Drought-stricken Somalia sees a poor start of the gu rains in the south, with little to no rain elsewhere

A delayed, uneven, and below-average start of the gu rains has brought little relief to drought-affected Somalia. Typically, the gu rains gradually begin from mid-to-late March to early April, moving from the south to the north. Many southern areas experienced at least a 10-day delay in the start of the gu rainfall, while the rains have yet to become fully established in central and northern Somalia. According to CHIRPS preliminary remote sensing data for April 1-20, most southern areas received 25-50 millimeters (mm) of rainfall, while localized areas of Bay, Bakool, and the Juba regions received rainfall amounts up to 75 mm (Figure 1). Conversely, large parts of central and northwestern Somalia only received 10-25 mm, and most of the northeast received less than 10 mm. Compared to the 39-year average, rainfall is 10-100 mm below average across most of the south and a large part of the northwest. Although rainfall during the April 1-20 period is considered climatologically average in most of northeastern and central Somalia and southern coastal areas, ground conditions are extraordinarily dry (Figure 2). According to the most recent FAO SWALIM river station gauge data on April 20, water levels in both the Shabelle and Juba Rivers remain moderately to significantly below the long-term mean.

In the northwest, the gu rainfall season has yet to become fully established due to meager rainfall quantities to date. During the April 1-20 period, only parts of Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, and Togdheer regions received localized, light to moderate rain in the middle of the month. According to key informants, the rain has slightly benefitted water and pasture availability in agropastoral areas of Gabiley district of Woqooyi Galbeed; West Golis Pastoral livelihood zone of Borama district of Awdal; and Hawd Pastoral livelihood zone of Hargeysa districts of Woqooyi Galbeed. Little to no rainfall occurred in Sool and Sanaag regions, which are pastoral areas. Overall, northwestern Somalia continues to endure moderate to severe drought, and ground conditions are driest in Sool and Sanaag.

In the northeast, the gu rainfall season has yet to become fully established, with little to no precipitation reported across Bari, Nugaal, and northern Mudug regions since March. According to ground reports, only parts of Hawd Pastoral livelihood zone of Nugaal and North Mudug received localized light showers, which were inadequate to regenerate water and pasture. The delayed rains follow a failed 2021 deyr rainfall season when much of the northeast received less than 25 mm of rain. As a result, severe drought persists across the northeast, and above-average temperatures are worsening the scarcity of pasture and water resources.

In central regions, the start of the gu rainfall season is similarly delayed, with little to no rainfall occurring across most of Galgaduud and southern Mudug regions since March. Only Hawd Pastoral of Dhusamareb district and Addun Pastoral of Galkacyo, Hobyo, and Ceelbuur districts received localized moderate rainfall. Central Somalia already had one of the driest deyr seasons on record in late 2021, and conditions are currently indicative of severe to extreme drought with widespread pasture and water scarcity. 

In the south, dry conditions persisted through early April, followed by the onset of the gu rains in most regions in mid-April. Despite the start of the season, rainfall is 40-70 percent below average in large parts of the south, which is inadequate to alleviate drought conditions. Moderate to heavy rainfall occurred across much of Bay, Bakool, and the Juba regions in mid-April. Satellite-derived data also indicate moderate rainfall occurred in parts of Gedo and the Shabelle regions, though ground reports indicate dry conditions persisted in the Shabelle regions. Finally, most of Hiiraan received little to no rainfall, except for very localized pastoral and agropastoral areas in Beledweyne and Jalalaqsi districts. Rain gauge stations recorded 60 mm in Baydhaba (Bay), 60 mm in Saakow (Middle Juba), 37.3 mm in Qansaxdheere (Bay), 27 mm in Xudur (Bakool), 20.5 mm in Beledweyne (Hiiraan), 20 mm in Jamaame (Lower Juba), and 6.5 mm in Janaale (Lower Juba). The Juba and Shabelle Rivers remain moderately to significantly below the long-term mean. However, river water levels are beginning to swell following the initial onset of the gu rainfall inland and on the Ethiopian highlands.

According to the satellite-derived eVIIRS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for April 11-20, negative vegetation anomalies are widespread. Enormous deficits are visible in the southern and central regions, indicative of poor cropping and pasture conditions (Figure 3) due to the cumulative effect of the four-season drought. The NOAA Climate Prediction Center's seven-day weather forecast through April 30 predicts dry conditions will persist over most of central and northern Somalia. However, southern regions and the western sector of the northwest are expected to receive light to moderate rainfall (Map 4).

For more rain gauge data, please contact So-Hydro@fao.org or visit www.faoswalim.org.