Food insecurity worsens as January to March jilaal dry season approaches

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A severe drought is expected across most of Somalia, driving widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes. The number of poor households in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) is expected to rise through May. Area-level Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected to emerge in Addun Pastoral and Bay/Bakool Low Potential Agropastoral livelihood zones and neighboring internally displaced persons (IDPs) settlements by February. Slow recovery from the 2020-2023 drought has left areas highly vulnerable to additional weather shocks, compounding the potential impacts of current rainfall deficits and the below-average deyr season.
The October to December deyr season is critical for livestock and crop production; however, the 2025 deyr rains began late and extremely limited rainfall has been recorded. Many areas have received less than 30 percent of average rainfall as of November 30, with the most extreme deficits, exceeding 100 mm, occurring in the far southern regions. As of the end of November, rainfall totals are comparable to the driest seasons on record (since 1981) in parts of Somalia. Most concerningly, the regions of Bay, Gedo, the Jubas, and north and central Somalia have received almost no rain, with totals resembling record-dry seasons. October and November temperatures have also been among the hottest on record, intensifying crop and pasture stress. By late-November, vegetation conditions are very poor, with NDVI negative anomalies worse than the same period in 2021.
In parts of southern agropastoral and riverine areas, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are ongoing. Most farmers delayed planting due to the late rainfall. Only a few districts planted sorghum, and crops wilted following a prolonged dry spell. Agricultural labor demand is significantly below normal due to the limited and extremely poor cultivation. Any standing crops are expected to wilt and be sold as fodder. According to field reports from Bay region, only marginal harvests are expected in irrigated riverine areas, while harvests in other areas are expected to be as little as 0 to 10 percent of average. Following an anticipated failed January deyr harvest, farmers are likely to face an extended lean season through at least May with little to no cereal stocks or income from crop sales. Household purchasing power will remain constrained, driven by increasing staple food prices and limited agricultural labor. Households will increasingly rely on social support and purchasing food on credit.
In riverine livelihood zones in Gedo, Hiraan, and parts of Shabelle, irrigation systems have supported crop establishment, though access to irrigation remains strained. Declining river water levels that remain below last year's and the long-term mean, compounded by weak irrigation regulation policies and overuse by upstream farms, are limiting irrigation access. Farmers in Hiraan and the Shabelles are cutting irrigated maize and sorghum for fodder due to the persistent dryness. In downstream areas of Lower Shabelle (Barava, Kurtunwaareey, Qoryoley, and Sablaale districts), farmers suspended cropping activities due to the lack of rainfall. Labor opportunities are limited to crop irrigation and fodder cutting, providing fewer days of work and lower wages compared to typical harvest and weeding periods. Households are resorting to seasonally atypical coping strategies, including selling timber (for construction), fish, and swamp brush (for fodder); increased consumption of wild foods; and household member migration to towns in search of work.
In northern and central pastoral areas, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are widespread, with a growing proportion of the population facing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes. Livestock body conditions and milk productivity are deteriorating due to depleted rangeland resources, particularly among milking and older animals. Medium to low kidding and lambing occurred; however, some households are culling offspring to preserve breeding stock. Livestock starvation has increased, and milk production has sharply declined, limiting household access to milk for consumption and sale. Camel calving remains low, and fresh camel milk prices have risen sharply, increasing by 20-50 percent compared to October 2024, driven by significantly reduced market supply. Livestock body conditions and milk availability are expected to worsen during the upcoming jilaal dry season (January–March), increasing the risk of livestock mortality and further reducing household food and income access. Water trucking resumed atypically early at the peak of the deyr season, increasing household costs. Water prices are mixed across northern and central rural areas but remain 10-23 percent above the five-year average and are anticipated to increase further through the end of March.
In October, maize and sorghum prices were 10-25 percent above the five-year average in key reference markets in southern Somalia, driven by poor prospects for the upcoming deyr harvest and low remaining stocks from the July gu harvest and off-season production in September. Limited cereal flows from Ethiopia and southern Somalia to central and northern regions are contributing to the above-average prices of local cereals in central and northern markets. Prices will likely increase and persist at above-average levels through at least May, driven by reduced supply from meager deyr harvests amid high demand. The retail prices of imported foods such as rice, wheat flour, and sugar at port markets in Mogadishu, Bossaso, and Berbera were stable or decreased slightly due to ample global production. However, in most central and northern markets, imported food prices are 5-25 percent above the five-year average due to SOS depreciation, local taxes, and high fuel prices.
IDPs continue to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes amid severely constrained labor opportunities, declining incomes, and high staple food prices. Drought and conflict continue to drive households into IDP settlements and strain limited local resources; a surge in drought-induced displacement is expected through December and will further increase competition for scarce resources and labor opportunities, as households exhaust their coping capacity. Most IDPs lack own cereal stocks and agricultural labor income, leaving them entirely dependent on markets, overstretched social support networks, and very low humanitarian assistance. Food insecurity outcomes are expected to deteriorate through May, with the most vulnerable populations at heightened risk of severe hunger and malnutrition. Poor sanitation and overcrowding in settlements are contributing to increased disease incidence, further eroding coping capacity and exacerbating food insecurity.
Humanitarian assistance in October was severely constrained by funding shortfalls, leading to reduced or suspended operations. Worsening drought conditions across northern, central, and southern regions coincided with declining assistance, heightening acute food insecurity and malnutrition. The number of people reached in October was 30 percent below the planned target and 21 percent lower than in September. Notably, assistance to IDPs increased by 26 percent compared to September, partially offsetting overall declines.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Somalia Key Message Update November 2025: Food insecurity worsens as January to March jilaal dry season approaches, 2025.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.