Poor gu crop production is likely to increase food assistance needs

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In July, gu harvesting commenced in some south-central agropastoral and riverine areas of Somalia, supporting temporary improvement in access to food and income. However, preliminary findings from the post-gu crop assessment conducted by FSNAU, FEWS NET, and other partners in July indicate national crop production will be significantly below average. Despite the cumulatively above-average April to June gu rainfall totals, the poor temporal distribution and the atypically early cessation of rains in early May and dry conditions through June, floods in riverine areas, conflict-driven displacement, and pest infestations have resulted in large cereal and cash crop losses during the gu season. The largest deficits are expected in Bay/Bakool Low Potential Agropastoral livelihood zone - which is highly crop dependent - and severely flood-affected riverine areas. Consequently, the riverine areas of Middle Shabelle and Gedo regions will likely continue to face Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes through September, with improvement to area-level Crisis (IPC Phase 3) by January. In Bay/Bakool Low Potential Agropastoral livelihood zone, area-level Crisis (IPC Phase 3) remains most likely; however, an increased proportion of households will likely face Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes than previously projected. Meanwhile, in livestock-supported agropastoral areas, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are likely through January, sustained by supplemental income from livestock production.
In riverine areas, off-season recession planting is underway in Hiiraan, Middle Shabelle, Lower and Middle Juba, and Gedo regions in July. While the early cessation of gu rains in May led to a temporary decrease in river water levels along the Juba and Shabelle rivers, FAO SWALIM river station gauge data indicates river levels remain well above the long-term average levels at most stations as of July 31. Continued water recession during the xagaa dry season is expected to support favorable conditions for off-season production in some agropastoral and riverine areas; however, in the worst flood-affected areas, much of the riverine cropland reportedly remains inundated with floodwater and damages to the river and irrigation infrastructure remain unrepaired in July. This, as well as poor financial access to agricultural inputs, is limiting off-season crop production prospects in these areas. Engagement in off-season planting in areas without standing floodwater is supporting a slight increase in income-generating opportunities for poor households in July, though the income is insufficient to mitigate food consumption gaps.
Following the early cessation of gu rain, the July to September xagaa dry season in the south commenced with drier than normal conditions. In contrast to previous forecasts, the seasonal July to August xagaa showers in southern Somalia were up to 25 percent below average in July, according to CHIRPS data. This has caused some moisture stress to late-planted gu crops and early-planted off season crops in affected agropastoral and adjacent riverine areas. Updated forecasts suggest the xagaa showers will likely be cumulatively below average, as little improvement is anticipated in August.
As projected in June, in agropastoral areas in the northwest, both short-cycle sorghum and maize crops are expected to fail due to prolonged dry spells and poor rainfall, leaving poor households primarily reliant on income from crop fodder and minimal milk and livestock sales. In the Togdheer Agropastoral livelihood zone, area-level Crisis (IPC Phase 3) is expected to persist through January 2025, although with an increasing number of households in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). Meanwhile, in the Northwestern Agropastoral livelihood zone, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) is expected through January, and above-average karan rains in July and August are anticipated to support slightly more favorable long-cycle sorghum karan harvests in November and help mitigate more severe food security outcomes.
In most pastoral areas, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are assessed to continue, supported by favorable livestock births and increasing herd sizes, as well as increased livestock productivity and milk availability for consumption and sales during the gu season. Despite the early cessation of gu rains and below-average xagaa showers, consecutive seasons of cumulatively above-average rainfall are supporting favorable water and pasture availability in most areas. Improved pasture conditions in the gu season facilitated normal livestock migration patterns, with herds moving close to homesteads, allowing for more consistent access to milk for consumption. However, the exceptions remain in parts of Addun and Coastal Deeh Pastoral livelihood zones, where Crisis (IPC Phase 3) likely persists. Households continue to have low livestock holdings and high debt accumulation. Additionally, the seasonal decline in livestock prices after the Hajj season amid high imported rice prices is causing declining purchasing capacity in these areas. The forecasted below-average October to December deyr rains will increase pressure on pastoralists' food and income sources, particularly in areas that have yet to fully recover from the 2020-22 drought, and an increasing number of households will likely experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through January.
In surplus-producing areas of the south, locally produced staple food prices slightly declined from June to July with the start of the gu harvest and prices are below the five-year average. In the Baidoa reference market, red sorghum prices were 9,300 Somalia Shilling (SOS)/kilogram (kg) in July, a slight decline from last month and the five-year average, and 17 percent higher than in July 2023. Meanwhile, in the Qorioley reference market, white maize grain prices averaged 9,200 SOS/kg, a 12-16 percent decline from last month and the five-year average, and relatively consistent with July 2023. The decrease in locally-produced prices in the south in July is likely partially due to the availability of some gu harvests, the release of carry-over stocks onto the market to repay debts ahead of the significantly below-average gu harvests. In northwestern agropastoral reference markets, white sorghum prices were 37 percent higher than last July, and 70 percent higher than the five-year average, due to consecutive near-failed harvests and amid reduced supply from the Somali region of Ethiopia. Displaced populations remain highly reliant on market purchases in July, due to extremely limited own-production in July. Even with slight downward trends in market prices, IDPs continue to have limited to no access to income and are unable to purchase sufficient food to close food consumption gaps. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected to persist among displaced populations through January.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Somalia Key Message Update July 2024: Poor gu crop production is likely to increase food assistance needs, 2024.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.