Needs likely to increase with forecasted below-average October-December rains

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As of late 2024, FEWS NET projected Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes would become increasingly widespread across Somalia through May 2025, while Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes were expected in Bay-Bakool Low Potential Agropastoral livelihood zone and multiple internally displaced persons (IDP) settlements. Approximately 4.0-4.99 million people (20-25 percent of the population) were projected to need urgent food assistance, coinciding with the pastoral lean season in February-March and the cropping lean season in March-June. FEWS NET’s assessment was driven by expectations of a significantly below-average deyr harvest in January 2025 and stagnation in livestock recovery due to poor rainfall in late 2024 and early 2025, which largely occurred as projected.
The 2025 gu rainfall season (April-June) was mixed, with substantial rainfall deficits in parts of northern and central Somalia and average to above-average performance in much of the south. In most northern and central livelihood zones, the below-average gu rainfall had poor temporal and spatial distribution. Northern Inland, Guban, West Golis, Addun, and Coastal Deeh Pastoral livelihood zones were particularly impacted, as well as most agropastoral livelihood zones in the northwest, where the season was among the driest or second driest on record, resulting in moderate-to-severe drought conditions and atypically poor pasture conditions. In the south, gu rainfall ranged from average to above-average levels, which supported gu crop production and replenished pastures and water reserves. However, in northern Gedo and parts of Bakool regions, precipitation was below average. In areas where rainfall deficits have led to poor harvests, household crop production and food stocks are reduced, limiting food access.
Somalia is expected to face worsening food insecurity through December, with peak assistance needs occurring from July to September. Persisting drought, conflict, and displacement are constraining poor households’ food access despite stable and lower-than-average cereal prices. Funding shortfalls have constrained humanitarian operations. The Food Security Cluster reported assistance reached less than 20 percent of targeted beneficiaries in June, and the 2025 Humanitarian Needs Response Plan is funded at only 16 percent in 2025 by mid-year, lower than the 32 percent funding in 2024. A significantly below-average deyr rainfall will likely increase food insecurity countrywide from October to December.
The October to December 2025 deyr season is forecast to be below-average; a third consecutive below-average season for parts of central and northern Somalia. The resulting persistent drought conditions, coupled with intensified conflict in much of Sanaag, is expected to drive worsening food insecurity through December in northern Somalia. Assistance needs are likely to peak between July to September, and northwestern agropastoral areas are of highest concern. Amid likely increasing food aid needs, funding shortfalls will constrain humanitarian operations.
Below-average deyr rainfall would drive higher food assistance needs through its significant impact on key food and income sources – livestock and crops – across Somalia. Young, lactating, and older livestock will have increased mortality risks; saleable livestock will decrease due to poor body conditions; and milk availability will significantly decrease for both household consumption and sale. Reduced crop production or failure will result in lower income from decreased agricultural labor opportunities. Impacts will be the worst in the north and central regions, where conditions are already atypically dry due to below-average 2024-2025 deyr and 2025 gu rains, and pastoralists in these areas will likely resort to more severe coping strategies, including livestock culling, distress migration, and increased reliance on bush product sales and social support. The exact impacts depend heavily on whether the forecast materializes, and the severity and location of deficits; uncertainty exists given a long forecast lead time.
In most pastoral areas of central and northern Somalia, poor households continue to face food insecurity due to conflict and weather shocks (including recurrent drought, erratic rainfall, and water scarcity). Consecutive seasons of below-average rainfall have limited rangeland replenishment and driven poor pasture conditions, resulting in poor livestock body conditions, low birth rates, reduced milk production (for both households own consumption and sale), and decreased livestock holdings. Even areas with comparatively better livestock conditions due to near-average rainfall (such as Hawd Pastoral livelihood zone) are experiencing poor to near-normal body conditions, with lactating and older animals the most affected. Conflict and weather shocks have also constrained other income-earning opportunities (including self-employment), forcing households to rely on overstretched coping mechanisms (e.g., charcoal and firewood sales, borrowing, and community support), which are insufficient to meet minimum food and non-food needs.
Gu crop harvesting is underway in most agropastoral and riverine areas in southern Somalia. Due to favorable rains and limited flooding, average harvests are likely in the major maize and sorghum production regions of Bay and Lower Shabelle. However, poor rainfall and prolonged dry spells have reduced yields in Bakool, Gedo, and Hiiraan. Conflict in Hiiraan has also forced many poorer farmers to flee farming areas, further disrupting production. Xagaa showers, though below average, are expected to support late-planted crops and pasture in Shabelle and Juba regions; however, rainfall in Middle Shabelle may not offset earlier gu deficits. In the Cowpea Belt, pests, disease, and conflict have lowered production, and below-average yields are likely. Despite expected average sorghum and maize harvests in Bay and Lower Shabelle, production is insufficient to compensate for shortfalls in the worst-affected regions and the national gu staple crop production is likely to be below average.
Due to poor gu rainfall, most farms went unplanted in the agropastoral zones in northwest Somalia, and limited harvest is anticipated. The karan rainfall is forecast to be above average, and karan season cultivation has commenced in the northwest; however, the likelihood of achieving a meaningful harvest by November remains unlikely due to the missed gu rains in April-June (these areas do not receive deyr rains). Poor harvests are expected to increase food insecurity in the region, as households will lack sufficient yields for sale and consumption, compounded by reduced coping strategy options. Most pastoralists have relocated their cattle to Ethiopia following the poor gu rains and therefore cannot rely on milk sales or a market for crop fodder sales. While karan rains are anticipated to improve pasture and enable the return of livestock, milk production is likely to remain low as most livestock are dry and preparing for conception.
Persistent drought, below-average gu rainfall, debt burdens, reduced food assistance following funding cuts, and localized escalations in conflict have compounded the humanitarian crisis facing IDPs in the north and central regions, Mogadishu, and Beletweyne. Low income-generating opportunities – especially for casual labor, petty trade, and the many informal activities undertaken in urban areas, including street vending, handicrafts, and domestic work – coupled with an influx of displaced people from rural areas affected by conflict, have eroded purchasing power among IDP households and intensified competition for income-generating opportunities within IDP settlements and urban areas. These pressures have severely constrained access to food and essential services in overcrowded settlements, deepening levels of acute food insecurity, and heightening the urgency for sustained and targeted assistance.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Somalia Key Message Update July 2025: Needs likely to increase with forecasted below-average October-December rains, 2025.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.