Gu harvest in southern regions likely to be below average

Northern Inland Pastoral livelihood zone received localized, moderate rains in April and May, although total cumulative rainfall was insufficient to fully restore pasture and water resources. This aggravates already dry conditions that resulted from below-average 2015 Deyr rains, influenced by El Niño. Atypical livestock deaths continued to occur in April and few households have saleable livestock. With limited access to income, food security in this livelihood zone continues to deteriorate and many households remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). 

Average to above-average March to May Gu rainfall was received in agropastoral and pastoral areas of Bay, Bakool, Lower Juba, Middle Juba, most northwestern regions, and parts of Gedo, Nugal, Mudug. It is expected the July/August Gu harvest and livestock reproduction in these areas will be average. Livestock production has seasonally increased, improving food security in most livelihood zones. 

As a result of poorly distributed Gu rainfall in Lower Shabelle, many cash crops wilted, reducing agricultural labor opportunities and farmers’ income. Water resources for irrigated cropping remain limited and the harvest is expected to be below average. Farmers in Merka District have access to river water, but districts downstream of the Shabelle, including Qoryoley, Kurtunwarey, Sbalale, and Barava, have little or no water for irrigation. Household food security is likely to improve only slightly with the June Gu harvest. 

Food security is expected to deteriorate in the Southern Rainfed Agropastoral livelihood zone where poor Gu rainfall has reduced agricultural labor demand, limiting income-earning opportunities for poor households. From March to April, maize prices increased between 21 and 48 percent across the livelihood zone, further restricting household food access. Food security will improve in June with the Gu harvest, although only slightly given the likelihood of below-average production.