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Gu 2014 rains started, but were largely below normal amounts in most of the country

  • Seasonal Monitor
  • Somalia
  • April 24, 2014
Gu 2014 rains started, but were largely below normal amounts in most of the country

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  • Summary
  • Situation
  • Partner
    USGS

    Summary
    A dry spell persisted in most parts of the country from April 1 to 10. However, moderate to light rains were received in between late March and early April in some parts of the South including in Middle and Lower Juba, Bay, and southern Gedo, in the Northwest including in the Hawd and West Golis Pastoral livelihood zones in Togdheer and Woqooyi Galbeed Regions, and in localized areas of the cowpea belt in the central regions. These rains have eased water stress and supported the regeneration of pasture. From April 11 to 20, field reports and satellite imagery indicate light to moderate rains between 10 and 75 millimeters (mm) were received in most of the southern regions. However, there was no rainfall or only very light rains in most of the central and northern regions (Figure 1). The rainfall estimate (RFE2) for April 11 to 20 compared to the 2000 to 2013 mean has only below average rains for most parts of the country. However, most parts of the Juba and Bay Regions received above normal amounts of rain (Figure 2).

    Situation

    In the Northwest, localized, light to moderate rains with poor frequency were received from April 11 to 20 in agropastoral areas of Borama District in Awdal Region and the Hawd in Hargeysa District. However, most agropastoral and pastoral areas of Togdheer, Sanaag, Sool, and Woqooyi Galbeed Regions remained dry in the first half of April. In West Golis and Guban Pastoral livelihood zones in Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed Regions, seasonably typical, dry weather persisted. Despite the dry weather conditions, land preparation is ongoing at a normal time in Northwest and Togdheer Agropastoral livelihood zones. Similarly, in the Northeast, no rainfall was reported in most pastoral areas, but some light showers were reported in the Hawd in Burtinle District. Water in berkads was depleted due to higher than normal temperatures during the dry January to March Jilaal season. The dry conditions were prolonged into the first three weeks of April. Later than usual water trucking is ongoing.

    Most parts of the Hawd, Addun, and Coastal Deeh Pastoral livelihood zones in the central regions of Galgaduud and southern Mudug remained dry. However, pockets Hawd Pastoral livelihood zone in Galakayo and Adado Districts received light showers. Localized, moderate rains were received in Central Agropastoral livelihood zone, the cowpea belt, in Elbur and Elder Districts. Following these rains, cowpea and sorghum planting was reported. Partial water point replenishment and pasture regeneration have also been observed.

    In the southern regions, moderately well distributed, light to moderate rains with pockets of heavy precipitation were reported in pastoral and agropastoral areas. However, most parts of Lower and Middle Shabelle, Hiraan, parts of Bakool, and Gedo along with the areas of Coastal Deeh livelihood zone in the South and areas further inland remained dry. The rain gauges in Jowhar in Middle Shabelle, Baidoa, Qansaxdhere, and Dinsor in Bay recorded 105 mm, 83 mm, 72 mm, and 62 mm of rainfall, respectively. Recent rains have supported seed germination, enhanced pasture conditions, and increased water availability with most water catchments now being replenished in most rainfed, agropastoral areas of the South.

    As result of near to below normal October to December Deyr 2013 rains and hotter than normal January to March Jilaal dry season followed by no rain or only light rains in April, the satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for the April 11 to 20 depicted significantly below average vegetation conditions compared to the 2001 to 2010 mean in most of the North, the central regions, coastal areas of the Jubas and Shabelles, and parts of Hiraan and Bakool Regions. In contrast, vegetation conditions have improved in most of the South and parts of the cowpea belt in Galgaduud Region in central Somalia over the previous few weeks (Figure 3). The seven-day weather forecast for April 23 to 29 indicates that most of Bay, Bakool, northern Gedo, some agropastoral areas in Lower Shabelle in Kurtunwarey, Qoryoley, and Sablale Districts, and Sakow District in Middle Juba Region will experience light rains. The rains will intensify in the western parts of the Northwest. However, the rest of the country is forecast to remain dry (Figure 4).

    For more rain gauge data, please, contact So-Hydro@fao.org or visit www.faoswalim.org.

    Figures Figure 1. Estimated rainfall totals (RFE2), April 11 to 20, 2014 in millimeters (mm)

    Figure 1

    Figure 1. Estimated rainfall totals (RFE2), April 11 to 20, 2014 in millimeters (mm)

    Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

    Figure 2: April 11 to 20, 2014 rainfall anomaly in mm from 2000 to 2013 mean

    Figure 2

    Figure 2: April 11 to 20, 2014 rainfall anomaly in mm from 2000 to 2013 mean

    Source: NOAA

    Figure 3. eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomaly from 2001-2010 mean, April 11 to 20, 2014

    Figure 3

    Figure 3. eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomaly from 2001-2010 mean, April 11 to 20, 2014

    Source: U.S. Geological Survey/FEWS NET

    Figure 4. Global Forecast System (GFS) rainfall forecast in mm for April 25 to May 1, 2014

    Figure 4

    Figure 4. Global Forecast System (GFS) rainfall forecast in mm for April 25 to May 1, 2014

    Source: NOAA

    FEWS NET’s Seasonal Monitor reports are produced for Central America and the Caribbean, West Africa, East Africa, Central Asia, and Somalia every 10-to-30 days during the region’s respective rainy season(s). Seasonal Monitors report updates on weather events (e.g., rainfall patterns) and associated impacts on ground conditions (e.g., cropping conditions, pasture and water availability), as well as the short-term rainfall forecast. Find more remote sensing information here.

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