to-typical start of April-June gu rains in most areas in April, although limited precipitation in northeast

• The onset of the April to June gu rains was timely and favorable across most of the southern, central, and northwestern regions in Somalia, with localized flooding in some areas of the south in April, according to remote sensing data and corroborated by field information. However, the northeastern regions generally experienced a slow start to the seasonal rains with cumulative rainfall deficits in localized areas in April. Preliminary CHIRPS remote sensing data for April 1 to 30 indicate most southern regions received 100-300 millimeters (mm) of rainfall, while central and northwestern regions generally received 50-100 mm of rainfall (Figure 1). Compared to the long-term average (1981-2020), the cumulative rainfall in most of Somalia was slightly to moderately above average. However, Nugaal, Bari, eastern Sool, and Sanaag regions in the northeast received less than 50 mm of rainfall in April and ground information suggests this was significantly below typical levels. In riverine areas of Middle Shabelle – particularly in Jowhar district – flooding in April inundated farmland, damaged standing crops, displaced populations, and destroyed some road infrastructure. The forecast of moderate to heavy rainfall in the Ethiopian highlands through April 10 has led to the rise of Juba and Shabelle river water levels and increased the risk of flooding in Somalia’s riverine areas. As of April 30, FAO SWALIM river station gauge data, indicate river water levels at most active monitoring points are elevated and higher than the long-term mean, but below flood risk levels, except for Beledweyne, which has surpassed “moderate flood risk” levels. 
• In the northwest, rainfall was generally timely and light to moderate in most areas in April, though with some varying performance, according to field reports. Woqooyi Galbeed and localized areas of Awdal and Togdheer regions received moderate rainfall in April. Meanwhile, Northern Inland, East Golis and Hawd Pastoral livelihood zones in eastern Sool and Sanaag regions received only 10-25 mm in April, considerably less rainfall than in the rest of the northwest. Cumulatively, the April rainfall has contributed to continued pasture recovery from the deyr 2023 rains, boosting access to pasture and graze and providing opportunities for livestock migration from areas that have seen rainfall deficits.
• In the northeast, most pastoral livelihood zones in Bari, Nugaal, and northern Mudug experienced a delayed start to the gu rains, which typically begin in the first week of April. The rains began in mid to late April in most areas, especially in Addun Pastoral livelihood zone in northern Mudug, Northern Inland Pastoral livelihood zone in Nugaal and Bari, and East Golis Pastoral livelihood zone in Bari region, where localized light to moderate rainfall was recorded from April 21-30. However, in Coastal Deeh Pastoral livelihood zone in Bari and Mudug regions, rainfall was 45 to 75 percent of the long-term average in April. Overall, remote sensing data shows cumulative rainfall was average in April, although ground information suggests that the gu precipitation has largely been below typical levels. As a result, access to pasture and water is below average across most livelihood zones. 
• In the central regions, field reports indicate that the gu seasonal rains began on time in early-to-mid-April and sustained light to moderate levels, particularly Addun Pastoral and Cowpea Belt Agropastoral livelihood zones in southern Mudug and Galgaduud regions. However, remote sensing data and ground reports indicate the start of rainfall was relatively poor and below average in Hawd Pastoral livelihood zone. In most central regions, widespread moderate to light rainfall in the last 10 days of April positively impacted rangelands and crop fields, improving pastoralists’ access to pasture and water resources and supporting cowpea crop germination and development.   
• In the south, there has been a mixed onset and performance of the gu rains in April. In most of Lower Juba, southern Gedo, and Bay and Bakool regions, rainfall began earlier than normal in early April, while in Hiiraan, parts of the Shabelles, and Middle Juba regions, seasonal rains generally started on time in mid-April. Rainfall was moderate to light in most areas of the south and moderate to heavy in Juba, Bay, and southern Gedo regions. Accordingly, rainfall ranged from average to above average for most of the south and average to below average in parts of Hiiraan and Bakool regions. Rain gauge stations recorded the following cumulative rainfall amounts in April: 290 mm in Baydhaba (Bay), 240 mm in Beledweyne (Hiiraan), 190 mm in Saakow (Middle Juba), 151 mm in Afgooye (Lower Shabelle), and 8.2 mm in Jamaame (Lower Juba). While river water levels in both Juba and Shabelle regions are above typical levels with minimal flooding, riverine households in many villages, including Jowhar district of Middle Shabelle region experienced damaging flooding in April due to the many open river breakages. Overall, the April rainfall positively impacted rangelands and the emergence and development of gu crops. However, the risk of flooding in riverine areas is preventing many farmers from engaging in gu cropping. 
• According to the eVIIRS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for April 21-30, most central and northwestern areas show positive vegetation anomalies, attributable to favorable deyr 2023 rainfall followed by generally favorable gu rainfall in April. However, widespread negative anomalies persist in other parts of central and northeastern regions, where the impacts of the dry January-March jilaal season and delayed or limited gu precipitation have not yet supported pasture recovery (Figure 3). The NOAA Climate Prediction Center's 7-day forecast ending May 10 projects that widespread moderate to heavy rainfall is expected in most areas of the country, boosting the gains seen in April. Forecasted heavy rainfall in the Ethiopian highlands is expected to maintain the elevated river water levels with possible flooding in areas with open breakages, particularly in the Hiiraan and Shabelle regions. 

For more rain gauge data, please contact So-Hydro@fao.org or visit www.faoswalim.org.