Recent gains will be short-lived due to anticipated below-average rains

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Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected across most pastoral, agropastoral, and riverine areas of Somalia through at least January. Meanwhile, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected to persist in settlements of populations displaced by weather and conflict shocks. Significantly below-average gu harvests in July, followed by anticipated below-average deyr harvests in January due to forecasted, La Niña-induced rainfall deficits in late 2024, are expected to limit food availability and access. In addition, while livestock herd recovery and productivity has significantly improved relative to recent drought years, below-average rainfall in late 2024 is expected to stall this trend. Below-normal herd sizes will remain a limiting factor for household income-earning and access to food amid elevated imported staple cereal prices, especially in central pastoral areas.
In riverine areas along the Shabelle and Juba rivers, recovery from the gu season floods – which resulted in very poor main season harvests – is underway as off-season flood recession harvests are ongoing. Although an estimated 65 percent of farmland remained inundated in September, off-season staple and cash crops harvests are expected to be above average. For instance, approximately 3,000 hectares of riverine cropland were harvested in late August/September in Middle Shabelle – one of the most severely flood-affected areas – contributing an estimated 3,500 metric tons (MT) of rice and over 1,500 MT of maize, as well as cash crops such as cowpea, sesame, and vegetables. The harvests are improving market and household food availability and agricultural labor income-earning opportunities. Maize prices declined to 5,000 SOS/kg in September, and vegetable prices have dropped by 50 percent from pre-harvest levels and are 27 to 45 percent below the five-year average. These nascent improvements will likely stagnate, however, once the deyr rainy season begins. Despite the below-average rainfall forecast, there is a high likelihood of renewed flooding due to river breakages and damaged flood management infrastructure. This is anticipated to suppress main season deyr cultivation and income from agricultural labor and crop sales.
In southern agropastoral areas, the below-average 2024 gu harvest and anticipated below-average deyr cultivation are limiting food availability and access. Bay Bakool Low Potential Agropastoral and Sorghum High Potential Agropastoral livelihood zones are of highest concern. The depth of acute food insecurity is being partially mitigated by a seasonal decline in local cereal prices, especially given an influx of main and off-season supplies from the high-potential production areas in Bay and Lower Shabelle regions and riverine areas. The steepest price declines from August are observed for Sorghum in Bay and Maize in Middle Juba and Middle Shabelle, with maize dropping up to 40 percent compared to the five-year average in Middle Juba. In addition, demand among better-off households for agricultural labor during the deyr season is expected provide most poor households with seasonal income, enabling them to both purchase food and partially pay down debts accumulated from prior purchases of agricultural inputs and food. However, there is high concern for worsening food insecurity in the period beyond January, after anticipated below-average stocks from the deyr harvest are depleted.
In northwestern agropastoral areas, the above-average July to September karan rains boosted gu crop development and replenished pasture and browse, offsetting the poor gu rainy season. However, the gu harvest is still significantly below average and most households are expected to harvest these crops for fodder sales and to prioritize feeding their livestock rather than own-consumption, as livestock production will be a more viable source of income. Poor households will likely experience food consumption gaps until the karan harvest becomes available in November/December, given that income from cattle milk sales is currently seasonally low, white sorghum prices in Hargeysa are at a record high (11,000 SLS/kg in September), and imported rice prices are elevated. Household access to food and income are expected to relatively improve after October, when medium levels of goat kidding and increased milk availability, seasonal income from cash crop sales and cash gifts, and the expected below-average karan harvest will become available.
In northern and central pastoral areas – which are climatologically drier than the south even during a normal year – poor households’ access to food will remain limited by below-normal livestock holdings, inadequate water and pasture resources, rising prices of imported rice and wheat flour, and anticipated below-average deyr rainfall. Insufficient income derived from livestock and milk sales is constraining the ability of poor households to cover the high cost of food, livestock inputs, and other essential non-food expenses. The anticipated below-average deyr rainfall season is expected to have the greatest adverse impact on central Somalia’s Addun Pastoral and Coastal Deeh Pastoral livelihood zones, where the impacts of the 2020-2023 drought were comparably worse than other pastoral areas and where ongoing local conflict, insecurity, and inter-clan dynamics constrain livestock migration opportunities. Consequently, while Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected at the area level, an increasing number of households in these areas are expected to deteriorate to Emergency (IPC Phase 4) through January.
In contrast to the rest of Somalia, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected in southern pastoral areas, where livestock production has benefitted significantly from two consecutive above-average rainfall seasons. Livestock herd recovery has been strongest in the south across cattle, camels, and goats/sheep. Pasture, browse, and water availability are good for the off-season and will likely buffer the negative impacts of the expected below-average deyr rainy season. Livestock births during the deyr will offer significant, seasonal increases in milk availability, especially as livestock return to wet-season grazing areas to consume crop residues. Household access to food will benefit from milk consumption and increased income from milk and livestock sales, and the cost of food is generally lower than in north-central pastoral areas given their access to locally produced maize and sorghum in neighboring agropastoral and riverine areas.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Somalia Key Message Update September 2024: Recent gains will be short-lived due to anticipated below-average rains, 2024.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.