Many areas still in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) prior to the start of the Deyr rainy season

Most northern and central livelihood zones are expected to improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) during the upcoming Deyr rainy season due to enhanced livestock productivity and fodder production, except for Northern Inland Pastoral livelihood zone in Sool and Sanaag, which would be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) without food assistance. Although humanitarian food assistance enabled Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes in Guban Pastoral livelihood zone in September, future funding is unconfirmed and poor households would be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) through January without sustained assistance. However, Xays rainfall and a medium level of livestock births in December to January is expected to contribute to long-term livestock herd recovery.

In Northwestern Agropastoral livelihood zone, a below-average Gu harvest, reduced income from livestock and milk sales, and limited carryover sorghum stocks are driving Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes despite the availability of horticultural crops and imported Ethiopian sorghum. Although the Karan harvest is also likely to be below average due to erratic rainfall and stalk-borer infestation, poor households will begin meeting their minimum food needs and will improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in November.

Riverine livelihood zones in Gedo and Hiiraan remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) following Gu flooding that led to below-average harvests and incomes. In contrast, most riverine households in Middle and Lower Juba have improved to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) due to low-priced maize supply from neighboring regions, an above-average off-season Gu harvest, and improved labor-to-maize terms of trade. Although Deyr cultivation will begin normally, forecast average to above-average Deyr rainfall is expected to cause significant flooding in Gedo and Hiiraan, disrupting activities and sustaining Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes.

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist across most IDP settlements, particularly among pastoralists who became destitute after extreme livestock losses in the 2016/2017 drought and are continuing to have difficulty meeting their minimum food needs. In several IDP camps, food security and livelihood coping outcomes suggest some IDP households may be in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5)[1] in the absence of humanitarian food assistance. In Bossaso, seasonal sea tides have disrupted port and trade activities and pushed IDPs into Emergency (IPC Phase 4), which is likely to persist until after October when trade and labor opportunities resume.

[1] According to the IPC, a Famine (IPC Phase 5) has occurred when at least 20 percent of households in a given area have an extreme lack of food, the Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) prevalence, as measured by weight-for-height z-score (WHZ), exceeds 30 percent, and mortality, as measured by the Crude Death Rate (CDR), is greater than 2 per 10,000 per day. Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) is when a household group has an extreme lack of food and/or other basic needs even with full employment of coping strategies.