Above-average Gu/Karan harvest in northwestern Somalia improving food security

Although Gu production was below average in southern and central Somalia, in Northwestern Agropastoral livelihood zone, the July Gu harvest was average and the November Karan harvest is estimated to be 96 percent above average. Production has replenished household and market stocks and supported food price decreases in August. Although incomes from livestock and milk sales remain low due to poor conception rates during the 2015/2016 Deyr season, access to own cultivation is supporting household improvement to Stressed (IPC Phase 2). 

In Southern Rainfed Agropastoral livelihood zone of Middle and Lower Juba and Lower Shabelle, most poor households have exhausted their limited stocks from the below-average Gu harvest and are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). However, food access has improved slightly in September with the arrival of Gu off-season production in neighboring riverine areas, which is supporting reduced cereal prices and providing crop gifts (zakat) to poor households in this livelihood zone. 

The price of sorghum in surplus-producing markets has increased slightly between June and August. In Bay, the price of sorghum increased three percent over this time period, compared to the typical seasonal decline of around 10 percent. This increase is attributed to both below-average Gu production and farmers and traders withholding stocks from markets in expectation of higher prices between October and December.