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Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes expected through September

  • Key Message Update
  • Somalia
  • July 2019
Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes expected through September

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  • Key Messages
  • Key Messages
    • In northern and central pastoral areas, moderate to heavy Gu rainfall in mid-May and early June improved pasture and water resources, leading to improved livestock body conditions and medium to high conceptions. Although livestock have atypically in-migrated from Coastal Deeh Pastoral and Fishing livelihood zone, pasture availability is now expected to sustain normal migration patterns in the July-September Xagaa season. Reduced expenditures on water, increased milk availability, and increased livestock value has slightly improved poor households’ access to food, but moderate to large food gaps remain pervasive. In northwest Northern Inland Pastoral and central-northeast Addun and Hawd Pastoral livelihood zones, humanitarian food assistance was significant enough to enable Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes in July. However, due to low livestock holdings and uncertainty that food assistance will continue at planned levels, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected in most areas in August and September.

    • In southern agropastoral areas, cumulative April-June Gu rainfall was below average and marked by severe deficits in coastal areas of Middle and Lower Shabelle. Preliminary field assessments indicate Gu harvests will be largely below average and it is expected most poor households will have one month or less of food stocks. Poor food availability, reduced income from agricultural labor, and rising cereal prices will drive Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes through September in Bay Bakool Low Potential, Sorghum High Potential, and Southern Rainfed Agropastoral livelihood zones as well as Coastal Deeh Pastoral and Fishing livelihood zone. Further, an increasing number of poor households are expected to deteriorate to Emergency (IPC Phase 4) from July to September. In Southern Agropastoral livelihood zone of Hiiraan, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) is expected due to crop failure.

    • In Northwestern Agropastoral livelihood zone, poor Gu rainfall performance reduced area planted with Gu/Karan maize and sorghum to an estimated 75 percent of average. A small proportion of maize is expected to be harvested in August, while the majority of the maize and sorghum harvest is expected in December. In Togdheer Agropastoral livelihood zone, Gu sorghum and grass fodder crop production is below average but better than previously expected, based on FEWS NET and FSNAU’s field observations in July. However, the quantity harvested in August will yet depend on the severity of seasonal flash floods from the July-September Karan rains. Current crop damage from desert locust was observed to be low to none in both agropastoral areas, and most eggs laid by recent swarms are not expected to hatch until the December-January Xeys rains. However, should these eggs hatch earlier during the harvesting period, the damage could be substantial. In both livelihood zones, below-average crop production is expected to sustain Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes through December, when own crop consumption and cash crop sales improve food availability and access.  

    • Locally produced cereal prices in surplus-producing areas in the South have atypically increased from June to July. In Baidoa (Bay) reference markets, the price of sorghum reached 8,500 SOS/kg, which is 61, 115, and 31 percent higher than the June 2019, July 2018, and five-year averages, respectively. The price of maize in Qoryoley (Lower Shabelle) markets reached 6,500 SOS/kg, which is 13 and 37 percent above the June 2019 and June 2018 averages but 7 percent below the five-year average. This increase is attributed to significantly below-average Gu production and the fact that farmers and traders are withholding stocks from the markets until August-September, when prices will be higher. In northwestern agropastoral reference markets, white sorghum prices recorded in June were 5 percent below the June 2018 average, but five percent above the five-year average. Cereal prices are generally following seasonal trends in other areas.

    This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.

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